Donald Trump

FogBlueInSanFran said:
I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).
Click to expand...

You beat me to this observation by 10 minutes.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Well, I'm all ears for what others think is the most reliable polling site.

538 seems pretty consistent with others I've seen, and all seem to show a slide towards Trump over the last few weeks, and basically too close to call.
Click to expand...
Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).
Click to expand...
I've suggested a few times she go to Florida and Texas. In Texas the Allred v Cruz fight is the obvious reason. But I'd suggest doing day after day in the same swing states is not news. If she did Penn and Georgia on alternating days for a week she could attend loads of events but it gets boring and loses impact.

Spend one day in Texas and everyone starts to wonder is she can win in Texas, it way more impact full than another day in Penn. Same with Florida, gets more coverage and puts the opposition on the back foot.

Campaign events don't directly move the dial. They generate news coverage and vibes and the coverage is what drives peoples views and behaviours.
 
SWP's back said:
Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.
Click to expand...
Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.
Click to expand...
Have done. Will do.

You may have only been in this thread ten minutes but there are plenty that know I’ve repeatedly put my money where my mouth with on votes against Trump since 2018. Thankfully.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.
Click to expand...
The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm not arguing polls are precise predictors
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.