Donald Trump

SebastianBlue said:
In this context, “enthusiasm” correlates fairly strongly with likely turnout based on previous election cycles.

And more than any other for this cycle, turnout is likely to be the most impactful factor on the outcome because of the gender gap in likely voters and voter registration (women outnumber men in both cases, and more broadly as a proportion of population).

Republicans (and definitely MAGA) have held increasingly smaller shares of eligible voters over the last few decades, to the point that election manipulation,extreme gerrymandering, and the electoral college has become vital mechanisms for staying in power (a Republican candidates hasn’t won the popular vote in presidential elections since 2004 with George W. BUSH, and that was the first time since his father won it in 1988).

So if the Democrats can maintain enthusiasm, and thus high turnout, they will likely win more races and hopefully the presidency.
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Understand all that. Anything on the correlation between "enthusiasm" and actual voting? It just seems so loosely connected to me .... happy to be educated.
 
halfcenturyup said:
Understand all that. Anything on the correlation between "enthusiasm" and actual voting? It just seems so loosely connected to me .... happy to be educated.
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An aggregation from Gallop themselves:

news.gallup.com

Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout | Gallup Topic

All Gallup articles on Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
news.gallup.com news.gallup.com

A study that has been cited quite heavily regarding the impacts of voter enthusiasm on election turnout and, ultimately, election results:


A highlight from the study is enthusiasm has a particularly outsized impact on competitive races (which intuitively makes sense).

By the by, one of the most competitive races (and potentially important, due to the likely composition of the next congress), is right here in Maine, where I currently live, in the 2nd Congressional district, where a (very) moderate Democrat is attempting to fight off a heavily-backed (record amounts of money from entities outside of the state have been flooding in) Republican in order to become the new Joe Manchin in the House.
 
Trump is like the DOT COM bubble.
Those companies had all the slogans, all the hype. Said every sound bite over and over.
People bought those shares like crazy.
When asked what they actually made or sold, they couldn't answer (because they didn't sell anything) and went bump.
People lost a lot of money.
Stupid is, is what stupid does...
 
SebastianBlue said:
An aggregation from Gallop themselves:

news.gallup.com

Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout | Gallup Topic

All Gallup articles on Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
news.gallup.com news.gallup.com

A study that has been cited quite heavily regarding the impacts of voter enthusiasm on election turnout and, ultimately, election results:


A highlight from the study is enthusiasm has a particularly outsized impact on competitive races (which intuitively makes sense).

By the by, one of the most competitive races (and potentially important, due to the likely composition of the next congress), is right here in Maine, where I currently live, in the 2nd Congressional district, where a (very) moderate Democrat is attempting to fight off a heavily-backed (record amounts of money from entities outside of the state have been flooding in) Republican in order to become the new Joe Manchin in the House.
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Fair enough, thanks. Will have a better look later but I don't see much to correlate a high percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic with an actual increase in voting. That Gallup aggregator does say, however, that early voting is down which isn't what I am hearing on here. And the academic piece, as far as I can make out defines an "enthusiasm gap" and then applies that to voting patterns? Not sure it's relevant specifically to the stats presented

Anyway, it doesn't matter, we will see soon enough. Thanks for making the effort to try to educate me :)
 
Dax777 said:
Well then let me post the view of someone who articulates my position better than I can.

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I suppose I asked for that :)

I will try to get to the end of it later. I am genuinely interested in why almost 50% of the electorate are still, despite everything, probably going to vote for him. The reasons have to be deeply held and it's hard to imagine them going away even if Harris wins. Interesting times ahead.
 
halfcenturyup said:
Fair enough, thanks. Will have a better look later but I don't see much to correlate a high percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic with an actual increase in voting. That Gallup aggregator does say, however, that early voting is down which isn't what I am hearing on here. And the academic piece, as far as I can make out defines an "enthusiasm gap" and then applies that to voting patterns? Not sure it's relevant specifically to the stats presented

Anyway, it doesn't matter, we will see soon enough. Thanks for making the effort to try to educate me :)
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The enthusiasm gap is a derivative of the enthusiasm measure, which makes the study relevant.

This is abstract for clarity:

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections to identify how the turnout rate of the party faithful varies across different contexts. I find that the advantaged party can see its registrants turn out by four percentage points more than the disadvantaged party in some elections, and that this effect can be even larger in competitive House districts. I estimate the net benefit to party vote share of the mobilized base, which is around one percentage point statewide, and up to one and one half points in competitive House contests. These results suggest that the partisan characteristics of an election have consequences not just for vote choice, but for the composition of the electorate.

Regarding early voting being down compared to 2020, I am not sure I have seen anyone on here claiming that overall early voting is higher than the previous election. It is not particularly surprising that it would be down, given the 2020 election was occurring during the beginning of the pandemic, so there was a major emphasis on early and mail-in voting because it was seen as unsafe to vote in person. That was actually hugely contentious at the time (and even now, due to Trump’s Big Lie narrative). That is not the case with this cycle (for better or worse, if you ask public health officials), and so more people will likely be planning to vote in person, which will likely see early voting lower this cycle.

People on here have discussed the current indications that women are voting early at a higher rate than men, as well as Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans (which is, by the way, almost always the case, and is as an element of the “Red Mirage” that plays out on Election Day, which I have posted about). And those gaps will likely benefit the Democrats, for reasons we have already discussed.

 
halfcenturyup said:
Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.
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You have to realise that nearly the Majority of Voting Americans think like Dax. 70 - 80 Million, Could be even more too in 5 or 6 days times.
 
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