Donald Trump

[SebastianBlue]

Also I don’t get why this Republicans Against Trump says “uh oh” unless they have data saying Harriscisnt leading in early voting. How they know that I don’t know. Why he says “uh oh” I don’t know..

Because both analysis of voter registration, likely voters, and the voting patterns of the 2020 and 2022 election cycles indicate Harris will have a larger share of women voters compared to Trump.

And because women outnumber men both in population share and voter registration share, more women voting early and voting on election day is going to substantially favour Harris where doing so is most impactful.

That is compounded if a large number of women that are partners of Trump supporters which live in swing states “secretly” vote Harris, effectively cancelling out their partner’s votes.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Because both analysis of voter registration, likely voters, and the voting patterns of the 2020 and 2022 election cycles indicate Harris will have a larger share of women voters compared to Trump.

And because women outnumber men both in population share and voter registration share, more women voting early and voting on election day is going to substantially favour Harris where doing so is most impactful.

That is compounded if a large number of women that are partners of Trump supporters which live in swing states “secretly” vote Harris, effectively cancelling out their partner’s votes.

Yeah so that’s, in theory, GOOD news for Harris. After all his username includes AGAINST TRUMP, hence the confusion as why he would say”uh oh”.

 

[Vic]

Yeah so that’s, in theory, GOOD news for Harris. After all his username includes AGAINST TRUMP, hence the confusion as why he would say”uh oh”.

Uh oh is bad, surely.

 

[Frank the Yank]

It’s bad. That’s what I thought as well.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

It’s bad. That’s what I thought as well.

Why did you just ignore my post?

It’s an ironic jab at Trump. RAT isn’t posting bad news about Harris.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Why did you just ignore my post?

It’s an ironic jab at Trump. RAT isn’t posting bad news about Harris.

Was responding to Vic’s post above.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Why did you just ignore my post?

It’s an ironic jab at Trump. RAT isn’t posting bad news about Harris.

I don't think that conclusion necessarily follows, mate. Turnout for women could still be extremely high on Election Day relative to men. Given the number of "none of the above" conversations we've had here, it's certainly a possibility that more men don't vote in general this time round.

Your “ none of the above” could also mean minorities, especially blacks, might sit this one out as well. That would be significantly hurt Harris’ chances.

I have said it before and I will say it again. If Trump gets 15% of the black vote and the turnout of said demographic is lower than in 2020, she cannot win.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Your “ none of the above” could also mean minorities, especially blacks, might sit this one out as well. That would be significantly hurt Harris’ chances.

I have said it before and I will say it again. If Trump gets 15% of the black vote and the turnout of said demographic is lower than in 2020, she cannot win.

How are you coming to this conclusion?

The maths doesn’t support this based on my review of the current data and forecasts, especially when you consider turnout and voter composition of black voters only really matters in a few swing states, and black vote share is forecast to heavily favour Harris.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-vs-harris-how-us-electorate-splits-ahead-election-day-2024-10-30/

 

[Frank the Yank]

How are you coming to this conclusion?

The maths doesn’t support this based on my review of the current data and forecasts, especially when you consider turnout and voter composition of black voters only really matters in a few swing states, and black vote share is forecast to heavily favour Harris.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-vs-harris-how-us-electorate-splits-ahead-election-day-2024-10-30/

First off it’s vital especially in PA-Philly. Trump got what 8-10% last time? An extra 5% is huge snd if turnout is just 2% lower in that particular demographic it’s makes one hell of a difference.

It also matters for GA-Atlanta and MI-Detroit and a bit less do for WI-Milwaukee.

IMHO if she loses PA, I cannot see how she can win.

What states do you think she will flip that we’re Trumps? I don’t think any- maybe North Carolina.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

First off it’s vital especially in PA-Philly. Trump got what 8-10% last time? An extra 5% is huge snd if turnout is just 2% lower in that particular demographic it’s makes one hell of a difference.

It also matters for GA-Atlanta and MI-Detroit and a bit less do for WI-Milwaukee.

IMHO if she loses PA, I cannot see how she can win.

What states do you think she will flip that we’re Trumps? I don’t think any- maybe North Carolina.

But as noted — what if female turnout is greater incrementally than what we lose in black men? It would be much easier for it to be so — the number of women over 18 outnumber black men by 5 or 6 to 1.

Seems to me her best chance is NC and the state Trump could flip most readily is GA. If she holds everywhere else and even if she loses NC she still wins. Agree on PA but I don’t think she’s losing PA.