EU referendum

[roaminblue]

Yet he has been the go to guy for at least three governments when the shit has hit the fan, just consulted on exit before the commons select committee who acknowledge him as just that, its personal preference who you choose, but I do think over the years he has been right far more often than most an has the numbers to back up his views.

You can watch his evidence at the select committee when he lays out his views, not his best performance because he is a typical academic talking to people who have at best a scant knowledge of the subject, but worth a watch.

I'll try and look it up tonight. Do you have the source for your other post. Id be interested to read

 

[hgblue]

The trouble I see with the outers is they assume that divorce is rational and that both parties act in the overall self interest. It is in a sense logical but the entire history of the globe shows that the best overall outcome is nearly never pursued or achieved. What will make this so different to everything history has taught us?

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

 

[cibaman]

We're the EUs most important customer, certainly in the case of France and Germany. We are a relatively rich, geographically close economy, who are paying full whack for their expensive luxury goods, (eg cars and champagne). This makes it extremely important for them that they don't piss us off, and economic suicide for them to engage in some sort of trade war with us. Tariffs hurt them in two ways, because they risk alienating a really important market (will the British people continue to buy their stuff if they are seen as responding vindictively to a democratic vote) and their goods become more expensive than their competition. French farmers and German car manufacturers would be in open revolt if this was even suggested, and the Eurozone would be plunged into an even deeper crisis. It aint happening.

This seems to me to be remarkably similar to the argument expressed by Tsipras and Varoufakis when trying to persuade the Greek people that they would be able to lead them out of austerity. In that case it was German financiers, fearful of another banking crisis, rather than German car manufacturers, who would force Merkel to back down and hand the Greeks a bail out free from austerity measures. Varoufakis' had this quaint belief that he was an expert in Game Theory and that that when push came to shove the EU would back down.

As it turned out, the German financiers had much less influence than Varoufakis expected. Fears of another banking crisis were offset by fears that a favourable bail out would tempt other countries to default. The German people were overwhelmingly against giving Tsipras what he wanted, Tsipras and Varoufakis also under estimated the hostility to Greece of the smaller countries, those that weren't required to contribute to a bail out, but who resented the idea that Greece would escape austerity when they had pushed through their own deeply unpopular austerity programmes.

In the end the Greeks got their bail out extended, just as the UK will get a trade agreement. But it was nothing like as favourable as Tsipras and Varoufakis had promised. It isn't going well, the Greeks are still protesting on the streets of Athens. And Varoufakis is advising Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[Monkfish]

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

yeah it is, but so is leaving your husband to sail off towards America in a dinghy crewed by Admiral Farage and first sea mate Johnson... not totally convinced the husband is that bad yet

 

[hgblue]

yeah it is, but so is leaving your husband to sail off towards America in a dinghy crewed by Admiral Farage and first sea mate Johnson... not totally convinced the husband is that bad yet

Well you've been in a controlling relationship for so long you've lost your self confidence and you have people telling you you'll never cope on your own, so it's hardly surprising you're having doubts. Thing is, you know you don't love him anymore and you do have friends who remember what a happy and strong person you used to be. Hopefully when push comes to shove you'll choose hope over fear.

 

[SWP's back]

Well you've been in a controlling relationship for so long you've lost your self confidence and you have people telling you you'll never cope on your own, so it's hardly surprising you're having doubts. Thing is, you know you don't love him anymore and you do have friends who remember what a happy and strong person you used to be. Hopefully when push comes to shove you'll choose hope over fear.

You took the faux aussie's analogy, ran with it and did rather well there mate.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Not at all. It's bollocks. To suggest that everything in life and global politics is done to spite other nations rather than work for mutual benefaction is fucking bollocks.

And to answer, Britain would have the whip hand due to the net trade deficit with Europe. That's the fucking point everyone bar three hyperbolic 'inners' are making.

Don't be so black and white , this isn't about spite it is about greed and sub optimal outcomes . Britain won't have a whip hand, but it is the negotiations with everyone was not just Europe that are what's important

 

[EalingBlue2]

Don't divorce your controlling husband because the divorce could turn nasty and he'll make your life hell afterwards? Do you realise how unappealing that argument is?

The argument was about the outcome and behaviour of divorce and the naiive assumptions made not a moral judgement on divorce or the circumstance

 

[KenTheLandlord]

Not at all. It's bollocks. To suggest that everything in life and global politics is done to spite other nations rather than work for mutual benefaction is fucking bollocks.

And to answer, Britain would have the whip hand due to the net trade deficit with Europe. That's the fucking point everyone bar three 'inners' are making.

I have not suggested that, you have and yes to suggest that is bollocks, which is why i said they do it to suit themselves.

As @roaminblue has stated you have not painted a true picture.
Four of the top six export markets are EU countries but at least we are increasing business with Angola, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Macedonia, which is good.

 

[EalingBlue2]

The big question which not one outer (or to be fair inner though that's not where the question was posed) has not even attempted to answer is what is Britains economic future? What is it that going out of Europe is going to help Britain export?

How does a country with no natural resources, a dramatically declining standard of education (comparatively speaking - though much of this is others coming up) , products and exports that are increasingly copied and bettered by the countries who will be our new trading partners etc. Is there actually a plan other than cutting labour rights, cutting standards and getting more cheap from abroad (which can give a short term boost) to address more than a century of decline? I don't see it, I just see a desire to cut education standards , cut health standards and cut consumer protection to try and win, which is not a strategy where the UK can compete on?

This in many ways is unchanged by in or out so is a higher question than the vote and in many ways the question everyone knows there is no answer to so part of the reason the vote is on as it kicks it down the road