Expected Goals + Assists this Season in the EPL

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WallyA

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22 Dec 2016
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From players who have played a meaningful number of minutes:

Highest Expected Goals per 90 mins
1. Gabriel Jesus - 0.90 in 767 mins
2. Sergio Aguero - 0.75 in 1291 mins
3. Salah - 0.69 in 1855 mins
4. Chichirito - 0.67 in 716 mins
5. Aubameyang - 0.67 in 1748 mins
...
Mahrez - 0.49 in 941 mins
Sterling - 0.49 in 1580 mins
Sane - 0.41 in 1238 mins



Highest Expected Assists per 90 mins
1. Sead Kolisinac - 0.46 in 961 mins
2. Ryan Fraser - 0.45 in 1775 mins
3. Sane - 0.44 in 1238 mins
4. Sterling - 0.40 in 1580 mins
5. David Silva - 0.40 in 1335 mins
...
Mahrez - 0.23 in 941 mins


I thought this data was interesting, some thoughts I had after looking at it:

1) Jesus on average, has a higher expected goals rate than Aguero, but as many have noticed, he is not as prolific as Aguero. I would then assume that Jesus is doing a combination of, playing easier opponents than Aguero, and getting in better positions than Aguero to score.

2) Sane, Sterling and Mahrez are relatively similar in their expected goals, but Mahrez is noticeably lower in assists. This makes sense from what we have seen, Mahrez is a good finisher, but has not created enough chances for the team, simply working on this will be a big help to the team

3) Sead Kolisinac is a beast for Arsenal, highest expected assists for a defender by far, I don't watch Arsenal, but I must imagine they have no left-sided forward/wingers to allow Kolisinac this much attacking freedom.

4) Ryan Fraser would be a very good buy for a top team in any league, he's got a high amount of assists, and can score some goals in him too. Considering how Bournemouth are near the bottom of expected goals, those numbers can go really high in a team like City, Liverpool, or Tottenham.
 
WallyA said:
From players who have played a meaningful number of minutes:

Highest Expected Goals per 90 mins
1. Gabriel Jesus - 0.90 in 767 mins
2. Sergio Aguero - 0.75 in 1291 mins
3. Salah - 0.69 in 1855 mins
4. Chichirito - 0.67 in 716 mins
5. Aubameyang - 0.67 in 1748 mins
...
Mahrez - 0.49 in 941 mins
Sterling - 0.49 in 1580 mins
Sane - 0.41 in 1238 mins



Highest Expected Assists per 90 mins
1. Sead Kolisinac - 0.46 in 961 mins
2. Ryan Fraser - 0.45 in 1775 mins
3. Sane - 0.44 in 1238 mins
4. Sterling - 0.40 in 1580 mins
5. David Silva - 0.40 in 1335 mins
...
Mahrez - 0.23 in 941 mins


I thought this data was interesting, some thoughts I had after looking at it:

1) Jesus on average, has a higher expected goals rate than Aguero, but as many have noticed, he is not as prolific as Aguero. I would then assume that Jesus is doing a combination of, playing easier opponents than Aguero, and getting in better positions than Aguero to score.

2) Sane, Sterling and Mahrez are relatively similar in their expected goals, but Mahrez is noticeably lower in assists. This makes sense from what we have seen, Mahrez is a good finisher, but has not created enough chances for the team, simply working on this will be a big help to the team

3) Sead Kolisinac is a beast for Arsenal, highest expected assists for a defender by far, I don't watch Arsenal, but I must imagine they have no left-sided forward/wingers to allow Kolisinac this much attacking freedom.

4) Ryan Fraser would be a very good buy for a top team in any league, he's got a high amount of assists, and can score some goals in him too. Considering how Bournemouth are near the bottom of expected goals, those numbers can go really high in a team like City, Liverpool, or Tottenham.
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Good post. I think you summarised it well. This board could do with a few more statistical posts like this, keep it up!
 
mccity said:
Good post. I think you summarised it well. This board could do with a few more statistical posts like this, keep it up!
Click to expand...
Thanks. I just posted it because it seemed interesting, and I rarely see posts like these.
 
WallyA said:
Thanks. I just posted it because it seemed interesting, and I rarely see posts like these.
Click to expand...
Well keep it up if you can! :) Too many people on here are far too dismissive of stats for extremely petty reasons.

Not that all stats are good mind, but I trust you and others to see through those and come up with decent analysis and perspective anyway.
 
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