French politics

[metalblue]

With the French election a year away it’s time to look at the main runners and riders.

Macron. Centrist, polling around 40%

Le Pen. Far right, looks like she will provide a closer race than last time out

Melenchon. Far left, considered to pose bigger risks than Le Pen.

Polling currently showing first round voting intentions similar to 2017 which were

Macron 24.8%
Le Pen. 26.0%
Rest 35.1%
Centre right 14.2%

But voting intentions for second round are showing a swing to Le Pen. Last time out the second round result was

Le Pen 46.5%
Macron 53.5%

Next few months look to be crucial for Macron’s chances of re-election with his handling the vaccine rollout and getting France out of its current lockdown and the economy beginning to show signs of recovery.

A Le Pen or Melenchon victory won’t certainly result in a radical government with the legislative likely to curtail their more extreme tendencies. However although Le Pen has rowed back from her desire to leave the EU she remains openly hostile to it and we can reasonably expect Frexit to never be far away from front and centre should she win the presidency.

 

[ganganvince]

Wasn't Barnier talking about a return to domestic politics or was that press crap?

 

[BobKowalski]

Too soon.

On current trends, Macron will be re-elected.

Also, way too soon.

PS. German elections this year, Merkel is not standing, CDU mired in sleaze (nowhere near as bad as the Tories, but it matters in Germany), voters went for CDU because of Merkel, Greens looking strong, SPD have stopped bleeding, AfD becalmed at 10%.

 

[BobKowalski]

Macron looks like he will go through in his promise to shut the ENA. Bit like us making Eton a State school. Not they we would do anything so radical :)

‘One of France's top colleges - the Ecole Nationale d'Administration - will be shut down, French President Emmanuel Macron has announced, under plans to boost social mobility. A degree from the ENA has been the passport to the upper echelons of French politics for generations.‘ @BBC

 

[bluethrunthru]

CDU mired in sleaze (nowhere near as bad as the Tories )

Saddest thing you'll see today

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

With the French election a year away it’s time to look at the main runners and riders.

Melenchon. Far left, considered to pose bigger risks than Le Pen.

What do you mean by that bit? Bigger risk they do well or bigger shithouse? In the world of shithousery Le Pen would make Trump blush!

 

[metalblue]

What do you mean by that bit? Bigger risk they do well or bigger shithouse? In the world of shithousery Le Pen would make Trump blush!

Bigger risk to the French economy. Or bigger uncertainty that should perhaps read.

He is considered authoritarian and is a big fan of nationalisation. He is colourful, disruptive to the status quo and recently had a suspended prison sentence. Whilst cut from a similar cloth I’d say he is more left than Corbyn but is a lot better at articulating it. He is very adapt at making it less about ideologies and more about solving problems (be they real or not). He has a real chance and I think is being woefully underestimated.

A Le Pen win, on the other hand, and all the risks that entails are already appearing to be priced in. Which further goes to demonstrate that Melenchon is being ignored and it’s being seen as a two horse race.

I’m alsurprised that a far right party has such a strong following in France although the French are inherently fairly nationalist in my experience - but as the SNP has shown you can be left and nationalist.

It promises to be a fascinating election which could genuinely go any way.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Bigger risk to the French economy. Or bigger uncertainty that should perhaps read.

He is considered authoritarian and is a big fan of nationalisation. He is colourful, disruptive to the status quo and recently had a suspended prison sentence. Whilst cut from a similar cloth I’d say he is more left than Corbyn but is a lot better at articulating it. He is very adapt at making it less about ideologies and more about solving problems (be they real or not). He has a real chance and I think is being woefully underestimated.

A Le Pen win, on the other hand, and all the risks that entails are already appearing to be priced in. Which further goes to demonstrate that Melenchon is being ignored and it’s being seen as a two horse race.

I’m alsurprised that a far right party has such a strong following in France although the French are inherently fairly nationalist in my experience - but as the SNP has shown you can be left and nationalist.

It promises to be a fascinating election which could genuinely go any way.

So you see it a bit like a Stalin v's Hitler in a skirt.

Lets hope Macron wins then?

 

[mat]

With the French election a year away it’s time to look at the main runners and riders.

Macron. Centrist, polling around 40%

Le Pen. Far right, looks like she will provide a closer race than last time out

Melenchon. Far left, considered to pose bigger risks than Le Pen.

Polling currently showing first round voting intentions similar to 2017 which were

Macron 24.8%
Le Pen. 26.0%
Rest 35.1%
Centre right 14.2%

But voting intentions for second round are showing a swing to Le Pen. Last time out the second round result was

Le Pen 46.5%
Macron 53.5%

Next few months look to be crucial for Macron’s chances of re-election with his handling the vaccine rollout and getting France out of its current lockdown and the economy beginning to show signs of recovery.

A Le Pen or Melenchon victory won’t certainly result in a radical government with the legislative likely to curtail their more extreme tendencies. However although Le Pen has rowed back from her desire to leave the EU she remains openly hostile to it and we can reasonably expect Frexit to never be far away from front and centre should she win the presidency.

It was such a neutral thought-provoking post up to the point you started on the nasty lefty.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN17G1A2


Looking at his policies what are you afraid of. Frexit?

Macron is currently portrayed in some quarters as incredibly authoritarian during Covid. Also his handling of the yellow vest movement pre Covid and the police brutality that came with them hasn't been forgotten by the electorate.

I'll get looking at various sources and come back to you on my predictions for it.

 

[metalblue]

It was such a neutral thought-provoking post up to the point you started on the nasty lefty.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN17G1A2


Looking at his policies what are you afraid of. Frexit?

Macron is currently portrayed in some quarters as incredibly authoritarian during Covid. Also his handling of the yellow vest movement pre Covid and the police brutality that came with them hasn't been forgotten by the electorate.

I'll get looking at various sources and come back to you on my predictions for it.

I’d favour a Melenchon victory over Le Pen, and Macron over either of them.

A Le Pen win would, I predict, see the rise of nationalism on the continent which can never be seen as a good thing.