FTSE-100 Index

The perfect fumble said:
You should have left it there.

Your post.....

"FTSE indexes breaking new records every day at the moment due to increasing corporate earnings due to a more exports because of the weak pound. Got to count our blessings we're not in the Euro. If we were we'd be going the way of Greece."

Is there evidence to suggest that the FTSE 100 is actually rising because of the drop in the value of the Pound? The value of the Pound is indeed dropping, is this a good thing? You certainly give the impression it is. What evidence do you have that were we a member of the Euro "we would be going the way of Greece"? Greece is a member of the Euro and we are not, that is true, but her economy and ours are very different. There are many countries that share the Euro that are not in Greece's position and yet you assume that if we were in the Euro we'd be going the same as Greece and not say the Netherlands? I can only assume you see our situation is akin to that of Greece in some way and her fate would have befallen us had we been a member of the Euro. If that is what you think, what similarities exist between the Greek economy and ours that leads you to believe we would be "going the way of Greece" as opposed to any number of other Euro countries?
Click to expand...
Why should I have left it? You posted a piss taking laughing gif on the incorrect assumption I was gloating about leaving the EU supposedly because I thought our economy would have been like Greece's if we stayed in. Then you incorrectly called me a little Englander. Finally you grudgingly accepted my point.

I've already explained my point but I'll do it again. Greece's economy is in the shit. They had mistakenly joined the Euro thinking it would benefit them but their economy was too weak to thrive with a strong currency. If they had kept their own currency it would have dropped against all major currencies which would have helped tourism and exports and helped Greece to come out of their economic problems. As it is they're stuck in a downward spiral relying on bailouts.

Our Brexit vote has caused a lot of uncertainty in the business and finance world with the prospect of tariffs on our goods. Our currency has dropped against the Euro and dollar which has helped UK businesses to export and helped tourism and has in large part countered the negative effect the prospect of Brexit has had on our economy. If we were in the Euro, business and tourism would be spiralling downwards in a similar way to how Greece's did as they had no control on their fiscal policy but we do. That's why I mentioned Greece as an example of a country with economic problems but with no power to use its currency to get it out of its mess in comparison to us who does have that ability.

"Is there evidence to suggest that the FTSE 100 is actually rising because of the drop in the value of the Pound?"

Of course the rise of the FTSE is related to the drop in the pound. It's fucking obvious. Read any of the financial press if you want to know why. If you had any knowledge of economics you'd already know. In my opinion the weak pound will present its own problems and in the long run we would be better off with it being stronger however while there's uncertainty about what Brexit will actually mean it helps that it's at a level to help exports.
 
The FTSE isn't particularly related to economic fundamentals. It also isn't as strong as some believe.

There is given mount of money which has to be invested. Pension funds for example are bound to invest a certain percentage. They re only allowed to invest in defined risk parameters such as FTSE 100 companies. Therefore it's a big deal to companies to be in the FTSE 100 so they compete with each other by overpaying dividends. Cutting costs such as wages allows them to pay higher dividends which makes their shares more attractive and the price rise. Add in inflation, as investment funds increase share prices increase.

The other thing to bear in mind is GBP has weakened significantly since Brexit, making it more attractive to overseas investors. Reprice the FTSE in USD, strip out inflation and the gains look much more modest.

The other factor as previously stated is a lack of alternatives for investors. Low interest rates make the FTSE look more attractive however it is prone to bubble for exactly these reasons, it would certainly appear ripe for a correction. The problem is where would that money go? A repatriation of overseas funds which would be exacerbated by an accompanying correction in the London housing market and could have a drastic effect on GBP.
 
west didsblue said:
Why should I have left it? You posted a piss taking laughing gif on the incorrect assumption I was gloating about leaving the EU supposedly because I thought our economy would have been like Greece's if we stayed in. Then you incorrectly called me a little Englander. Finally you grudgingly accepted my point.

I've already explained my point but I'll do it again. Greece's economy is in the shit. They had mistakenly joined the Euro thinking it would benefit them but their economy was too weak to thrive with a strong currency. If they had kept their own currency it would have dropped against all major currencies which would have helped tourism and exports and helped Greece to come out of their economic problems. As it is they're stuck in a downward spiral relying on bailouts.

Our Brexit vote has caused a lot of uncertainty in the business and finance world with the prospect of tariffs on our goods. Our currency has dropped against the Euro and dollar which has helped UK businesses to export and helped tourism and has in large part countered the negative effect the prospect of Brexit has had on our economy. If we were in the Euro, business and tourism would be spiralling downwards in a similar way to how Greece's did as they had no control on their fiscal policy but we do. That's why I mentioned Greece as an example of a country with economic problems but with no power to use its currency to get it out of its mess in comparison to us who does have that ability.

"Is there evidence to suggest that the FTSE 100 is actually rising because of the drop in the value of the Pound?"

Of course the rise of the FTSE is related to the drop in the pound. It's fucking obvious. Read any of the financial press if you want to know why. If you had any knowledge of economics you'd already know. In my opinion the weak pound will present its own problems and in the long run we would be better off with it being stronger however while there's uncertainty about what Brexit will actually mean it helps that it's at a level to help exports.
Click to expand...

Our economy is not the same as Greece. Had we joined the Euro any number of things might have happened, but I can say with absolute certainty that whatever the many scenarios might have been, they would have been very different from those that faced Greece, because the circumstances of our two countries are not comparable and to believe otherwise is to be deliberately disingenuous or immensely stupid, you can choose which you prefer

I work for the Department for International Trade, prior to that I was an export salesman for 25 years and I've run my own export company. One of my skills is to tutor companies on how to win the Queen's Award for International Trade.

If you want to know why the fall in the pound has benefited the FTSE 100 the reason is simple. Profits earned abroad by multinationals such as drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline and major mining companies are worth more when converted into sterling. That makes a company's shares appear better value when compared with the higher profits it will make, prompting a revaluation of the stock.

I would draw your attention to this....

UK Exporters Getting Fat Off the Weaker Pound and Failing to Grow International Market Share....

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6014-uk-addicted-to-imports

Latest international trade data has confirmed that an expected jump in UK exports on the back of a weaker Pound Sterling is being held back by exporters looking to book profit.

Thus, an expected structural rotation of the UK economy away from an unhealthy addiction on imports to one that is able to export more, is not happening.

And this could have serious implications for economic growth in 2017 and beyond.

Economists had expected the fall in Pound Sterling following the EU referendum to force a rebalancing in the economy - but the latest official data on the matter confirms no shift has taken place.

Data from the ONS shows the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £4.2 billion in November 2016.

This represents a widening of £2.6 billion from October 2016, which reflects a £3.3 billion increase in imports, partially offset by a £0.7 billion increase in exports.

The widening of the deficit in November 2016 is attributed to trade in goods in which there were increased imports from both EU and non-EU countries, partially offset by an increase in exports to EU countries.

So what is going on, why are UK exporters not growing their business despite the fall in Pound Sterling?

Analyst Philip Shaw at Investec believes he has the answer:

"Looking at volumes reveals a similar picture. Core export volumes (i.e. ex-oil and erratics) fell by 1.2% in the year to the three months to November. At the same time, core imports rose by 5.3%. Interestingly and despite the weakness of Sterling, core export prices are rising more quickly (12.0%) than those for imports (7.2%).

"It seems as though UK manufacturers are using the depreciation in the Pound to boost their margins, rather than to press for greater market share."

This inability of UK exporters to take advantage of the gift that is a weaker Pound could imperil the economy argues Shaw:

"As yet there seems to be little or no response from the volume of exports to sterling’s 15% trade weighted deprecation over the past 12 months. Unless this changes, the pace of GDP growth seems likely to soften over 2017 as higher inflation begins to bite into real incomes and slows the pace of consumer spending. Our GDP forecast for this year remains +1.4% from +2.0% in 2016."

............................................

So when you stated "corporate earnings due to a (sic) more exports because of the weak pound"

You were simply wrong.

Now go away and bother someone else.
 
Last edited:
The perfect fumble said:
Our economy is not the same as Greece. Had we joined the Euro any number of things might have happened, but I can say with absolute certainty that whatever the many scenarios might have been, they would have been very different from those that faced Greece, because the circumstances of our two countries are not comparable and to believe otherwise is to be deliberately disingenuous or immensely stupid, you can choose which you prefer

I work for the Department for International Trade, prior to that I was an export salesman for 25 years and I've run my own export company. One of my skills is to tutor companies on how to win the Queen's Award for International Trade.

If you want to know why the fall in the pound has benefited the FTSE 100 the reason is simple. Profits earned abroad by multinationals such as drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline and major mining companies are worth more when converted into sterling. That makes a company's shares appear better value when compared with the higher profits it will make, prompting a revaluation of the stock.

I would draw your attention to this....

UK Exporters Getting Fat Off the Weaker Pound and Failing to Grow International Market Share....

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6014-uk-addicted-to-imports

Latest international trade data has confirmed that an expected jump in UK exports on the back of a weaker Pound Sterling is being held back by exporters looking to book profit.

Thus, an expected structural rotation of the UK economy away from an unhealthy addiction on imports to one that is able to export more, is not happening.

And this could have serious implications for economic growth in 2017 and beyond.

Economists had expected the fall in Pound Sterling following the EU referendum to force a rebalancing in the economy - but the latest official data on the matter confirms no shift has taken place.

Data from the ONS shows the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £4.2 billion in November 2016.

This represents a widening of £2.6 billion from October 2016, which reflects a £3.3 billion increase in imports, partially offset by a £0.7 billion increase in exports.

The widening of the deficit in November 2016 is attributed to trade in goods in which there were increased imports from both EU and non-EU countries, partially offset by an increase in exports to EU countries.

So what is going on, why are UK exporters not growing their business despite the fall in Pound Sterling?

Analyst Philip Shaw at Investec believes he has the answer:

"Looking at volumes reveals a similar picture. Core export volumes (i.e. ex-oil and erratics) fell by 1.2% in the year to the three months to November. At the same time, core imports rose by 5.3%. Interestingly and despite the weakness of Sterling, core export prices are rising more quickly (12.0%) than those for imports (7.2%).

"It seems as though UK manufacturers are using the depreciation in the Pound to boost their margins, rather than to press for greater market share."

This inability of UK exporters to take advantage of the gift that is a weaker Pound could imperil the economy argues Shaw:

"As yet there seems to be little or no response from the volume of exports to sterling’s 15% trade weighted deprecation over the past 12 months. Unless this changes, the pace of GDP growth seems likely to soften over 2017 as higher inflation begins to bite into real incomes and slows the pace of consumer spending. Our GDP forecast for this year remains +1.4% from +2.0% in 2016."

............................................

So when you stated "corporate earnings due to a (sic) more exports because of the weak pound"

You were simply wrong.

Now go away and bother someone else.
Click to expand...
Thanks for proving my point that the rise in the FTSE is related to the fall in the pound, something that wouldn't have happened had we been in the single currency which was the only reason I mentioned Greece, not because our economy is the same. I may have been wrong about more exports (even though in sterling terms exports recently hit an all time high) but the main point of my argument was about the fact that we have our own currency that can react to economic conditions unlike Greece. I am convinced that had we been in the Euro, economically we'd be in a much worse position following the Brexit vote. The reason you started taking the piss was nothing to do with exports; you thought I was a little Englander getting excited about Brexit helping the FTSE and the economy. You were wrong. I can't be arsed forensically examining your posts to make pedantic points like you have with mine so I'll leave it there.
 
Last edited:
The rise in the ftse is primarily down to the fall in the £ v all other currencies is the actual answer. The fact it keeps rising means the markets expect further drops in the value of the £, which they will get this week when mother Theresa speaks on Tuesday
 
Monkfish said:
The rise in the ftse is primarily down to the fall in the £ v all other currencies is the actual answer. The fact it keeps rising means the markets expect further drops in the value of the £, which they will get this week when mother Theresa speaks on Tuesday
Click to expand...

correct, as I said....

"If you want to know why the fall in the pound has benefited the FTSE 100 the reason is simple. Profits earned abroad by multinationals such as drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline and major mining companies are worth more when converted into sterling. That makes a company's shares appear better value when compared with the higher profits it will make, prompting a revaluation of the stock."

Exports have not risen, exporters have used the fall in Sterling to book profits, which is as surprising as all those bears shitting in the woods and consequently the FTSE share price has risen. There is no evidence that this will change, in fact all the evidence is to the contrary, the odd shyster Yank corporation running from EU scrutiny to the UK are not doing so as a vote of confidence in post Brexit Britain as some of the more deluded Brexiters think, they are doing so in the knowledge that Super Soaraway Brexit Britain is headed for tax haven status as we prostitute ourselves post Brexit, and as if on cue, here is Hammond today.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38628428

Brexit: UK 'could change economic model' if single market access denied

_93575596_mediaitem93575595.jpg


The UK may be forced to change its "economic model" if it is locked out of the single market after Brexit, Chancellor Philip Hammond has said.

Mr Hammond said the government would not "lie down" and would "do whatever we have to do" to remain competitive.

He had been asked by a German newspaper if the UK could become a "tax haven" by further lowering corporation tax.
 
Last edited:
Most small to medium sized exporters who can't play hide and seek with their income, or benefit from repatriating profits paid in other currencies to bolster their share price, while the Pound is in the toilet, are very worried and all the organisations that represent them, solid conservative bodies that they are, keep saying so.

Investment is at a standstill, the loss of single market access consumes them 24/7. If the neo-liberal fuckers push us off a cliff for a hard Brexit (now re-defined as clean Brexit, nice one) and signal as much next week, watch where the Pound ends up then, you can forget Disney World next year, I hear there's a lovely B&B in Southport.
 
The perfect fumble said:
Which is what you should have done in the first place.
Click to expand...
Maybe you shouldn't have taken the piss and argued against points I hadn't made and I would have left it a long time ago.

Nice to see you're in agreement with my main point now.

I find it rather disconcerting that you're working in the department that's responsible for making the best of Brexit whilst you appear to be hoping for it to fail so you can prove a point.
 
west didsblue said:
Maybe you shouldn't have taken the piss and argued against points I hadn't made and I would have left it a long time ago.

Nice to see you're in agreement with my main point now.

I find it rather disconcerting that you're working in the department that's responsible for making the best of Brexit whilst you appear to be hoping for it to fail so you can prove a point.
Click to expand...

You really don't know when you're beaten, which is admirable in a peculiar kind of way.

I wouldn't be disconcerted , with the exception of a tiny portion of the people in government hired and paid to salute the flag, no one I deal with believes this can work and it can't work because it is unworkable in the sense that there does not exist even the slimmest of silver linings to this black cloud,. All your bluff and bluster cannot hide the fact we have left the largest and most successful trading block in the world and as we cannot or will not stay inside the single market then a low corporation tax, low pay, deregulated shit hole is our destination.

That is why our EU Ambassador resigned, he was hounded out by hostile Brexiters in government, as he said in the final paragraph of his farewell email to his staff....

"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power. I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them."

But no one is hearing them, not least people like you, my anger stems of course from the stupid decision you made, but the real contempt I have for your viewpoint comes from your unwillingness or inability, or both, to come to terms with the consequences of what you've done.

Brexit know nothings post in here with some tiny sliver of fake good news fed to them by Murdoch and the Mail while ignoring the tsunami of shit on the horizon. I've no problem with you shooting yourself in the foot if you want, but in doing so you've shot me and millions like me and saddest of all you've shot the generations to come.

So yes, I'm angry, you've fucked my country and handed it over to the tender mercies of Ian Duncan Smith, Rupert Murdoch and tens of thousands of Mike Ashley's
 
The perfect fumble said:
You really don't know when you're beaten, which is admirable in a peculiar kind of way.

I wouldn't be disconcerted , with the exception of a tiny portion of the people in government hired and paid to salute the flag, no one I deal with believes this can work and it can't work because it is unworkable in the sense that there does not exist even the slimmest of silver linings to this black cloud,. All your bluff and bluster cannot hide the fact we have left the largest and most successful trading block in the world and as we cannot or will not stay inside the single market then a low corporation tax, low pay, deregulated shit hole is our destination.

That is why our EU Ambassador resigned, he was hounded out by hostile Brexiters in government, as he said in the final paragraph of his farewell email to his staff....

"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power. I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them."

But no one is hearing them, not least people like you, my anger stems of course from the stupid decision you made, but the real contempt I have for your viewpoint comes from your unwillingness or inability, or both, to come to terms with the consequences of what you've done.

Brexit know nothings post in here with some tiny sliver of fake good news fed to them by Murdoch and the Mail while ignoring the tsunami of shit on the horizon. I've no problem with you shooting yourself in the foot if you want, but in doing so you've shot me and millions like me and saddest of all you've shot the generations to come.

So yes, I'm angry, you've fucked my country and handed it over to the tender mercies of Ian Duncan Smith, Rupert Murdoch and tens of thousands of Mike Ashley's
Click to expand...
I told you I voted remain you fuckwit.

If you're looking for someone to blame try your hero Corbyn who couldn't be bothered to get off his arse to campaign properly.
 
Last edited:
The perfect fumble said:
You really don't know when you're beaten, which is admirable in a peculiar kind of way.

I wouldn't be disconcerted , with the exception of a tiny portion of the people in government hired and paid to salute the flag, no one I deal with believes this can work and it can't work because it is unworkable in the sense that there does not exist even the slimmest of silver linings to this black cloud,. All your bluff and bluster cannot hide the fact we have left the largest and most successful trading block in the world and as we cannot or will not stay inside the single market then a low corporation tax, low pay, deregulated shit hole is our destination.

That is why our EU Ambassador resigned, he was hounded out by hostile Brexiters in government, as he said in the final paragraph of his farewell email to his staff....

"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power. I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them."

But no one is hearing them, not least people like you, my anger stems of course from the stupid decision you made, but the real contempt I have for your viewpoint comes from your unwillingness or inability, or both, to come to terms with the consequences of what you've done.

Brexit know nothings post in here with some tiny sliver of fake good news fed to them by Murdoch and the Mail while ignoring the tsunami of shit on the horizon. I've no problem with you shooting yourself in the foot if you want, but in doing so you've shot me and millions like me and saddest of all you've shot the generations to come.

So yes, I'm angry, you've fucked my country and handed it over to the tender mercies of Ian Duncan Smith, Rupert Murdoch and tens of thousands of Mike Ashley's
Click to expand...

hahahaha!

Group think at it's best.

What you and all your institutionalised chums need to do is compare predictions to outcomes so far and use that to qualify and correct your bias.
 
west didsblue said:
I told you I voted remain you fuckwit.

If you're looking for someone to blame try your hero Corbyn who couldn't be bothered to get off his arse to campaign properly.
Click to expand...
Lol. Tory pm heads remain campaign and right wing voters win brexit and its the LW opposition leaders fault!
This is like when he opposed bombing in Syria he got accused of causing it by polarising opinion.
 
Helmet Cole said:
Lol. Tory pm heads remain campaign and right wing voters win brexit and its the LW opposition leaders fault!
This is like when he opposed bombing in Syria he got accused of causing it by polarising opinion.
Click to expand...
I mentioned Corbyn to him because he was his biggest fan on here during the labour leadership contest. It wasn't just the right wing that won. Many traditionally labour areas voted for Brexit and that's where Corbyn was missing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top