Future Strikers

[simon23]

Here's a couple of graphs I've found recently showcasing the attacking talents of Aguero and Jesus. The general gist is that Aguero is a bit better at scoring, and Jesus is a bit better at assisting. But their overall contributions are practically identical if you combine the two.

Interestingly, Jesus is getting more assists than he should, but he's scoring fewer than he should. He really should be level with Aguero, but as we know Jesus can be a bit shaky with his finishing [Personally I think his issue is confidence as opposed to ability]. They're both pretty equal it seems at getting into goalscoring positions, something they both do excellently.

I don't think this has been Aguero's best season for obvious reasons; his stats would probably be better going back (his undoubted quality is still apparent though). But Jesus is obviously getting older and in theory more game time, so his stats should in theory improve. I want to say here it's remarkable how good Aguero's output is despite his physical issues as of the last few years.


The takeaway is that Jesus isn't as of now as good a goalscorer as Aguero (how many are though?) but the team is unaffected with him in the team goalwise. As he gets older, if his finishing and creating improve, which they should with increased experience and game time, then it's highly likely we'll have a striker with a world class output. The worst case scenario fitness permitting is that he'd be our version of Firmino, and that's the worst case. Jesus will almost certainly not replace Aguero, but there's a chance he'll bring things to the table Aguero never had to make up for it.


We do need a third central forward option though, even if it isn't an out and out striker. Not only can we not rely on both Aguero and Jesus to stay fit for a full season but it'd give licence to possibly use both together or one of them elsewhere (eg Jesus on the wing). Plus it'd mean we can make the extra steps to protect Aguero's fitness, he's still an amazing striker who's undoubtedly better when he's not injured!

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The highlighted bit is the part Ive been talking about - his finishing is an issue and its plain to see and these stats just back it up - he misses an awful lot of chances. He needs to improve this and thats why i believe we need another forward to supplement him once Kun has gone. I dont think he will get much better than he is - a lot of his goals are from easy chances as well (which in some way is a credit to him as he gets himself into those positions to score - but put Jesus in the position of Kun for the 93:20 moment for a second - does he score? You knew Kun would and would do 99/100 - Jesus - there is doubt there and that makes a huge difference and what makes the difference between a world class striker and just a good one.

 

[simon23]

Pretty sure that's not true. In fact he's been better fitness wise for 2 or 3 seasons? Something to do with his diet from memory.

think you are spot on..he seems to have got fitter - thin he will come back fine for his last hurrah

 

[mccity]

The highlighted bit is the part Ive been talking about - his finishing is an issue and its plain to see and these stats just back it up - he misses an awful lot of chances. He needs to improve this and thats why i believe we need another forward to supplement him once Kun has gone. I dont think he will get much better than he is - a lot of his goals are from easy chances as well (which in some way is a credit to him as he gets himself into those positions to score - but put Jesus in the position of Kun for the 93:20 moment for a second - does he score? You knew Kun would and would do 99/100 - Jesus - there is doubt there and that makes a huge difference and what makes the difference between a world class striker and just a good one.

True. His finishing as it stands should be better. But the same column highlighted showcases that both Aguero and Jesus have pretty much identical contributions to the amount of goals the team as a whole scores. In theory that number would only go up to Jesus. Your point about finishing stands but you can't just ignore absolutely everything else as a measure of quality of a striker (In fairness you give Jesus credit for other things).

Aguero may have scored the QPR goal at a higher rate than Jesus would, but then would Aguero have scored the equalising goal at the same rate Dzeko would have? Different strikers offer different things, and in the modern game as important as some goals are, others are important too. And as important as goals are, there's other stuff too.


It's not like Jesus hasn't scored late goals either. We remember the 100 point goal (which was hardly an easy finish) and it's hardly his fault the 90th minute winner against Tottenham at the start of the season was ruled out. Jesus has showcased he can finish and score a variety of goals, especially when he has the confidence. He should be afforded the opportunity to get games and build that confidence up.

We will need another forward, and one that maybe is a more reliable finisher wouldn't go amiss. It's just I feel relying solely on finishing as a knock on Jesus and why he can't be relied upon, especially given he's shown so much quality in everything else, in THIS city team, is possibly harsh.

 

[simon23]

True. His finishing as it stands should be better. But the same column highlighted showcases that both Aguero and Jesus have pretty much identical contributions to the amount of goals the team as a whole scores. In theory that number would only go up to Jesus. Your point about finishing stands but you can't just ignore absolutely everything else as a measure of quality of a striker (In fairness you give Jesus credit for other things).

Aguero may have scored the QPR goal at a higher rate than Jesus would, but then would Aguero have scored the equalising goal at the same rate Dzeko would have? Different strikers offer different things, and in the modern game as important as some goals are, others are important too. And as important as goals are, there's other stuff too.


It's not like Jesus hasn't scored late goals either. We remember the 100 point goal (which was hardly an easy finish) and it's hardly his fault the 90th minute winner against Tottenham at the start of the season was ruled out. Jesus has showcased he can finish and score a variety of goals, especially when he has the confidence. He should be afforded the opportunity to get games and build that confidence up.

We will need another forward, and one that maybe is a more reliable finisher wouldn't go amiss. It's just I feel relying solely on finishing as a knock on Jesus and why he can't be relied upon, especially given he's shown so much quality in everything else, in THIS city team, is possibly harsh.

the point i was making about the 93:20 goal wasnt the position etc from where he struck it. Im talking about the stress of the big moment - I just dont think Jesus has that in him. I agree its a confience/mental thing - and again thats why I dont think he will be able to develop this - its part of his personality that is engrained I believe - part of his game

For instance the other night when he came on against chelsea (and Ill qualify what i say next with also my opinon that he made us play better when he came on) - he received the ball on the edge of the are on hte half turn at one point. Instead of looking up to see if he could shoot he looked for a pass and lost the ball - I dont think Kun does that - I think he looks to shoot from that position - thats the difference for me - obvioulsy neither option could result in a goal but Jesus seems to hesitate at critical moments (its like he is undecided on what to do) and that for me is critical for a striker.

 

[Silva2021]

Love his mentality
He’s a winner already
Everyone will want him when he leaves Dortmund

I think he falls perfect us.

As I see it if Jesus hasn’t particularly become first choice next season, he is not quite there at which point we could offer Haaland that place in our team.

I think he must want to play Premier League and as a club you know he likes us.

We will be dancing with devil though with Riaola on this one, so anything could happen!!

 

[mccity]

the point i was making about the 93:20 goal wasnt the position etc from where he struck it. Im talking about the stress of the big moment - I just dont think Jesus has that in him. I agree its a confience/mental thing - and again thats why I dont think he will be able to develop this - its part of his personality that is engrained I believe - part of his game

For instance the other night when he came on against chelsea (and Ill qualify what i say next with also my opinon that he made us play better when he came on) - he received the ball on the edge of the are on hte half turn at one point. Instead of looking up to see if he could shoot he looked for a pass and lost the ball - I dont think Kun does that - I think he looks to shoot from that position - thats the difference for me - obvioulsy neither option could result in a goal but Jesus seems to hesitate at critical moments (its like he is undecided on what to do) and that for me is critical for a striker.

He does sometimes hesitate at critical moments. But again that's confidence. He didn't hesitate to score the 100 point goal and he didn't hesitate to score that disallowed goal vs Tottenham. Again, if he's given a run and a chance, there's no immediate reason to doubt he'll gain a suitable level of confidence


Maybe you're right and he just won't ever have that in him. But if he goes on to have multiple 30+ goals in a season (which wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility) and leads us to success, is the fact he might not score that absolute clutch goal be the worst thing? What if he just set up the goal instead?

This just feels like something that's unfair to fixate on with him. There's not a single player on the planet we could bring in who wouldn't have something they couldn't replace Aguero for. I stand by the idea that if Jesus fulfills his potential then he'll be a more than good enough striker for us in the future.

 

[Ezzy]

the point i was making about the 93:20 goal wasnt the position etc from where he struck it. Im talking about the stress of the big moment - I just dont think Jesus has that in him. I agree its a confience/mental thing - and again thats why I dont think he will be able to develop this - its part of his personality that is engrained I believe - part of his game

For instance the other night when he came on against chelsea (and Ill qualify what i say next with also my opinon that he made us play better when he came on) - he received the ball on the edge of the are on hte half turn at one point. Instead of looking up to see if he could shoot he looked for a pass and lost the ball - I dont think Kun does that - I think he looks to shoot from that position - thats the difference for me - obvioulsy neither option could result in a goal but Jesus seems to hesitate at critical moments (its like he is undecided on what to do) and that for me is critical for a striker.

Real Madrid.
Leicester Away.
Tottenham at Home.

you just completely ignored his point mate.

Jesus is an Awful finisher, but is still scoring at an absurd rate of 131 Mins Per Goal in the Premier League.
as a Back up Striker...

what happens if Jesus gains more confidence?

 

[balotelli's back pocket]

Gabriel deserves the chance to step up.

As for a replacement next summer, I'd look at Boadu at Alkmaar, Esposito at Inter and Martinelli at Arsenal.

 

[simon23]

He does sometimes hesitate at critical moments. But again that's confidence. He didn't hesitate to score the 100 point goal and he didn't hesitate to score that disallowed goal vs Tottenham. Again, if he's given a run and a chance, there's no immediate reason to doubt he'll gain a suitable level of confidence


Maybe you're right and he just won't ever have that in him. But if he goes on to have multiple 30+ goals in a season (which wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility) and leads us to success, is the fact he might not score that absolute clutch goal be the worst thing? What if he just set up the goal instead?

This just feels like something that's unfair to fixate on with him. There's not a single player on the planet we could bring in who wouldn't have something they couldn't replace Aguero for. I stand by the idea that if Jesus fulfills his potential then he'll be a more than good enough striker for us in the future.

I think he is good enough for us - I Just feel we need someone else for him to play alongside

A front 3 of Marhrez, Sterling and Jesus wouldnt fill me with confidence

 

[simon23]

Gabriel deserves the chance to step up.

As for a replacement next summer, I'd look at Boadu at Alkmaar, Esposito at Inter and Martinelli at Arsenal.

I agree he deserves the chance btu he also has had chances and he hasnt convinced some people