Gabriel Jesus - 2019/20 performances

Blu1

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I’d happily keep Jesus if we buy a striker.

Jesus would work better on the wing so he can run at players as this is his strength. He is totally wasted centrally. I’d rather have bernardo / sterling as a central striker.

He can work as much as he wants but he’s here to score goals not chase everything.

problem is I don’t think pep sees players in one position or having one strength he likes a team unit & everybody to score
 

cjn

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he had 6 chances yesterday, he has no excuse.
Did you watch the game? Because there's no way if you did you think he had six real chances. He had the Cancelo half chance (which looked like a shot to me and was absolutely fizzed in) and a bunch of floated in balls with no power on them to try and get a head on.

This stuff is why the conversation around Jesus is so frustrating. There's enough about his game that needs to improve that you don't even really need to exaggerate, but of course reading through this thread you'd think he's the worst player in the world.
 
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simon23

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Pep publically supporting Jesus in his latest pre match press conference (which you would fully expect) - saying he wants him to play the way he did against Southampton and it was a great game by him..

Hopefully he thinks differently in private
 

domalino

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Pep publically supporting Jesus in his latest pre match press conference (which you would fully expect) - saying he wants him to play the way he did against Southampton and it was a great game by him..

Hopefully he thinks differently in private
He won't think differently in private. Jesus created 3 great chances with build up play, and while he never scored, he didn't get given a big chance either, just a few half chances in a crowded box and 1 almost impossible attempt to direct Cancelo's shot from beyond the back post.

If Gabby plays like he did on Sunday, he'll probably walk away with a couple of assists and a goal vs. Newcastle.
 

simon23

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He won't think differently in private. Jesus created 3 great chances with build up play, and while he never scored, he didn't get given a big chance either, just a few half chances in a crowded box and 1 almost impossible attempt to direct Cancelo's shot from beyond the back post.

If Gabby plays like he did on Sunday, he'll probably walk away with a couple of assists and a goal vs. Newcastle.
My issue with Jesus is that he never looks like making anything happen himself which is what the best strikers do - in those tight moments/the finite detail - this is where he lacks. He played well in part against Southampton but conversely he also fucked up one big chance by straying offside needlessly (which he does with frustrating regularity). His control was a it hit and miss as well at times. And that chance from the cancello shot/cross - 9/10 most strikers including GJ miss it as you say - but the best - the very best will be put it away on some occasions. He was also slow at getting his shot away and then after one good dribble in the centre of the goal on the edge of the box unchallenged he hit a very tame shot straight at the keeper (something else he does with alarming regularity)

I know his positives (and there are many) but his negatives are the difference between winning a league/cup and not
 
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Just needs a long run in the team and a bit of confidence in my opinion, he will come good next season i hope.
 

Psychedelic Casual

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Compared the top 20 PL scorers (before Spurs v Everton tonight) to see what the trends were, and even I was quite surprised.

Top 20 goalscorers in the league

Goals
Vardy - 21
Aubameyang - 19
Ings - 18
Salah - 17
Aguero - 16
Mane - 16
Jimenez - 15
Martial - 15
Rashford - 15
Abraham - 13
Calvert-Lewin - 13
Kane - 13
Sterling - 13
De Bruyne - 11
Pukki - 11
Richarlison - 11
Wood - 11
Jesus - 10
Ayew - 9
Willian - 9

Minutes
Jimenez - 2820
Aubameyang - 2747
Ayew - 2747
Richarlison - 2704
Pukki - 2654
Vardy - 2584
Salah - 2520
De Bruyne - 2466
Mane - 2434
Ings - 2365
Sterling - 2343
Willian - 2276
Calvert-Lewin - 2212
Rashford - 2210
Martial - 2201
Wood - 2090
Abraham - 2059
Kane - 2050
Jesus - 1644
Aguero - 1460

Shots
Jimenez - 108
Salah - 108
De Bruyne - 91
Rashford - 83
Aubameyang - 82
Jesus - 81
Richarlison - 81
Sterling - 81
Abraham - 78
Ings - 78
Aguero - 76
Pukki - 76
Calvert-Lewin - 75
Martial - 69
Vardy - 69
Kane - 66
Mane - 65
Willian - 65
Wood - 53
Ayew - 52

Shots on Target
Salah - 47
Jesus - 40
Jimenez - 39
Vardy - 38
Aubameyang - 37
Rashford - 37
Abraham - 36
Martial - 35
Calvert-Lewin - 34
Pukki - 34
Ings - 32
Mane - 31
Richarlison - 30
Aguero - 28
De Bruyne - 28
Kane - 28
Sterling - 27
Wood - 26
Willian - 25
Ayew - 23

Shot Accuracy
Vardy - 38/69 = 55.1%
Martial - 35/69 = 50.7%
Jesus - 40/81 = 49.4%
Wood - 26/53 = 49.1%
Mane - 31/65 = 47.7%
Abraham - 36/78 = 46.2%
Calvert-Lewin - 34/75 = 45.3%
Aubameyang - 37/82 = 45.1%
Pukki - 34/76 = 44.7%
Ayew - 23/52 = 44.2%
Rashford - 37/83 = 44.6%
Salah - 47/108 = 43.5%
Kane - 28/66 = 42.4%
Ings - 32/78 - 41%
Willian - 25/65 = 38.5%
Richarlison - 30/81 = 37%
Aguero - 28/76 = 36.8%
Jimenez - 39/108 = 36.1%
Sterling - 27/81 = 33.3%
De Bruyne - 28/91 = 30.8%

Conversion Rate
Vardy - 21/69 = 30.4%
Mane - 16/65 = 24.6%
Aubameyang - 19/82 = 23.2%
Ings - 18/78 = 23.1%
Martial - 15/69 = 21.7%
Aguero - 16/76 = 21.1%
Wood - 11/53 = 20.8%
Kane - 13/66 = 19.7%
Rashford - 15/83 = 18.1%
Ayew - 9/52 = 17.3%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/75 = 17.3%
Abraham - 13/78 = 16.7%
Sterling - 13/81 = 16.1%
Salah - 17/108 = 15.7%
Pukki - 11/76 = 14.5%
Jimenez - 15/108 = 13.9%
Willian - 9/65 = 13.8%
Richarlison - 11/81 = 13.7%
Jesus - 10/81 = 12.4%
De Bruyne - 11/91 = 12.1%

On Target Conversion Rate
Aguero - 16/28 = 57.1%
Ings - 18/32 = 56.3%
Vardy - 21/38 = 55.3%
Mane - 16/31 = 51.6%
Aubameyang - 19/37 = 51.4%
Sterling - 13/27 = 48.1%
Kane - 13/28 = 46.4%
Martial - 15/35 = 42.9%
Wood - 11/26 = 42.3%
Rashford - 15/37 = 40.6%
De Bruyne - 11/28 = 39.3%
Ayew - 9/23 = 39.1%
Jimenez - 15/39 = 38.5%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/34 = 38.2%
Richarlison - 11/30 = 36.7%
Salah - 17/47 = 36.2%
Abraham - 13/36 = 36.1%
Willian - 9/25 = 36%
Pukki - 11/34 = 32.4%
Jesus - 10/40 = 25%

Minutes per Goal
Aguero - 1460/16 = 91.25
Vardy - 2584/21 = 123.1
Ings - 2365/18 = 131.4
Aubameyang - 2747/19 = 144.6
Martial - 2201/15 = 146.7
Salah - 2520/17 = 148.23
Mane - 2434/16 = 152.12
Kane - 2050/13 = 157.7
Abraham - 2059/13 = 158.4
Jesus - 1644/10 = 164.4
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/13 = 170.15
Sterling - 2343/13 = 180.2
Jimenez - 2820/15 = 188
Wood - 2090/11 = 190
De Bruyne 2466/11 = 224.18
Pukki 2654/11 = 241.3
Richarlison - 2704/11 - 245.8
Willian - 2276/9 = 252.9
Ayew - 2747/9 = 305.2

Shots per Goal
Vardy - 69/21 = 3.29
Mane - 65/16 = 4.06
Aubameyang - 82/19 = 4.32
Ings - 78/18 = 4.33
Martial - 69/15 = 4.6
Aguero - 76/16 = 4.75
Wood - 53/11 - 4.82
Kane - 66/13 = 5.08
Rashford - 83/15 = 5.33
Calvert-Lewin - 75/13 = 5.77
Ayew - 52/9 = 5.78
Abraham - 78/13 = 6
Sterling - 81/13 = 6.23
Salah - 108/17 = 6.35
Pukki - 76/11 = 6.91
Jimenez - 108/15 = 7.2
Willian - 65/9 = 7.22
Richarlison - 81/11 - 7.36
Jesus - 81/10 = 8.1
De Bruyne - 91/11 = 8.27

Shots on Target per Goal
Aguero - 28/16 = 1.75
Ings - 32/18 = 1.78
Vardy - 38/21 = 1.81
Mane - 31/16 = 1.94
Aubameyang - 37/19 = 1.95
Sterling - 27/13 = 2.08
Kane - 28/13 - 2.15
Martial - 35/15 = 2.33
Wood - 26/11 = 2.36
Rashford - 37/15 = 2.47
De Bruyne - 28/11 - 2.55
Ayew - 23/9 = 2.56
Jimenez - 39/15 = 2.6
Calvert-Lewin - 34/13 = 2.62
Richarlison - 30/11 = 2.73
Salah - 47/17 = 2.76
Abraham - 13/36 = 2.77
Willian - 25/9 = 2.78
Pukki - 34/11 = 3.09
Jesus - 40/10 = 4.

Minutes per Shot
Aguero - 1460/76 = 19.2
Jesus - 1644/81 = 20.3
Salah - 2520/108 = 23.3
Jimenez - 2820/108 = 26.1
Abraham - 2059/78 = 26.4
Rashford - 2210/83 = 26.6
De Bruyne 2466/91 = 27.1
Sterling - 2343/81 = 28.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/75 = 29.5
Ings - 2365/78 = 30.3
Kane - 2050/66 = 31.1
Martial - 2201/69 = 31.9
Richarlison - 2704/81 = 33.4
Aubameyang - 2747/82 = 33.5
Pukki - 2654/76 = 34.9
Willian - 2276/65 = 35
Vardy - 2584/69 = 37.5
Mane - 2434/65 = 37.5
Wood - 2090/53 = 39.4
Ayew - 2747/52 = 52.8

Minutes per Shots on Target
Jesus - 1644/40 = 41.1
Aguero - 1460/28 = 52.1
Salah - 2520/47 = 53.6
Abraham - 2059/36 = 57.2
Rashford - 2210/37 = 59.7
Martial - 2201/35 = 62.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/34 = 65.1
Vardy - 2584/38 = 68
Jimenez - 2820/39 = 72.3
Kane - 2050/28 = 73.2
Ings - 2365/32 = 73.9
Aubameyang - 2747/37 = 74.2
Pukki - 2654/34 = 78.1
Mane - 2434/31 = 78.5
Wood - 2090/26 = 80.4
Sterling - 2343/27 = 86.8
De Bruyne - 2466/28 = 88.1
Richarlison - 2704/30 = 90.1
Willian - 2276/25 = 91
Ayew - 2747/23 = 119.4

Jesus has the second fewest minutes, but the second most shots on target. He is 3rd for shot accuracy, showing that he regularly hits the target and his chances are good enough for him to do so. So from that, you'd think lots of goals?

Well, he comes in second lowest in overall conversion rate, at 12.4%. It's low, but there are other more potent strikers like Jimenez, whose rate is not much better, so you're thinking, maybe it's quality of chance or some other factor.

Then you look at shots on target conversion rate, and he's suddenly bottom and at least 11% behind every other striker apart from Pukki, who plays in a Norwich team that has capitulated in the second half of the season towards relegation. This suddenly makes it clear where a striker who has a high shot accuracy and lots of shots on target doesn't score any goals.

It's backed up by switching the conversion rate into number of shots needed to score. Jesus is second bottom overall and bottom for shots on target, as you can see he is taking twice as many as would be considered good. Even more starkly, Jesus and Aguero have shots more frequently than any of the top 20, and Jesus is the only player to have a shot on target in every single half on average.

What does this show? That ultimately Jesus gets in good positions, gets plenty of chances, hits the target, but doesn't score. That's why he's so frustrating, whereas Raheem misses the target far more often but when he does hit the target, his scoring rate is good. Jesus has a fundamental flaw that means he's not prolific.

At Jesus rate of shots on target, if he'd had Jimenez playing time of 2,820 minutes, he'd have had 68 shots on target. At his shots on target conversion rate, he'd have scored 17 goals. With the same number of shots on target, Sergio would have 38 goals, Vardy 37 and Calvert-Lewin 25.

In fact if Aguero and Vardy had had Jesus 40 shots on target he'd have 22 goals and Ayew would have 17 goals.

If Vardy had had Jesus conversion rate, he'd have only 9 league goals and Aguero would have 7.

So, for all the talk, it all boils down to a man with the best chances, the most frequent chances, the ability to hit the target but the complete inability to hit the back of the net. That's why people are so frustrated, and that's why they're looking at alternatives.
Great post.

Ive noticed that Jesus half scuffs a lot of shots too deep in his instep using his heel a lot of the time. He looks like he never quite gets proper clean contact on the ball with the sweet spot on the middle of the instep.

This often means he hits the ’keeper.

I know comparisons are hard and sometimes harsh, but have a look at any Jimmy Greaves or Kun Agüero goals videos and look at how they both put the ball right in the corner of the goal, just inside the post, where the ’keeper can’t get it. They’re the two best players at that in football history for me. They did/do it with such precision and such regularity it’s quite astonishing.

Jesus needs to work on this. The timing of the contact in the right part of the foot and where the ball ends up. But it only takes one or two examples of doing it for it to click with a player.

I really like him though and hope it’s him that develops into our long term main striker rather than someone else.
 

mikemcfc

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I agree we're not as good, not because they're selfish but because we're half the side with inverted wingers instead of proper ones.

Jesus has 17 league goals in 2 years, the majority coming in December and January and against 5 teams (Everton, Burnley, West Ham, Leicester and Palace), and as I've shown he gets the chances and he hits the target. Aguero converts 57%, he converts 25% and that's when they've had a good enough chance to hit the target. The argument isn't that he needs to be at 50%, even if he was back at 17/18 levels (around 38%) he'd have half a dozen more goals and that can make a huge difference.

So I can accept we're not as good a side with Sterling and Mahrez, but when it comes to good chances, which both Aguero and Jesus get plenty of, Gabby isn't doing enough in the past 2 seasons by his own previous standards. That's on him.
I can agree to disagree, as do others about the quality of chances.
but Raz and Mahrez aren't selfish?
That's some proper Worldy War II propaganda there.
 

PannickAtTheDisco

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I can agree to disagree, as do others about the quality of chances.
but Raz and Mahrez aren't selfish?
That's some proper Worldy War II propaganda there.
I didn't say there weren't selfish, I said it's not the reason we're not as good, which is us switching from traditional to inverted wingers.
 

PannickAtTheDisco

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Great post.

Ive noticed that Jesus half scuffs a lot of shots too deep in his instep using his heel a lot of the time. He looks like he never quite gets proper clean contact on the ball with the sweet spot on the middle of the instep.

This often means he hits the ’keeper.

I know comparisons are hard and sometimes harsh, but have a look at any Jimmy Greaves or Kun Agüero goals videos and look at how they both put the ball right in the corner of the goal, just inside the post, where the ’keeper can’t get it. They’re the two best players at that in football history for me. They did/do it with such precision and such regularity it’s quite astonishing.

Jesus needs to work on this. The timing of the contact in the right part of the foot and where the ball ends up. But it only takes one or two examples of doing it for it to click with a player.

I really like him though and hope it’s him that develops into our long term main striker rather than someone else.
That's what my dad and I commented on in 2011 when we first watched him live, Serg is a natural born finisher, there's a purity and excellence to strikers who nestle the ball in the side netting and he used to do it all the time.
 

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