General Election - December 12th, 2019

[Cheesy]

Morning all :-)

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The 75 ish majority is interesting, and my memory says that the boundary changes to come are thought to favour the Conservatives as well in how they affect seats.
75 is enough that Johnson is freed from the ERG, as he doesn't now need them. How 'hard' a Brexit will he pursue?

Off Brexit policies:
All those new MPs in places like Bury and Bassetlaw - will they be considered in domestic policy? Will they go 'hard right' for 2 years and then try to make it look less bad for the election run-up? Will the party consider them from the start? Will the party just not care about them? Will the party be worried about where the Brexit Party voters will revert to next time around?

Scotland:
What kind of arrangement will Johnson make with the SNP? They can't have a formal referendum without Westminster agreement, but what will both sides give in order to have a working arrangement?

Will Johnson get bored (hi, Call Me Dave!)? Who are actually the creators of what will be government policy?

Marginally less serious:
Johnson will be on the job night and day, he says. No change there then! Rumours of a safe-fridge being installed are only rumours.
As Andrew Neil (might have been Marr) said to Farage, good luck with voting reform vs a 75 seat majority!

 

[argyle]

As mentioned earlier the leaflet I got from labour I studied and read but they said I'd get a final say on Brexit.
I did that in 2016 and initially they (labour) said they would honour it, they didn't.
Also their policies were absolute tosh and unworkable.

Again though Boris voted against a Brexit deal 3 times and then agreed a deal himself which tied the UK to the EU even more.

However the UK media ignored all that and allowed his Get Brexit Done routine to be the dominant message.

 

[inbetween]

Re - evaluated

Scotland could be sitting on more than double the amount of oil and gas reserves currently predicted, a new independent industry investigation has found. The investigation reveals that the scale of Scotland’s untapped frontier West Coast or Atlantic Margin has been underestimated.
The investigation was undertaken by oilandgaspeople.com, the world’s largest oil and gas industry jobs board, and independent North Sea oil and gas industry experts. The investigation included interviews with industry experts and collated seismic and expert evidence from a range of independent sources such as the British Geological Survey, DECC, oil and gas companies, the Institute of Petroleum Engineering and the Energy Institute.
The findings show that the current predictions of extensive untapped reserves of oil and gas could be underestimated by 100%. The West Coast alone could provide oil and gas for over 100 years with an estimated value of more than £1 trillion.

If Scotland leaves the UK and comes to rely upon oil then seriously they are in for a whole world of pain. Oil is one of the most volatile and politically sensitive commodities there is.

If you understand the oil industry then you'll understand that sitting on any number of oil reserves is pointless. Oil has to be taken from the ground, refined and then sold as a final product. All of that comes at a cost.

The amount of oil under Scottish waters is therefore irrelevant, all that matters is whether those oil reserves are feasible and profitable which is driven by the cost it takes to get it of the ground against the oil price of the day.

The Saudi oil companies etc are major producers, Scotland is not. They could put Scotland out of business overnight because they can absorb low oil prices. We saw this immediately after the Scottish referendum when Saudi oil tankers were circling in the gulf because of high supply.

It would be utter stupidity to leave the UK.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

What do you mean "harvested the data"? That in itself isn't illegal.

Which is why he's said he's done nothing with it......

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2019/10/jennifer-arcuri-and-vote-leave.html

 

[Ban-jani]

which poll are you referencing?

YouGov’s one from this week.

 

[Len Rum]

I'm breathing a sigh of relief this morning... I said if Alyn and Deeside went Tory I'd show my arse in Woolworth's window... 215 seats between the two parties but @Labour clung on

You've got a Woolworths?

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

If Scotland leaves the UK and comes to rely upon oil then seriously they are in for a whole world of pain. Oil is one of the most volatile and politically sensitive commodities there is.

If you understand the oil industry then you'll understand that sitting on any number of oil reserves is pointless. Oil has to be taken from the ground, refined and then sold as a final product. All of that comes at a cost.

The amount of oil under Scottish waters is therefore irrelevant, all that matters is whether those oil reserves are feasible and profitable which is driven by the cost it takes to get it of the ground against the oil price of the day.

The Saudi oil companies etc are major producers, Scotland is not. They could put Scotland out of business overnight because they can absorb low oil prices. We saw this immediately after the Scottish referendum when Saudi oil tankers were circling in the gulf because of high supply.

It would be utter stupidity to leave the UK.

But they will .... Guaranteed trade deal with the Eu perhaps .... giving the Eu fuel security ?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

And how will Scotland defend those waters with no navy, no army, no nuclear nuclear deterrent and no currency?

I do love how the same left wing nutters who insist the UK, (primarily financed through England) one of the most powerful nations in the world, is suicidal to leave Europe but in the same breath think Scotland will prosper alone. No Scottish NHS, length of accession to join the EU - English refusal to allow EU on to our door step - none of it matters in la la land does it?

Defending waters!
Are you advocating annexing what could be an independent country? Or just blockading and stealing stuff?

The economic side is very complicated, and would take years to determine before actually going independent, but not having a navy is unlikely to be a problem.

 

[M18CTID]

If Scotland leaves the UK and comes to rely upon oil then seriously they are in for a whole world of pain. Oil is one of the most volatile and politically sensitive commodities there is.

If you understand the oil industry then you'll understand that sitting on any number of oil reserves is pointless. Oil has to be taken from the ground, refined and then sold as a final product. All of that comes at a cost.

The amount of oil under Scottish waters is therefore irrelevant, all that matters is whether those oil reserves are feasible and profitable which is driven by the cost it takes to get it of the ground against the oil price of the day.

The Saudi oil companies etc are major producers, Scotland is not. They could put Scotland out of business overnight because they can absorb low oil prices. We saw this immediately after the Scottish referendum when Saudi oil tankers were circling in the gulf because of high supply.

It would be utter stupidity to leave the UK.

As someone who works in oil and gas, and has witnessed first hand the decimation of the oil industry north of the border due to these issues, this post is bang on the money.