General Election June 8th

[cibaman]

I think the Tories in government without a decent majority is a hugely toxic party, internally.

They are so divided on Europe. Still. There are people within that party who will be hugely poisonous at what they will see as too slow a pace of withdrawal. She'll need a decent majority to keep them on a leash. Brexit will require a steady hand, if it's going to be relatively painless. Don't see May, with a small majority, keeping it all together and delivering the goods; not based on her piss poor performance over the last few weeks. I happen to think that how someone conducts an election campaign is hugely indicative of the tactical and strategic decisions they would make in office and negotiating an exit treaty. It's wholly analogous.

If her credibly is shot btw, that fortifies my point further. She'll be a fucking liability at the negotiating table.

Quite simply, right now, I'd rather have Corbyn conducting those negotiations.

Disagree with the last sentence. Even if Labour do "win" from here then the chances of them having an overall majority are miniscule. Its still going to be a minority government. So the negotiations would depend on Corbyn reaching an agreement on negotiating strategy with the SNP and possibly the LibDems. Two parties that don't believe we should be negotiating in the first place (one of which doesn't want to be part of the UK once the negotiations are complete) and a government that is half hearted at best. I voted Remain and would welcome a 2nd referendum, but not in those circumstances. It would tear the country apart.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

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How big could be hugely relevant. Needs to be by a decent margin. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

From callling the election, to refusing to engage in the debates she's displayed spectacularly bad judgement. So much so, I now think Corbyn would be the lesser of two evils.

I am the same but then I think of dianne as Home Secretary and I think I won't bother voting at all....

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

So we can reduce the deficit and keep the majority of the private sector employed at the same time is my short answer.

Even the Financial Times is saying that the Conservative plan to reduce the deficit by the equivalent of 1% of GDP in both 2018 and 2019 will weaken growth significantly.

 

[Peggy's a blue]

That's a coincidence Corbyn deciding to attend "the debate" at the last minute, and, being greeted by the "most left wing audience in history" and being loudly cheered by the vast majority all the time just saying

 

[Damocles]

You love an analogy, so you live in Manchester and enjoy your beer. In your local, where you happily know everyone it's £3.50 per pint. You can buy beer at the pub next door for £3 but it's not as comfy and you don't know the people as well so fuck it. Your local then changes management and they decide to take the price to £6.50 per pint. You think fuck this, I'll try next door after all.

Added to that many companies are there:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/05/ireland-attracts-soaring-level-of-us-investment

As has also been stated, especially when added to Brexit, many may well locate there to stay within the single market and increasing the current rate to more than double that of the English speaking cousins who reside on our doorstep would be foolhardy.

That analogy presumes we're doubling almost so doesn't make sense.

Using your own analogy wouldn't it be more accurate to suggest a pint used to cost £4, now costs £3.90 and is going back to £4?

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

I'm always happy to do hip hop versions of Soviet patriotic anthems, written by the glorious workers of farm collective 42 outside Novgorod.

I hear your line-dancing version of the Red Flag is a show-stopper.

 

[Ban-jani]

Even the Financial Times is saying that the Conservative plan to reduce the deficit by the equivalent of 1% of GDP in both 2018 and 2019 will weaken growth significantly.

Well I'm no finance expert but surely that's one journalists opinion?

I don't see how corporation tax cuts and cuts to the public sector would do that.

 

[Ban-jani]

That analogy presumes we're doubling almost so doesn't make sense.

Using your own analogy wouldn't it be more accurate to suggest a pint used to cost £4, now costs £3.90 and is going back to £4?

Yeah but now the music is too loud and you can't hear anyone.

 

[blue_paul]

You have to be careful of social media bubbles though. No one I work with has even mentioned the election. We all know that middle England in the marginals hold the answer and I can't see anything but a Tory win by an increased majority. How big it is isn't that relevant.

I'd agree with that Hilts. Social media comment is dominated by the young and liberal and I really think people are coming to false presumptions about a possible election upset. The tories will still have a very strong majority, I'd be shocked otherwise.
May will be lucky to hold on to her job regardless, I cannot fathom how poorly she's run the election.
I'll add I'm neither a tory, nor even British, just an interested outsider.

 

[hilts]

I'd agree with that Hilts. Social media comment is dominated by the young and liberal and I really think people are coming to false presumptions about a possible election upset. The tories will still have a very strong majority, I'd be shocked otherwise.
May will be lucky to hold on to her job regardless, I cannot fathom how poorly she's run the election.
I'll add I'm neither a tory, nor even British, just an interested outsider.

I think she was hoping that labour would do her job for her based on the last couple of years of in fighting and general fuckwittery. Unfortunately for her they seem to be pretty bullish in staying on point and appearing unified. As recent events have shown us polls cannot be trusted but the Tories decided to swallow them hook line and sinker.

 

[cibaman]

I'd agree with that Hilts. Social media comment is dominated by the young and liberal and I really think people are coming to false presumptions about a possible election upset. The tories will still have a very strong majority, I'd be shocked otherwise.
May will be lucky to hold on to her job regardless, I cannot fathom how poorly she's run the election.
I'll add I'm neither a tory, nor even British, just an interested outsider.

I think she'll keep her job (for the time being) as long as the Tory majority isn't cut. I just dont think there'll be any appetite on the part of her rivals to take on the job until the brexit negotiations are complete or break down.

The nightmare scenario is that the Tories end up as the single biggest party but without an overall majority. There's no chance of them forming a minority government, that ship sank when Paddy Ashdown realised he needed an excuse to avoid heating his hat. 2nd election in July?

 

[blue_paul]

I think she was hoping that labour would do her job for her based on the last couple of years of in fighting and general fuckwittery. Unfortunately for her they seem to be pretty bullish in staying on point and appearing unified. As recent events have shown us polls cannot be trusted but the Tories decided to swallow them hook line and sinker.

I understand that to a degree for the reason you outlined, Tory strategists said just sit back and let's watch Labour tear themselves apart.
Surely though, they must of thought with Labour rising in the polls that May should have attended last night’s leaders debate and stood behind her policies and showed a bit of 'leadership'.
A rather large theme running through this election is who will best suit Britain's needs in negotiating with Merkel, Macron, Junker and the rest and she continues to hide away!
Students of election campaigns will look at this as a case study in years to come at how not to do things.
The Conservative’s won’t lose but she's still goosed.

 

[blue_paul]

I think she'll keep her job (for the time being) as long as the Tory majority isn't cut. I just dont think there'll be any appetite on the part of her rivals to take on the job until the brexit negotiations are complete or break down.

The nightmare scenario is that the Tories end up as the single biggest party but without an overall majority. There's no chance of them forming a minority government, that ship sank when Paddy Ashdown realised he needed an excuse to avoid heating his hat. 2nd election in July?

Oh god, it's beginning to look like Italy with all the bloody elections. I really think a 'stable' government is needed through these Brexit negotiations, it's in nobodies interest for a fair and transparent deal not to happen, especially us Irish!

 

[hilts]

I understand that to a degree for the reason you outlined, Tory strategists said just sit back and let's watch Labour tear themselves apart.
Surely though, they must of thought with Labour rising in the polls that May should have attended last night’s leaders debate and stood behind her policies and showed a bit of 'leadership'.
A rather large theme running through this election is who will best suit Britain's needs in negotiating with Merkel, Macron, Junker and the rest and she continues to hide away!
Students of election campaigns will look at this as a case study in years to come at how not to do things.
The Conservative’s won’t lose but she's still goosed.

She was goosed yesterday either she flip flopped(people seem to hate that) when balaclava man said he was going to show up or she stuck to her guns(people seem to hate that). The event itself was pretty shit and served very little purpose in terms of policy. All those parties are basically Labour with a vested interest thrown in except UKIP who are right wing Tories. 6 on to 1 doesn't give people a balanced debate.

A long debate May Vs Balackava man with them both doing their homework and a decent interviewer would have been far more worthwhile. We will see next week if her plan has worked. I personally don't take staunch corbyn supporters views into account but other normal folk seem to agree with me that she has had a poor election.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I hear your line-dancing version of the Red Flag is a show-stopper.

It is, my ode to a faulty nuclear power station won a turnip at the Grozny gulag for wayward socialists.

 

[bluemoonmatt]

I think its being generous to describe Corbyn as marmite and maybe not unfair to suggest he is roundly disliked/untrusted, I'm traditionally Labour but I can't stand the man, I've not yet decided if I'll vote as I generally always have, in fact if I'll vote at all. That all said, there are definite cracks appearing in the Tory machine, what should really have been a landlside seems to be imploding around them. I still expect they will win and retain a proper majority but anything less than an increase in their seats must be viewed as a failure on May's part, and despite her making it clear early doors she didn't plan to appear on any TV debates the fact she has not looks like a massive own goal now.

For my part, hopefully we will be seeing two new leaders of the main parties come July and while I don't give a f--- who runs the nasty lot, I pray we see someone more in tune with the WIDER electorate running Labour.

 

[Peggy's a blue]

Oh god, it's beginning to look like Italy with all the bloody elections. I really think a 'stable' government is needed through these Brexit negotiations, it's in nobodies interest for a fair and transparent deal not to happen, especially us Irish!

I was in italy recently ( Sorrento) lot of dissatisfaction with EU, unemployment in that region 43 % , they were welcoming summer with the seasonal jobs it brings, although dreading the influx of boat people, Naples has a huge problem, I saw a large shanty town in what I thought previously was a smart, sophisticated city. Looked like one of those African places you see the celebrities show to raise awareness of poverty. I would have thought the anti Europe parties would do well in that region.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

In deciding the size of the Conservative majority In no particular order, these strike me as being key factors:

(1) UKIP support - how much goes left and how much goes right
(2) the young vote - does it mobilise, and who for
(3) the old - reaction to the dementia payment plan
(4) Brexit - do people want the hardline May approach or the more conciliatory Corbyn approach? This will affect (1)
(5) which economic approach is preferred.

I suspect (1) is the key, and (2) and (3) will be relatively minor in effect. I think (5) is pretty much set for most people who consider it important, and won't change.

 

[SWP's back]

That analogy presumes we're doubling almost so doesn't make sense.

Using your own analogy wouldn't it be more accurate to suggest a pint used to cost £4, now costs £3.90 and is going back to £4?

No, not really, it suggest it was £2.60 and now it's £1.70 (which is competitive compared to the pikey boozer next door where it's £1.25), but it's gonna go back to £2.60 which is more than double 'The Travellers Arms' which is now looking rather attractive despite the sticky carpets.

This is a fun analogy.

 

[blue_paul]

I was in italy recently ( Sorrento) lot of dissatisfaction with EU, unemployment in that region 43 % , they were welcoming summer with the seasonal jobs it brings, although dreading the influx of boat people, Naples has a huge problem, I saw a large shanty town in what I thought previously was a smart, sophisticated city. Looked like one of those African places you see the celebrities show to raise awareness of poverty. I would have thought the anti Europe parties would do well in that region.

Some of their major banks are in big trouble too, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the PIGS left the Euro in the short to medium term, it just doesn't seem to work for them.
I was in Naples years ago, smashing place, beautiful if a bit chaotic UNESCO world heritage site 'Old Town', amazing Pizza, top class fanny and strewn mountains of rubbish all over the shop due to the mafia having control of that particular industry. A fascinating place.