Goals 2019/20 | League 102 | All Comps 148

102 in 38 games. With 4 blanks it's 102 in 34 games.

in 11 games we scored 4 or more, so 55 goals in 11 games, meaning 47 in the remaining 27 games.

Adding in games where we scored 3, it's 73 goals in 17 games, meaning 29 goals in the remaining 21 games.

So you can see we formed a pattern of when we were on a roll, thrashing teams for fun, but over half our games were tight affairs and it's no surprise the 12 games we dropped points in are in there, so a Jekyll and Hyde season in front of goal, which is remarkable given the overall number.

In comparison.

4+ goals:
19/20: 11 times, 55 goals in 11 games, W11 D0 L0.
18/19: 7 times, 36 goals in 7 games, W7 D0 L0.
17/18: 10 times, 49 goals in 10 games, W10 D0 L0.

3+ goals:
19/20: 17 times, 73 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
18/19: 17 times, 66 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
17/18: 21 times, 82 goals in 21 games, W20 D0 L1.

<3 goals:
19/20: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W9 D3 L9.
18/19: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W15 D2 L4.
17/18: 17 times, 24 goals in 17 games, W12 D4 L1.

Quite a symmetry really, the difference being clearly the mentality and defensive frailty in those tighter games this season. The profligacy has been there and it's just mattered more this season because of the weaknesses at the other end, hence why frustrations have bubbled over.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
102 in 38 games. With 4 blanks it's 102 in 34 games.

in 11 games we scored 4 or more, so 55 goals in 11 games, meaning 47 in the remaining 27 games.

Adding in games where we scored 3, it's 73 goals in 17 games, meaning 29 goals in the remaining 21 games.

So you can see we formed a pattern of when we were on a roll, thrashing teams for fun, but over half our games were tight affairs and it's no surprise the 12 games we dropped points in are in there, so a Jekyll and Hyde season in front of goal, which is remarkable given the overall number.

In comparison.

4+ goals:
19/20: 11 times, 55 goals in 11 games, W11 D0 L0.
18/19: 7 times, 36 goals in 7 games, W7 D0 L0.
17/18: 10 times, 49 goals in 10 games, W10 D0 L0.

3+ goals:
19/20: 17 times, 73 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
18/19: 17 times, 66 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
17/18: 21 times, 82 goals in 21 games, W20 D0 L1.

<3 goals:
19/20: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W9 D3 L9.
18/19: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W15 D2 L4.
17/18: 17 times, 24 goals in 17 games, W12 D4 L1.

Quite a symmetry really, the difference being clearly the mentality and defensive frailty in those tighter games this season. The profligacy has been there and it's just mattered more this season because of the weaknesses at the other end, hence why frustrations have bubbled over.
Click to expand...
Interesting stats those, and shows a drop off this season when we struggle to score, or go behind, but we knew that, and as I highlighted in another thread, some of those we lost we still had more than 20 shots on goal

It needs to be sorted out, and yet we only ended up conceding 2 more goals than the "bestest defence" ever TM.
 
cleavers said:
Interesting stats those, and shows a drop off this season when we struggle to score, or go behind, but we knew that, and as I highlighted in another thread, some of those we lost we still had more than 20 shots on goal

It needs to be sorted out, and yet we only ended up conceding 2 more goals than the "bestest defence" ever TM.
Click to expand...

True, but they kept the edge we had from last season where those tight games went our way. This season shows where they got the edge:

Offensive
4+ goals:
City: 11 times, 55 goals in 11 games, W11 D0 L0.
Dippers: 6 times, 26 goals in 6 games, W6 D0 L0.

3+ goals:
City: 17 times, 73 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
Dippers: 14 times, 50 goals in 14 games, W14 D0 L0.

<3 goals:
City: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W9 D3 L9.
Dippers: 24 times, 35 goals in 24 games, W18 D3 L3.

Defensive
Clean Sheets:
City: 17 times, W17 D0 L0.
Dippers: 15 times, W14 D1 L0.

1 goal:
City: 10 times, W9 D0 L1
Dippers: 17 times, W15 D2 L0.

2 goals:
City: 8 times, W0 D3 L5.
Dippers: 3 times, W2 D0 L1.

>2 goals:
City: 3 times, W0 D0 L3.
Dippers: 3 times, W1 D0 L2.

The season has swung, yes with VAR to help, but on those tight games. Liverpool's record in games where they've not scored many, despite conceding in at least 23 games has got them through, allied to them conceding 2 or more goals only 6 times compared to our 11, when we haven't won a single one of those games. That 5 game swing is 15 points, and even just have our shooting boots on a day where we concede 2 or more is a key difference maker. Fine margins, and grinding it out and having that mental edge is key, and it's what's disappeared this season.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Liverpool's record in games where they've not scored many, despite conceding in at least 23 games has got them through, allied to them conceding 2 or more goals only 6 times compared to our 11, when we haven't won a single one of those games. That 5 game swing is 15 points, and even just have our shooting boots on a day where we concede 2 or more is a key difference maker.
Click to expand...
A pretty damning stat.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
True, but they kept the edge we had from last season where those tight games went our way. This season shows where they got the edge:

Offensive
4+ goals:
City: 11 times, 55 goals in 11 games, W11 D0 L0.
Dippers: 6 times, 26 goals in 6 games, W6 D0 L0.

3+ goals:
City: 17 times, 73 goals in 17 games, W17 D0 L0.
Dippers: 14 times, 50 goals in 14 games, W14 D0 L0.

<3 goals:
City: 21 times, 29 goals in 21 games, W9 D3 L9.
Dippers: 24 times, 35 goals in 24 games, W18 D3 L3.

Defensive
Clean Sheets:
City: 17 times, W17 D0 L0.
Dippers: 15 times, W14 D1 L0.

1 goal:
City: 10 times, W9 D0 L1
Dippers: 17 times, W15 D2 L0.

2 goals:
City: 8 times, W0 D3 L5.
Dippers: 3 times, W2 D0 L1.

>2 goals:
City: 3 times, W0 D0 L3.
Dippers: 3 times, W1 D0 L2.

The season has swung, yes with VAR to help, but on those tight games. Liverpool's record in games where they've not scored many, despite conceding in at least 23 games has got them through, allied to them conceding 2 or more goals only 6 times compared to our 11, when we haven't won a single one of those games. That 5 game swing is 15 points, and even just have our shooting boots on a day where we concede 2 or more is a key difference maker. Fine margins, and grinding it out and having that mental edge is key, and it's what's disappeared this season.
Click to expand...
It’s also helpful to drill down even further to help explain the potential impact of VAR and favourable officiating on marginal outcomes in the context of the points swing to which you refer.

Offensive

Won by 1 goal:
City: 6 times
Liverpool: 13 times

Draws:
City: 3 times
Liverpool: 3 times

Defensive

Lost by 1 goal:
City: 5 times
Liverpool: 1 time

Now think of what happened in our games compared to what happened in theirs.

I am not implying that we should have beaten them outright, by any means — we would have absolutely still been behind them at the restart without VAR intervention (or lack thereof), favourable refereeing, and opposition “incompetence”, as we just weren’t as consistently good before the break as we have been in the past two seasons for a few reasons.

But I think it would not be unreasonable to say we could have been coming back only 9 points behind without all of the “luck” going their way and against us.

Given they dropped 10 points after the restart, and could have very well dropped more if their especially dominant position and other factors weren’t helping them to some degree even after, it could have been a much tighter race.

What’s done is done, of course, but I think many are still underestimating how much those favourable, marginal interventions changed the course of the season (especially the earlier ones for them and against us, which are great examples of cumulative impact over time), and are perhaps overestimating how much of an “edge” Liverpool had throughout.
 
SebastianBlue said:
It’s also helpful to drill down even further to help explain the potential impact of VAR and favourable officiating on marginal outcomes in the context of the points swing to which you refer.

Offensive

Won by 1 goal:
City: 6 times
Liverpool: 13 times

Draws:
City: 3 times
Liverpool: 3 times

Defensive

Lost by 1 goal:
City: 5 times
Liverpool: 1 time

Now think of what happened in our games compared to what happened in theirs.

I am not implying that we should have beaten them outright, by any means — we would have absolutely still been behind them at the restart without VAR intervention (or lack thereof), favourable refereeing, and opposition “incompetence”, as we just weren’t as consistently good before the break as we have been in the past two seasons for a few reasons.

But I think it would not be unreasonable to say we could have been coming back only 9 points behind without all of the “luck” going their way and against us.

Given they dropped 10 points after the restart, and could have very well dropped more if their especially dominant position and other factors weren’t helping them to some degree even after, it could have been a much tighter race.

What’s done is done, of course, but I think many are still underestimating how much those favourable, marginal interventions changed the course of the season (especially the earlier ones for them and against us, which are great examples of cumulative impact over time), and are perhaps overestimating how much of an “edge” Liverpool had throughout.
Click to expand...

I think the season was set at Spurs at home. Our defensive lapses and profligate finishing put us in an unnecessary position and we sneaked the winner to bail ourselves out, get out of jail free and kickstart Jesus's and our season with a bit of momentum. Then VAR screwed us and we gave up on the spot, other incidents later just added to the loss of our mental edge but that was it, in game 2. We beat ourselves and then just as we bailed ourselves out were beaten by the system. Then Laporte went down and sheer incompetence by the replacements sealed the margin, but the mentality was gone the minute Oliver did his silly little rectangle to rule it out.

The reality is we should never have been in that position, but perhaps the mentality was we were always fighting an uphill battle and that just derailed us earlier than expected. I think otherwise Anfield would have been that moment, as we fold there 9/10 times, but PIGMOL got their opportunity earlier than expected due to our own failings and we just disappeared all season other than against teams we could bully.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
I think the season was set at Spurs at home. Our defensive lapses and profligate finishing put us in an unnecessary position and we sneaked the winner to bail ourselves out, get out of jail free and kickstart Jesus's and our season with a bit of momentum. Then VAR screwed us and we gave up on the spot, other incidents later just added to the loss of our mental edge but that was it, in game 2. We beat ourselves and then just as we bailed ourselves out were beaten by the system. Then Laporte went down and sheer incompetence by the replacements sealed the margin, but the mentality was gone the minute Oliver did his silly little rectangle to rule it out.

The reality is we should never have been in that position, but perhaps the mentality was we were always fighting an uphill battle and that just derailed us earlier than expected. I think otherwise Anfield would have been that moment, as we fold there 9/10 times, but PIGMOL got their opportunity earlier than expected due to our own failings and we just disappeared all season other than against teams we could bully.
Click to expand...
That is part of the ‘cumulative impact over time’ (negative) that I referenced.

The reverse cumulative impact (positive) can be applied to Liverpool, which gained a momentum we have enjoyed in the past, in large part because of our stunted start and the advantages they were getting each match round.

As I said, we were not as consistently good before the break as we have been in the past, and that cost us, but there was more to the outcome of this season than merely our *relative* inconsistency.

And given the topic of this thread, I am not sure our failure to win the title back-to-back-to-back can really substantially be attributed to our profligacy in front of goal, as there will always be those types of discrete situations (matches) were we find it difficult to breakdown 11 men behind the ball.

Just ask Liverpool... and the officials that aided them through a few of those matches.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Defensive
Clean Sheets:
City: 17 times, W17 D0 L0.
Dippers: 15 times, W14 D1 L0.

1 goal:
City: 10 times, W9 D0 L1
Dippers: 17 times, W15 D2 L0.

2 goals:
City: 8 times, W0 D3 L5.
Dippers: 3 times, W2 D0 L1.

>2 goals:
City: 3 times, W0 D0 L3.
Dippers: 3 times, W1 D0 L2.
Click to expand...
These stats are pretty damning, because they show the opposite of previous seasons, where we might lose through a fluky goal and a team shutting up shop. The fact that most of our defeats came from teams scoring 2 or more goals suggests that we were a team that could easily be got at this season. Obviously losing our two best defenders, one permanently and one through injury, for most of the season has destroyed our season. It's not a coincidence that since the restart with Laporte available we've actually topped the mini league.
 
I'm With Stupid said:
These stats are pretty damning, because they show the opposite of previous seasons, where we might lose through a fluky goal and a team shutting up shop. The fact that most of our defeats came from teams scoring 2 or more goals suggests that we were a team that could easily be got at this season. Obviously losing our two best defenders, one permanently and one through injury, for most of the season has destroyed our season. It's not a coincidence that since the restart with Laporte available we've actually topped the mini league.
Click to expand...
Had we put our chances away in most of the games we conceded 2, we'd have probably won 5 or 6 more games, so while losing Kompany (last season and we had a summer to sort that), and then Laporte is important, it's not been our only issue.
 
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