Is war imminent

[urban genie]

Terrain mate, all those countries bar Iraq had the terrain for guerrilla warfare. Iran's open and flat desert as far as I know.

Mountains and basins the Zagros range being the biggest, not as flat as people think the persian plateau

 

[SWP's back]

Doubt China would stand a chance tbh, the manpower would mean nothing if the yanks were capable of destroying all their communications and equipment instantly and they are capable of it. Even Russia are probably in a place where MAD would be their only recourse.

Yeah I didn’t mean stand a chance of winning (not that a conventional war would ever see a winner due to MAD stopping it becoming conventional), I meant they’d be the only ones that would last more than a few months*

*nb am aware of Vietnam but that was more due to public opinion than battlefield losses

 

[aguero93:20]

Mountains and basins the Zagros range being the biggest, not as flat as people think the persian plateau

But open enough mountains still aren't they? There's nothing like Torah-Borah there.

Anyone can conquer the cities of Afghanistan, nobody has ever conquered the mountains.

 

[aguero93:20]

Yeah I didn’t mean stand a chance of winning (not that a conventional war would ever see a winner due to MAD stopping it becoming conventional), I meant they’d be the only ones that would last more than a few months*

*nb am aware of Vietnam but that was more due to public opinion than battlefield losses

And jungle. The jungle fucked the US recon up.

 

[Ric]

New York Times reporting that Trump approved strikes on Iran last night, only to “abruptly pull back”.

 

[FCBarca]

Bumbling into a war with Iran, on the other hand, has a different likelihood with no less disastrous consequences for the world

 

[Indaparkside]

He'll want his ratings up for realection

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

He'll want his ratings up for realection

R4 Today show this AM were reporting that Tucker Carlson had possibly intervened to stop the attack. Unbelievable if true and that is the premier UK BBC morning news show.

The issue you have with trump is while he was talked down this time he has form for looping back round on issues and what he backs away from today he might follow through with tomorrow.

 

[goalmole]

*Please note I don’t think the following will happen nor do I want it to*

I honestly think that IF the Yanks wanted to roll over Iran like they did against Iraq (and Russia stay out of it) then the conventional war would last about two to three weeks. There’s never been a more hi tech, modern fighting force. Their air power alone would reduce the Iranian’s military command and control to rubble in a night. The only countries that would stand a chance against the Yanks would be Russia and China and that’s entirely due to man power.

If the US attacked the Iranians, it would make Vietnam seem like a picnic, with the Chinese and Russians backing the Iranians. There is no way they would accept US dominance in their own back yards. Once it happened all bets would be off. Self preservation would guarantee local, regional and world powers in the area would get involved and escalation would happen with unintended and unforeseeable consequences.
The Americans need to think long and hard about where they are going with this, and tbf, I think they have stepped back from retaliating the drone downing because, regardless of their bluster, they realise this.
This now leads to another problem for Trump and he will now, with hindsight, see the reasons why Obama chose to negotiate the treaty with Iran rather than attack them. Having voluntarily withdrawn from the containment treaty, he finds himself with zero leverage or trust with the Iranians. The Iranians have called his bluff by shooting down his drone without retaliation. I predict the Iranians will restart their uranium enrichment programme very shortly and I expect the US to be able to do nothing about it beyond threats and sanctions which are pretty much maxed out anyway.
This has been a humongous blunder by Trump and the US, and the Iranians will take full advantage of it.

 

[SWP's back]

If the US attacked the Iranians, it would make Vietnam seem like a picnic, with the Chinese and Russians backing the Iranians. There is no way they would accept US dominance in their own back yards. Once it happened all bets would be off. Self preservation would guarantee local, regional and world powers in the area would get involved and escalation would happen with unintended and unforeseeable consequences.
The Americans need to think long and hard about where they are going with this, and tbf, I think they have stepped back from retaliating the drone downing because, regardless of their bluster, they realise this.
This now leads to another problem for Trump and he will now, with hindsight, see the reasons why Obama chose to negotiate the treaty with Iran rather than attack them. Having voluntarily withdrawn from the containment treaty, he finds himself with zero leverage or trust with the Iranians. The Iranians have called his bluff by shooting down his drone without retaliation. I predict the Iranians will restart their uranium enrichment programme very shortly and I expect the US to be able to do nothing about it beyond threats and sanctions which are pretty much maxed out anyway.
This has been a humongous blunder by Trump and the US, and the Iranians will take full advantage of it.

Yeah I stand by my previous post. 2 to 3 weeks of Iran are standing by themselves. Tops.