It Really isn't De Jong! And my Dynamic Passing Theory :)

Dax777

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21,565
I think the effect of De Jong on our woes has been overstated of late.

True, some players reduce our ability to pass the ball around quickly and seamlessly more than others. I'd call this our team's Dynamic Passing Efficiency or DPE for short. The theory goes like this: the more players who are less versed in the art of dynamic passing, the harder it is for us to keep sustained possession, create consistent chances, and score goals to win game. This inability to create chances, then emboldens the opposition into attacking us, and also frustrates our players, and leads to attempts at going it alone or forcing plays. All these factors then add to a lower chance of success.

Now many will disagree, and others might have different views, but here are the list of players who I believe are not very consistent at either moving the ball or themselves around the field quickly, creatively and instinctively. All qualities necessary for a higher DPE: Joe, Micah, Clichy, Kolarov, Lescott, Kolo, De Jong, Milner, AJ, Dzeko. and to a lesser extent, Balotelli. However, they all bring certain qualities we also need, so often we have to give up a little of our DPE to add other necessary qualities. Please do not get this wrong, these are all fantastic players, I am just reviewing the effects they have on one key aspect of our game: Improving DPE.

So for example, Joe is just a phenomenal saver of "certain-to-be-goals-had-it-been-most-other-keepers-in-the-league" shots. And so we value that quality over his few poor punts that are detrimental to our DPE. Also, Micah has an incredible mix of Size, Strength, Speed, Athleticism and drive that creates havoc. That too is something that adds so much to our game than his average DPE score detracts from the overall DPE. You can do this for all the players mentioned in the list above. Milner's hustle, Balo's magic, Lescott ariel excellence, De Jong's tackling e.t.c.

However this doesn't change the fact that the more of the players in the list above that start toghether in a game, the lower our overall DPE is, and the harder is it to hold consistent possesion and create scoring chances. And the lower our DPE gets, the more toothless our offense is and invariably the more burdened our defense becomes.

So having De Jong on the team is not necessarily the problem, but rather the overall detriment in our DPE as the number of players on that list above grows is the problem.

Simply looking at the list, it is obvious we are bound to start at least 4 players who don't increase our DPE: Joe, Lescott, Micah, and one of Clichy/Kolarov. The question then is this: Can we afford to make that # 5, 6 or 7? The more players on that list that start toghether, the poorer our overall ability to control the game and create chances.

Truth be told, If we had say a Zidane and a Ronaldinho in their prime, and say a formation like this

.....................Hart................
Micah..Komp...Lescott...Kolarov
.........De Jong......Yaya............
..................Zidane.................
.........Silva................Ronaldihno..
...................Dzeko.....................

It wouldn't matter that we were starting 6 players who had a low DPE ratings, because Zizou and Dihno adds so much more that they'd cover the difference. In such a team, De Jong might actually become the first name on our team sheet. Coz then his excellent tackling skills, and heading skills and concerns for defense will become highlighted and his average DPE becomes less relevant as, Zizou, and Dihno added to the other 3 of SIlva , Yaya, and Komany will more than make up for the detrimental DPE values of the other 6.

But when you don't have players of that calibre on a passing team, you simply have to make sure you keep a high enough number of players who improve the DPE values on the field.

This in my opinion is the problem we have of late, and not necessarily just De Jong!
 

Feed-The-Goat

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R.I.P Sam & Sue. You both are going to be missed.
I love our Nige, and i dont like the way he gets slated all the time when things go wrong, or we dont score. I see it all the time, get him off, hes slowing the play down etc etc.

He aint Messi ffs, hes there to protect the back 4, win the ball back and pass it to the creative players, whether they be behind him, infront to the side etc.

He even said so in a interview ages ago, i win the ball and give it to the creative players.

He tries, and when he does people still whinge. Still a vital player for us, and doesnt deserve the stick hes getting.
 

Dax777

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21,565
Feed-The-Goat said:
I love our Nige, and i dont like the way he gets slated all the time when things go wrong, or we dont score. I see it all the time, get him off, hes slowing the play down etc etc.

He aint Messi ffs, hes there to protect the back 4, win the ball back and pass it to the creative players, whether they be behind him, infront to the side etc.

He even said so in a interview ages ago, i win the ball and give it to the creative players.

He tries, and when he does people still whinge. Still a vital player for us, and doesnt deserve the stick hes getting.
And your thoughts on the theory?
 

Feed-The-Goat

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Joined
20 Oct 2008
Messages
13,297
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R.I.P Sam & Sue. You both are going to be missed.
Dax777 said:
Feed-The-Goat said:
I love our Nige, and i dont like the way he gets slated all the time when things go wrong, or we dont score. I see it all the time, get him off, hes slowing the play down etc etc.

He aint Messi ffs, hes there to protect the back 4, win the ball back and pass it to the creative players, whether they be behind him, infront to the side etc.

He even said so in a interview ages ago, i win the ball and give it to the creative players.

He tries, and when he does people still whinge. Still a vital player for us, and doesnt deserve the stick hes getting.
And your thoughts on the theory?
He isnt a dynamic passer no, he can pick the odd very good pass out, look back to last season for his over the top ball, perfectly weighted for tevez to score (i forget who against) but he has his qualities that are needed, gettin stuck in, being ruthless, he reads the game so so well, his vision is amazing. Every player has their off days and Nige has. Deploying Nige to play with the more creative players or ones with the better DPE rating as you call it, has happened alot and we have won comfortably. You are right in my eyes, he does need the creative spark around him.
 

Dax777

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21,565
Jonathan1979 said:
Where does that Dinho play and how much should he cost?
Anyone scouted that Zidane yet?
See you don't get the point. You can switch them for Xavi and Iniesta. or Mata and Modric. or Messi and Fabregas. The point being, players who increase your overall DPE drastically (a theory), can make up for having more players who don't but have other qualities in a starting lineup that cherishes possession.
 

carlos tevez is a blue

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Joined
25 Nov 2010
Messages
16,121
Dax777 said:
I think the effect of De Jong on our woes has been overstated of late.

True, some players reduce our ability to pass the ball around quickly and seamlessly more than others. I'd call this our team's Dynamic Passing Efficiency or DPE for short. The theory goes like this: the more players who are less versed in the art of dynamic passing, the harder it is for us to keep sustained possession, create consistent chances, and score goals to win game. This inability to create chances, then emboldens the opposition into attacking us, and also frustrates our players, and leads to attempts at going it alone or forcing plays. All these factors then add to a lower chance of success.

Now many will disagree, and others might have different views, but here are the list of players who I believe are not very consistent at either moving the ball or themselves around the field quickly, creatively and instinctively. All qualities necessary for a higher DPE: Joe, Micah, Clichy, Kolarov, Lescott, Kolo, De Jong, Milner, AJ, Dzeko. and to a lesser extent, Balotelli. However, they all bring certain qualities we also need, so often we have to give up a little of our DPE to add other necessary qualities. Please do not get this wrong, these are all fantastic players, I am just reviewing the effects they have on one key aspect of our game: Improving DPE.

So for example, Joe is just a phenomenal saver of "certain-to-be-goals-had-it-been-most-other-keepers-in-the-league" shots. And so we value that quality over his few poor punts that are detrimental to our DPE. Also, Micah has an incredible mix of Size, Strength, Speed, Athleticism and drive that creates havoc. That too is something that adds so much to our game than his average DPE score detracts from the overall DPE. You can do this for all the players mentioned in the list above. Milner's hustle, Balo's magic, Lescott ariel excellence, De Jong's tackling e.t.c.

However this doesn't change the fact that the more of the players in the list above that start toghether in a game, the lower our overall DPE is, and the harder is it to hold consistent possesion and create scoring chances. And the lower our DPE gets, the more toothless our offense is and invariably the more burdened our defense becomes.

So having De Jong on the team is not necessarily the problem, but rather the overall detriment in our DPE as the number of players on that list above grows is the problem.

Simply looking at the list, it is obvious we are bound to start at least 4 players who don't increase our DPE: Joe, Lescott, Micah, and one of Clichy/Kolarov. The question then is this: Can we afford to make that # 5, 6 or 7? The more players on that list that start toghether, the poorer our overall ability to control the game and create chances.

Truth be told, If we had say a Zidane and a Ronaldinho in their prime, and say a formation like this

.....................Hart................
Micah..Komp...Lescott...Kolarov
.........De Jong......Yaya............
..................Zidane.................
.........Silva................Ronaldihno..
...................Dzeko.....................

It wouldn't matter that we were starting 6 players who had a low DPE ratings, because Zizou and Dihno adds so much more that they'd cover the difference. In such a team, De Jong might actually become the first name on our team sheet. Coz then his excellent tackling skills, and heading skills and concerns for defense will become highlighted and his average DPE becomes less relevant as, Zizou, and Dihno added to the other 3 of SIlva , Yaya, and Komany will more than make up for the detrimental DPE values of the other 6.

But when you don't have players of that calibre on a passing team, you simply have to make sure you keep a high enough number of players who improve the DPE values on the field.

This in my opinion is the problem we have of late, and not necessarily just De Jong!


Is this a maths question?
 

Dax777

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Joined
20 Dec 2010
Messages
21,565
prairiemoon said:
Excellent thread.



Is Pizarro's DPE high enough to compensate for the others?
Yes! I think so. As you can see, he is not on the list.

Barry, Pizzaro, Yaya, Silva, Nasri, Aguero, Kompany, Savic, Owen, Zab, and Tevez all have medium to high DPE's that either keep the status quo or increase overall cohesion.
 

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