Keir Starmer

[SkyBlueFlux]

An underwhelming night for Starmer, an estimated 0.1% vote increase.

If the analysis shows the rise of the Greens was because of the support of the disaffected left that spells problems for Labour. Elsewhere is seems the "get the tory out" vote meant tactical voting for the Lib Dems who had a great night then the chance of a Labour majority at the next election is slim at best.

Could the Green left become the "UKIP" of the left and put pressure on Starmer to halt his centrist charge.

Interesting times indeed.

Labour’s vote share increased 7% on the 2019 locals when these same set of seats were up for election under Corbyn.

You can’t compare this year to last year’s locals vote share because it’s completely apples and pears. I see Curtice doing this and I have great respect for him but honestly he simply cannot be making these comparisons, it’s incredibly disingenuous. You’re comparing the Home Counties and South West voting this year (where Labour have always done poorly) to London, the North West and Wales voting last year where Labour always do very well.

For Labour to have increased their vote share from last year with this set of seats is almost unheard of - history shows when you add London, Wales and the rest of the North West in the mix they’d be on for 40%+ at a general election at a canter.

Labour have never gotten a vote share above 37% for England in this cycle since the councils were structured in this pattern - not even Blair in 1999 or 2003. Corbyn got 28%, Miliband in the 2015 joint general-local election only got 29% for these seats.

I’m no fan of Starmer but these are just facts. Labour will easily win an election based on these numbers, they will not at all be worried.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Done well from such a low position, aided by an utterly shite government.

 

[Rascal]

Labour’s vote share increased 7% on the 2019 locals when these same set of seats were up for election under Corbyn.

You can’t compare this year to last year’s locals vote share because it’s completely apples and pears. I see Curtice doing this and I have great respect for him but honestly he simply cannot be making these comparisons, it’s incredibly disingenuous. You’re comparing the Home Counties and South West voting this year (where Labour have always done poorly) to London, the North West and Wales voting last year where Labour always do very well.

For Labour to have increased their vote share from last year with this set of seats is almost unheard of - history shows when you add London, Wales and the rest of the North West in the mix they’d be on for 40%+ at a general election at a canter.

Labour have never gotten a vote share above 37% for England in this cycle since the councils were structured in this pattern - not even Blair in 1999 or 2003. Corbyn got 28%, Miliband in the 2015 joint general-local election only got 29% for these seats.

I’m no fan of Starmer but these are just facts. Labour will easily win an election based on these numbers, they will not at all be worried.

Even still its predicted Labour will be 28 seats short of a majority at the next GE.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I don't see the issue with ID - what's wrong with confirming your name/address to prevent any chance of fraud?

I get that some haven't got ID, but i would have thought nowadays it just should be a legal requirement.

But it isn’t a legal requirement. In fact, when Blair introduced it, Johnson said he’d eat it if it was ever forced upon him, the Tories thought it was an affront to ‘human rights’ (which is quite funny, given where we are now) and the coalition government scrapped it.
If you’re going to insist on ID cards to vote, then introduce them as things you must have. Once you’ve rolled that out, then link it to voting but, as ever with these charlatans in charge, it’s all done in the wrong order and to grab headlines.

 

[metalblue]

But it isn’t a legal requirement. In fact, when Blair introduced it, Johnson said he’d eat it if it was ever forced upon him, the Tories thought it was an affront to ‘human rights’ (which is quite funny, given where we are now) and the coalition government scrapped it.
If you’re going to insist on ID cards to vote, then introduce them as things you must have. Once you’ve rolled that out, then link it to voting but, as ever with these charlatans in charge, it’s all done in the wrong order and to grab headlines.

TBF he also thinks VAR is a good idea. For someone so wholeheartedly positive about accepting whatever shit is thrown his way the powers that be I find it odd he’s a self confessed leftie - although it would explain why he likes a Labour Party on the right of centre. Either that or his a WUM who likes to take a contrarian position and then dies on that hill just for the shits and giggles.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

TBF he also thinks VAR is a good idea. For someone so wholeheartedly positive about accepting whatever shit is thrown his way the powers that be I find it odd he’s a self confessed leftie - although it would explain why he likes a Labour Party on the right of centre. Either that or his a WUM who likes to take a contrarian position and then dies on that hill just for the shits and giggles.

He also supported the Rwanda plan.

He's not really a left winger in any real sense.

He's the millenial centrist dad.

 

[bluenova]

Even still its predicted Labour will be 28 seats short of a majority at the next GE.

It's really tricky to predict at the moment.

Based on the last couple of elections, Labour would need upwards of a 10% lead to get a majority, but that kind of bias can disappear quickly if the Tories are squeezed from all sides.

Basing anything on locals is different - The Lib Dems have many more chances to win locally, and as the main polling experts have said, Labour could easily get 10% extra from the Lib Dems in a GE.

It's also looking like Starmer has convinced most Lib Dems about Labour, which means what we saw on Thursday, where Labour decimated the Lib Dems in Labour/Tory marginals, and Lib Dems did the same in Tory/Lib Dem marginals, could see the Tories struggling everywhere.

Finally, Scotland may well be up for grabs again. Labour has been gradually moving ahead of the Tories in Scotland, but it's only in the last month that the SNP has imploded, and it's possible Labour could go into the next GE challenging for half the seats. If anti-SNP tactical voting kicks in, then that could be a game changer.

 

[Gabriel]

Even still its predicted Labour will be 28 seats short of a majority at the next GE.

That should be a concern for Labour because I suspect the Conservatives will be able to narrow the gap, slightly, in the intervening time before the next General Election.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Even still its predicted Labour will be 28 seats short of a majority at the next GE.

I’m not convinced, @bluenova made some good points. Using local elections to predict national elections is fraught with challenges. The last time Curtice tried to do this kind of seat projection in 2019 he underestimated Tories and Labour vote shares by nearly 20 ppts combined and overestimated LibDems and UKIP by the same amount.

The LibDems will not get 20% of the vote at the general election so any seat projection based on that number like the Sky and BBC ones being banded around are of limited value. Curtice even said this himself on Politics Live, he only does these seat projections because he’s asked to not because they’re reliable.

The key question is - in a make or break election how much of that 30% LibDem+Green vote flops to the Tories and how much goes Labour’s way. That is nearly impossible to know. People might assume they fall Labour’s way but NIMBYism around housing has led to a lot of Tories voting Green this time round.

I think the only thing we can say for sure is that given the huge amounts of tactical voting, these vote shares for both Tories and Labour are probably the minimum they can expect to see at an election.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Labour’s vote share increased 7% on the 2019 locals when these same set of seats were up for election under Corbyn.

You can’t compare this year to last year’s locals vote share because it’s completely apples and pears. I see Curtice doing this and I have great respect for him but honestly he simply cannot be making these comparisons, it’s incredibly disingenuous. You’re comparing the Home Counties and South West voting this year (where Labour have always done poorly) to London, the North West and Wales voting last year where Labour always do very well.

For Labour to have increased their vote share from last year with this set of seats is almost unheard of - history shows when you add London, Wales and the rest of the North West in the mix they’d be on for 40%+ at a general election at a canter.

Labour have never gotten a vote share above 37% for England in this cycle since the councils were structured in this pattern - not even Blair in 1999 or 2003. Corbyn got 28%, Miliband in the 2015 joint general-local election only got 29% for these seats.

I’m no fan of Starmer but these are just facts. Labour will easily win an election based on these numbers, they will not at all be worried.

He has to learn from Kinnock.

He thought he'd pissed the GE and was so cocky the voters went Tory to slap him down.

I still expect a minority Tory victory or a hung parliament where the yellow Tories will rescue their blue colleagues.