Local Elections 2023

[SkyBlueFlux]

Thought this might warrant its own thread given two thirds of the country will be going to the polling stations tomorrow. Early indications are that (somewhat unsurprisingly) the Tories are going to sustain losses, it’s more a question of the scale of those losses.



Survation’s final poll before the election suggests a 17 point swing away from Tories to Lab/Lib/Green. One really important thing to note is that this is compared to the 2019 Locals, the last set of elections overseen by May before she was booted from office in which they lost something like 1,300 councillors. Therefore this comparison is against the Conservatives’ low watermark prior to Boris’ bounce back at the General in Dec 2019.

If they were to come out with only 23% as projected here, that would be a historic low. I’ve gone back as far as 1979 and Tories have never done that badly in a set of local elections. The last time an incumbent government did that badly was Labour in the aftermath of the GFC in 2009 (they got 22%). The local election immediately prior to Labour spending 13 years (and counting) out of power.

Obviously, this is just one survey so we will see how it bears out in reality.

 

[staffsblue]

I'm not sure about others, but I vote very differently in local elections compared to general elections.
My vote was (I've already voted by postal ballot) influenced by local issues only, and my vote went to the incumbent who is the only one of the candidates to bother to knock on your door and ask your opinions and concerns.
And no, he's not a Tory!

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I'm not sure about others, but I vote very differently in local elections compared to general elections.
My vote was (I've already voted by postal ballot) influenced by local issues only, and my vote went to the incumbent who is the only one of the candidates to bother to knock on your door and ask your opinions and concerns.
And no, he's not a Tory!

I’m exactly the same. I vote Green in my ward. Something I wouldn’t do at a General. And not just because it’s a wasted vote but because I disagree with Green policies at a national level (e.g. their stance on nuclear power) but I like a lot of their initiatives at the local scale and they have a good chance of winning here.

That said, there will always be a chunk that vote down party lines. I have relatives who would vote Tory even if they put the ghost of Pol Pot up for election as their local councillor.

Local elections are an opportunity for a protest vote but are often a good way of polling general sentiment in the big party’s own bases.

 

[staffsblue]

I’m exactly the same. I vote Green in my ward. Something I wouldn’t do at a General. And not just because it’s a wasted vote but because I disagree with Green policies at a national level (e.g. their stance on nuclear power) but I like a lot of their initiatives at the local scale and they have a good chance of winning here.

That said, there will always be a chunk that vote down party lines. I have relatives who would vote Tory even if they put the ghost of Pol Pot up for election as their local councillor.

Local elections are an opportunity for a protest vote but are often a good way of polling general sentiment in the big party’s own bases.

Yes, I voted Green too along similar lines, although would never vote for them in a GE as I don't agree with their anti HS2 stance.

 

[Scottyboi]

Yes, I voted Green too along similar lines, although would never vote for them in a GE as I don't agree with their anti HS2 stance.

HS2 is a shitshow thank fuck it has been shelved for now.

 

[staffsblue]

HS2 is a shitshow thank fuck it has been shelved for now.

The only shitshow is how it has been handled by the current government.
A high speed rail network should have been built across the whole of the country 40 years ago when the rest of Europe were establishing their networks

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

The only shitshow is how it has been handled by the current government.
A high speed rail network should have been built across the whole of the country 40 years ago when the rest of Europe were establishing their networks

Why on earth would we do that ? Instead we gave huge tax breaks to corporations ....

 

[Gabriel]

One thing to keep an eye on will be turn out. I suspect that it will be low, and they’ll all be trying to spin it their way on Friday, from Voter ID to Coronation preparations, but if it’s incredibly low, as I fear, it could be a sign of huge apathy amongst the electorate.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Get Tories Out!

 

[bluethrunthru]

I am going LD for this one. Two reasons - first Fuck the Tories and second in all fairness we have had loads of leafleting / door stepping / stopping in the street to discuss things by the local LD candidate - the other two main parties have been in-fucking-visible