Maybe he isn’t being prosecuted because he hasn’t done anything illegal? If he had he would be facing criminal prosecution. Then he would be getting 4 years or more.
The alternative to this narrative is that the HMRC is corrupt to the core and can be brought off, for that you’d need some actual evidence.
I think he’s probably been dishonest. And if he has, he’s guilty of fraud, as it’s undeniably a false representation and he made a gain. If he was convicted after a trial he’s be looking at 6-8 years given the sums involved, depending on how the court viewed his culpability. Would a breach of trust apply, given his position? Arguably not; that’s normally reserved (for example) for carers who rip off OAPs.
Not sure how the offer and payment of the penalty would hamper any private prosecution against Zahawi on an abuse of process basis, but if I had the time and the resources this is something I’d consider. We can all forget or overlook things, and make mistakes, even fundamental ones, but a government minister should be held to a higher standard because the test for dishonesty will be more easily met by them, especially with the sum involved. It certainly deserves to be put to a jury and for them to be required to ask if was this an honest mistake, given it was around £3 million, his experience in business, the resources of professional advice that were at his disposal, and the ancillary steps that were taken in relation to the dispersal of the proceeds. All these factors make an honest mistake less likely.
It seems to me, on the face of it, that he has as much of a case to answer as the woman who was sentenced for benefit fraud that was posted about earlier. I think, on the balance of probability, that he was dishonest, and that a jury may conclude the same to the higher, criminal standard of proof of being sure, once they had heard the evidence. It’s certainly in the public interest to prosecute if the evidence is there. Suspect someone at HMRC lost their bottle. Wonder whether the advice of counsel was sought, or whether the decision was made internally. The answer to that question will almost certainly be exempt from any FOI request, lamentably.