Newcastle United (A) - Sat 13th Jan, 17:30 | PL | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction

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shemnel said:
Ref stats are inherently very biased, certain refs take charge of certain levels of game, therefore you can have really high or mediocre % win rates because your opposition is always of a banded standard (e.g. we have a 100% win rate with Lee Mason, cos he refs dross). Add to that the ref isn't always in charge of game changing decisions these days - VAR is stepping in (those combinations should be taken into account) - plus not all refs have reffed us while we've got better and better under various managers, then you've got a recipe for a pretty meaningless stat unless you can get right into the details.

While Kavanagh has reffed us 9 times ever (all with Pep in charge), he has reffed us 8 times in the league, and we've never lost - 5 wins and 3 draws. The draws were L'pool at home (this season), United away (about 3 years ago) and Newcastle away (!) (about 4 years ago), quite tough games.

You could begin to make a case that we should have beaten Liverpool, that's a VAR issue noted above, but at Newcastle away in 2019 we were sloppy and lethargic. The fact he did the Newcastle defeat in the League Cup away earlier this season is interesting!! - again you could argue we crumbled in the 2nd half in that one too.

if we play properly and with the control we're finding again, the ref should be immaterial. It's the counters we allow, with a finisher like Isak, that we really need to keep an eye on.
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Some valid comments. The number of our games controlled by him has been less than other referees. Kavanagh has only been a top flight ref since 2017, so all seasons except one we will have been PL champions. A top ref should be controlling VAR, (I know most don't). I agree about Isak and Newcastle counters.
 
Bluewars said:
No word on Akanji then??? Or does he not matter??
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I think he’s been in training pal, and as Pep didn’t mention him I assume he is fit and available for selection. Not sure who said he doesn’t count - the other posters were merely advising what Pep had said, and Pep clearly thinks that Akanji matters
 
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