Right. I have done my maths, drawn up my logorithm tables, investigated my probabilities and the results are in.
So the scores on the doors for me are - (assuming we lose no more than 4)
W L D Pts Total
2 3 5 11 61 Surley the minimum we can expect
2 2 6 12 62
3 4 3 12 62
3 3 4 13 63
3 2 5 14 64
3 1 6 15 65
4 4 2 14 64
4 3 3 15 65
4 2 4 16 66
4 1 5 17 67
5 4 1 16 66
5 3 2 17 67
5 2 3 18 68 - my head says this
5 1 4 19 69
6 4 0 18 68
6 3 1 19 69
6 2 2 20 70 - although my heart says this on
6 1 3 21 71
7 2 1 22 72
7 1 2 22 73
Given our propensity to Draw more than we lose and win slighty more than we draw and given we have six home games. I think we will lose 2 more games... Arsenal being one and take your pick for another.
My money is on 68 points but will it be enough. Probably if we beat both Spurs and Villa I think. If its not us may money is on Villa as they have easier matches.
So the scores on the doors for me are - (assuming we lose no more than 4)
W L D Pts Total
2 3 5 11 61 Surley the minimum we can expect
2 2 6 12 62
3 4 3 12 62
3 3 4 13 63
3 2 5 14 64
3 1 6 15 65
4 4 2 14 64
4 3 3 15 65
4 2 4 16 66
4 1 5 17 67
5 4 1 16 66
5 3 2 17 67
5 2 3 18 68 - my head says this
5 1 4 19 69
6 4 0 18 68
6 3 1 19 69
6 2 2 20 70 - although my heart says this on
6 1 3 21 71
7 2 1 22 72
7 1 2 22 73
Given our propensity to Draw more than we lose and win slighty more than we draw and given we have six home games. I think we will lose 2 more games... Arsenal being one and take your pick for another.
My money is on 68 points but will it be enough. Probably if we beat both Spurs and Villa I think. If its not us may money is on Villa as they have easier matches.