Take out the big wins which Pawson cant realistically stop and it all falls apart. Mason seems awful but i'm not 100% convinced. The only one i'd really bet against City with is Taylor (not that I can bring myself to do it..!). The data sample with Pawson is really compelling but I think more evidence is needed.
Tight games under Pawson since 2011 - W2-1, 1-1 (L2-1 AET), L1-0, 2-2,0-0,0-0. May just be random chance but 1 win out of 6 tight games.....
Another good sign is to look at the league tables using results from the games the referee has been in charge of. The data is all there. I work out the points each team would have and then adjust for a 38 game season. So if a referee has had 20 games for one team, I work out their points from those games, multiply by 38 and divide by the number of games (ie 20). This is not an exact science but over several seasons shows some interesting and alarming stats.
First we need a reference point, so lets work out the average points per season for the teams over the last 6 years.
City 82
Chelsea 75
Utd 75
Arsenal 72
Spurs 72
Liverpool 67
So one team is clearly well ahead over that period and therefore over a 6 year sample we'd expect the games witheach of our referees under study to reflect that with some variance... or not as it happens..
Based on Pawson's games in this period the table would be :
Utd 90!!!! (+15)
Liverpool 74 (+7)
City 73 (-9)
Alarm bells start to ring especially as ALL OF THOSE GAMES ARE POST TAGGART when they have been awful!!!!!. It may just be random chance of course and it's not based on lots of games. Lets have a look at Taylor...
Utd 85 (+10pts)
Arsenal 81 (+9)
Liverpool 75 (+8)
City 72 (-10)
Starting to see a pattern yet??
Next let's look at Mason's league table
Chelsea 98 (+23)
Arsenal 85 (+13)
Utd 81 (+6)
Spurs 76 (+4)
City 73 (-12)
Doesn't look like a rag supporter despite our fears about him. City well below expected levels though. This could be an anomaly though (see below)
Of course there was a massive change in 2013 when Taggart retired so Utd's numbers may have been skewed by his two years in our study. So looking at the tables since Taggart, the average points are as follows:
City 82
Chelsea 77
Arsenal 73
Liverpool 72
Spurs 72
Utd 70
Pawson in these 5 seasons:
Utd 90!! (+20!!!)
Liverpool 74 (+2)
City 73 (-9)
Taylor
Utd 81 (+9)
Liverpool 78 (+6)
Arsenal 76 (+3)
City 65 (-17)
Mason
City 101
Chelsea 95
Arsenal 88
Utd 76
Suggests that in recent years, despite appearances Mason maybe isn't as awful as we think, but Taylor and Pawson just look like rag sympathisers....
The above is not actually 100% accurate as the referee based tables include cup games whereas the reference table are based on league points. To be really accurate I should have looked up all cup games for the teams and added to the reference data but I didn't have time.