Gareth Barry Conlon
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 5 Sep 2014
- Messages
- 14,729
Agree with all that.I think the Tories have better internal discipline than Labour. That is they don't wash their dirty linen in public. This does not mean they are united - far from it.
The 'One-Nation' Tory MPs exist in large numbers but are not (generally) gobby. They go along with most stuff but have red lines, of which leaving the ECHR is one. They will only kick off if a red line is crossed or threatened. And a lot of their kicking-off is done behind closed doors.
What will be interesting is what the GE does to the political balance of the parliamentary party. I have absolutely no idea about this, I think it's anyone's guess. But after their defeat, there will be a struggle for the future. If some loopy RW fruitloop gets to be the leader (quite possible) they could end up in opposition for a long time. If you recall, it was only when the relatively moderate Cameron became leader that they won power, and even that was in peculiar circumstances. Had the 2008 international crisis not happened, they might not have won even with him.
The tory party is generally more moderate MPs although following BJ a bigger and more vocal loony element. The average tory voter is more one nation but the membership has become radicalised with brexit and the immigration hysteria that it was based on. The establishment used to avoid giving the members a vote on the leader. But Truss demonstrated you could campaign on a platform of right wing fantasy and breeze through.
The mix of MPs will be radically different following the next election but the membership won't change. Therefore the next leader will likely be a loony.