We need to beat Wales. I wouldn't fancy going into that last game against Slovakia needing to win if they still need a point to be sure of going through and i can see Wales resting the likes of Bale against Russia if they're already through.
Those stats are interesting. Russians had two thirds possession of the ball and committed a third less of the fouls, hence the generally accepted notion that if you have the ball you get fouled and don't end up fouling. Compare that to a well-known team from Beswick who regularly have two thirds possession and yet seem to kick the opposition off the park.
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