Russian invasion of Ukraine

I hope you are right. But I believe a softer line will be taken due to gas reserves and geographic proximity even if Putin is still around.

It will take a couple of years for alternative gas sources to be set up, it’s already underway across Europe.

After that there’s no incentive to go back to Russia.
 
Also, and yes, I appreciate the logistics and lack of infrastructure, we (Europe) cannot keep paying for Russian energy - assuming we are still paying, given the demand to pay in Roubles.
Even though the UK overall isn't dependent on Russian fossil fuels, nearly a fifth of our diesel is Russian and we are set to continue importing it until December
 
The fight in Donbas will be much harder.
Not so sure.
A battle hardened Ukrainian army armed with all the latest western weapons and with control of the skies up against Russian forces that have been struggling with logistics and morale, and with inferior equipment might not be as difficult as we would have thought a month ago. One thing for sure is that it will be very costly in civilian lives because war crimes seem to be the only thing that the Russians excel in.
 
You can't just throw material at the Ukrainian army. The fancy stuff need months if not years in some cases to train with.
 
Bombing has started in odessa , the russian just cant take and hold that and the sea or the rest of ukraine will be land locked and lose their ability to do a lot of trade
 
It will take a couple of years for alternative gas sources to be set up, it’s already underway across Europe.

After that there’s no incentive to go back to Russia.
Like Putin a sucessor will be seen as a way of bring Russia back into the fold and he will be treated in exactly the same way as Putin was treated, even though they will possibly be worse.
The West, seemingly, does not learn from history.
China is no different. Our corporation's and companies need to have 2 or 3 alternate locations abroad to manufacture their products before it is too late. China has delayed it's invasion of Taiwan by at least 4 years according to Taiwan intellegence due to the shortcomings of the Russian invasion.
Authoritarian regimes should be avoided like the plague.
 
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