Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
UKRAINE UPDATE 13-14 DECEMBER
The main concerns over Avdivka - at least for now - seem to be abating.
Russian forces in the central industrial zone tried to seize the forest just to its north.
Russian assaults spiked and yet the Russian forces were completely eliminated by the capable Ukrainian 110th Brigade and the Border Troops.
This so called ‘active defence’ - an excuse for offensive failure on the Russians part, has been catastrophic for the army. At least 30,000 dead troops for very little relative gain may mean nothing to the government in general, but it’s been a catastrophic loss of what morale remained.
Regrettably the Russians have sliced off quite a tranche of territory in front of Bakhmut, but apparently at terrible loss. Most of the land taken in the summer around Berkhivka has been retaken by the enemy. The Russians took the Khromove heights and now look to have their sights set on Chasiv Yar. It’s a long way off yet and it’s heavily defended, surrounded by very challenging terrain.
The Russians have really pushed back hard from the Kopani towards Robotyne - the whole salient looks in increasing danger as I’ve long predicted . It’s simply not easy to defend or big enough to justify heavy losses to keep. Despite the huge effort expended to take it.
The Krynky front seems stable with Russians having called off their infantry attacks on the scale they were. Ukraine seems to have expanded the bridgehead a little, but it’s a tough environment.
Russian losses have now reached the point where they have apparently lost 90% of the troops who originally entered combat operations in February 2022. In other words, just 1 in 10 of the professional army that went to war is left alive. Losses like that haven’t been experienced since 1914-1917.
Russia entered a new era of depravity and illegality yesterday, as Ukrainian drones spotted Russian troops using what appears to be prisoners of war as human shields to advance down a tree line. Clearly visible without combat gear and their hands tied, Russian soldiers pushed and shoved them forward at gunpoint as they approach an assumed Ukrainian trench where they throw grenades. Ukraine didn’t provide a location for the video but there’s no doubt about what’s happening in it.
Russia launched ten ballistic missiles at Kyiv yesterday - with barely 2-4 minutes warning there was no time for evacuations to shelters. Ukrainians woke up to Patriots destroying all ten - but wreckage again caused damage and injured sixty. It’s looking like these may be Iranian made short range ballistic missiles launched from closer to the border. This needs confirming.
There has been a big move in the US with the Senate extending its stay to the 21st rather than the 15th. Senator Murphy is no longer in charge of negotiations with the republicans and it looks like some sort of compromise may be reached to get an aid bill passed in the the senate. The House is another matter but if one side gets it done the pressure is on. As one British commentator said, ‘the Republicans haven’t reached the point where they want the Russians to win’.
Meanwhile the new Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk, is demanding Europe gets off its backside and pushes key economic levers to get arms industries working together and not letting Russia think its ‘war track’ economy can beat a common desire of The West to prevail.
Overall while Ukraine has retreated in many areas to better defend its forces, the land lost has been generally minimal. Avdivka lives to fight another day.
The front north of Bakhmut however is an area almost twice that of the areas regained in the south.
There’s growing evidence the Russians have every intention to push Ukraine from the Robotyne salient.
I have to be honest and say you really can’t expect them not to try to do this. It’s a lose-lose for Ukraine. Defending it will be costly, (as taking it back will be for the Russians), but the propaganda value is too much of a lure for them. CONTINUES
UKRAINE UPDATE 13-14 DECEMBER
The main concerns over Avdivka - at least for now - seem to be abating.
Russian forces in the central industrial zone tried to seize the forest just to its north.
Russian assaults spiked and yet the Russian forces were completely eliminated by the capable Ukrainian 110th Brigade and the Border Troops.
This so called ‘active defence’ - an excuse for offensive failure on the Russians part, has been catastrophic for the army. At least 30,000 dead troops for very little relative gain may mean nothing to the government in general, but it’s been a catastrophic loss of what morale remained.
Regrettably the Russians have sliced off quite a tranche of territory in front of Bakhmut, but apparently at terrible loss. Most of the land taken in the summer around Berkhivka has been retaken by the enemy. The Russians took the Khromove heights and now look to have their sights set on Chasiv Yar. It’s a long way off yet and it’s heavily defended, surrounded by very challenging terrain.
The Russians have really pushed back hard from the Kopani towards Robotyne - the whole salient looks in increasing danger as I’ve long predicted . It’s simply not easy to defend or big enough to justify heavy losses to keep. Despite the huge effort expended to take it.
The Krynky front seems stable with Russians having called off their infantry attacks on the scale they were. Ukraine seems to have expanded the bridgehead a little, but it’s a tough environment.
Russian losses have now reached the point where they have apparently lost 90% of the troops who originally entered combat operations in February 2022. In other words, just 1 in 10 of the professional army that went to war is left alive. Losses like that haven’t been experienced since 1914-1917.
Russia entered a new era of depravity and illegality yesterday, as Ukrainian drones spotted Russian troops using what appears to be prisoners of war as human shields to advance down a tree line. Clearly visible without combat gear and their hands tied, Russian soldiers pushed and shoved them forward at gunpoint as they approach an assumed Ukrainian trench where they throw grenades. Ukraine didn’t provide a location for the video but there’s no doubt about what’s happening in it.
Russia launched ten ballistic missiles at Kyiv yesterday - with barely 2-4 minutes warning there was no time for evacuations to shelters. Ukrainians woke up to Patriots destroying all ten - but wreckage again caused damage and injured sixty. It’s looking like these may be Iranian made short range ballistic missiles launched from closer to the border. This needs confirming.
There has been a big move in the US with the Senate extending its stay to the 21st rather than the 15th. Senator Murphy is no longer in charge of negotiations with the republicans and it looks like some sort of compromise may be reached to get an aid bill passed in the the senate. The House is another matter but if one side gets it done the pressure is on. As one British commentator said, ‘the Republicans haven’t reached the point where they want the Russians to win’.
Meanwhile the new Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk, is demanding Europe gets off its backside and pushes key economic levers to get arms industries working together and not letting Russia think its ‘war track’ economy can beat a common desire of The West to prevail.
Overall while Ukraine has retreated in many areas to better defend its forces, the land lost has been generally minimal. Avdivka lives to fight another day.
The front north of Bakhmut however is an area almost twice that of the areas regained in the south.
There’s growing evidence the Russians have every intention to push Ukraine from the Robotyne salient.
I have to be honest and say you really can’t expect them not to try to do this. It’s a lose-lose for Ukraine. Defending it will be costly, (as taking it back will be for the Russians), but the propaganda value is too much of a lure for them. CONTINUES
