Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

NUKES IN BELARUS, FRENCH IN ODESA, LIBERATION FORCES IN RUSSIA

President Putin’s upcoming automated re-election has inspired a great deal of external tinkering. The liberation brigades once again are making a huge splash in the border zones, which the Russians are far from containing even though they eventually will force a withdrawal that we all know is already planned. The mayhem it causes while it’s happening is entirely the point of the operation.
France has approved the security agreement with Ukraine and is now seriously talking of sending troops to Odesa within a year. The point of this is to internationalise the port to allow grain exports to continue by sea without the relentless attacks by Russian drones - many nations - most of them in Africa depend on that grain and it’s about securing that export chain.
It also has another point. Moldovan politicians are either pro Russian or pro western and Russian interference in the country has been relentless.
This has been largely due to its previous interference and effective occupation of the slither of territory known as Transnistria. Their troops are still there, mostly garrisoning a huge weapons depot that sits right on the Ukraine border.
They have been stuck there since the war began unable to leave or be rotated. Moldovan opposition leaders have recently been to Moscow begging for help. There have even been rumours that Russia would mount an airborne assault on Moldova from Crimea - but that’s verging on the ludicrous - Moldova is under constant NATO AWACS surveillance and NATO air forces patrol very close by. And the Ukrainians would know and they wouldn’t stand by and let it happen.
Besides which the Russian VDV is not what it was! And the Air Force is hardly in a position to mount such an operation.
Putin’s growing frustrations over military failings to advance at the pace he expected, despite almost unlimited resources but also at huge cost, the stepping up of European leadership to the point where France especially is prepared to act it seems, has thrown him off balance. This was not expected.
Add to that the massive NATO exercise in Scandinavia and the Baltic, in the middle of which Sweden joins the NATO alliance having been neutral for over 200 years - all because of him and what he’s done - and the pressure has clearly gotten to him.
He faces a set of challenges he has never predicted. Europe has seen the light. And it’s not backing down despite the disinformation campaigns. If anything it’s in spite of them. Equal and opposite reactions come to mind.
So what does he do? He orders tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus in full view. More nuclear threats.
Because that’s all he has left.
Now don’t get me wrong, if pushed way too far he would use them. But he’s nowhere near at that point yet and he knows the consequences would be severe, if not crippling. Even the Chinese and certainly India would be racing for the exits. In many ways the threats over nuclear use exacerbate the facts over how weak Russian conventional forces outside of Ukraine are. Everything is tied up in this war, there’s nothing left to fight anyone except perhaps at sea.
Nuclear threats are a weakness, a
‘Tell’ that no poker player should give out so easily.
When you invade someone and get it wrong and you then dig in thinking time is on your side, you have to be ironclad in your resolve, making silly nuclear threats every other week shows you lack confidence. It shows that you think your enemies think you have become weak and you need to remind them you have a means of reaching them anywhere. Well they can reach you too. And don’t you forget it. Which is why your threats can be ignored. Nothing has happened to justify nuclear use, not even in Russian terms, though some undoubtedly think otherwise in the Kremlin’s darker depths.
Putin put himself in this position.
Putin can get himself out of it. If not, the collective west will do its best to assist him out of Ukraine’s land.
Because clearly that’s the only solution - his own failure will bring him down.
Click to expand...
I feel like Putin cant pull out now,Hes pretty much all in with a pair of 5s
 
mrcunny said:
I feel like Putin cant pull out now,Hes pretty much all in with a pair of 5s
Click to expand...

There’s a narrative that allows it, because he controls the narrative, and that is that he has crushed the Nazi uprising in Ukraine, he has saved the historical Russian peoples of eastern Ukraine and he has secured Crimea and the Black Sea so that America and their NATO allies can never threaten Russia from the south.

In fact, he can retreat all the way back to the pre-invasion “border” in Ukraine and even further IF HE WANTS, BECAUSE he controls the narrative!

But, he won’t unless forced.

“Who will force him and how?” Is the $64,000 Question!
 
Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

NUKES IN BELARUS, FRENCH IN ODESA, LIBERATION FORCES IN RUSSIA

President Putin’s upcoming automated re-election has inspired a great deal of external tinkering. The liberation brigades once again are making a huge splash in the border zones, which the Russians are far from containing even though they eventually will force a withdrawal that we all know is already planned. The mayhem it causes while it’s happening is entirely the point of the operation.
France has approved the security agreement with Ukraine and is now seriously talking of sending troops to Odesa within a year. The point of this is to internationalise the port to allow grain exports to continue by sea without the relentless attacks by Russian drones - many nations - most of them in Africa depend on that grain and it’s about securing that export chain.
It also has another point. Moldovan politicians are either pro Russian or pro western and Russian interference in the country has been relentless.
This has been largely due to its previous interference and effective occupation of the slither of territory known as Transnistria. Their troops are still there, mostly garrisoning a huge weapons depot that sits right on the Ukraine border.
They have been stuck there since the war began unable to leave or be rotated. Moldovan opposition leaders have recently been to Moscow begging for help. There have even been rumours that Russia would mount an airborne assault on Moldova from Crimea - but that’s verging on the ludicrous - Moldova is under constant NATO AWACS surveillance and NATO air forces patrol very close by. And the Ukrainians would know and they wouldn’t stand by and let it happen.
Besides which the Russian VDV is not what it was! And the Air Force is hardly in a position to mount such an operation.
Putin’s growing frustrations over military failings to advance at the pace he expected, despite almost unlimited resources but also at huge cost, the stepping up of European leadership to the point where France especially is prepared to act it seems, has thrown him off balance. This was not expected.
Add to that the massive NATO exercise in Scandinavia and the Baltic, in the middle of which Sweden joins the NATO alliance having been neutral for over 200 years - all because of him and what he’s done - and the pressure has clearly gotten to him.
He faces a set of challenges he has never predicted. Europe has seen the light. And it’s not backing down despite the disinformation campaigns. If anything it’s in spite of them. Equal and opposite reactions come to mind.
So what does he do? He orders tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus in full view. More nuclear threats.
Because that’s all he has left.
Now don’t get me wrong, if pushed way too far he would use them. But he’s nowhere near at that point yet and he knows the consequences would be severe, if not crippling. Even the Chinese and certainly India would be racing for the exits. In many ways the threats over nuclear use exacerbate the facts over how weak Russian conventional forces outside of Ukraine are. Everything is tied up in this war, there’s nothing left to fight anyone except perhaps at sea.
Nuclear threats are a weakness, a
‘Tell’ that no poker player should give out so easily.
When you invade someone and get it wrong and you then dig in thinking time is on your side, you have to be ironclad in your resolve, making silly nuclear threats every other week shows you lack confidence. It shows that you think your enemies think you have become weak and you need to remind them you have a means of reaching them anywhere. Well they can reach you too. And don’t you forget it. Which is why your threats can be ignored. Nothing has happened to justify nuclear use, not even in Russian terms, though some undoubtedly think otherwise in the Kremlin’s darker depths.
Putin put himself in this position.
Putin can get himself out of it. If not, the collective west will do its best to assist him out of Ukraine’s land.
Because clearly that’s the only solution - his own failure will bring him down.
Click to expand...
Thanks very inciteful.
 
Blue Maverick said:
Where does this all end
Click to expand...
I mean internationally at least it unfortunately almost certainly ends around the negotiating table with Donbas and/or Crimea given to Russia and Ukrainians spending the next few decades running an insurgent campaign ala Crimea 2014-2022 until it kicks off again.
 
Iassel said:
I mean internationally at least it unfortunately almost certainly ends around the negotiating table with Donbas and/or Crimea given to Russia and Ukrainians spending the next few decades running an insurgent campaign ala Crimea 2014-2022 until it kicks off again.
Click to expand...
Not sure Ukraine will surrender any territory this time around
 
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