Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
F-16 UPDATES
It’s entirely possible that six of the aircraft will begin operating in Ukraine this month. It will be a welcome addition. In the past three weeks Russian long range spy drones have managed to target and call in attacks on at least four Ukrainian aircraft on the ground, mostly in the regions behind the front lines. A pair of Su-27’s and another pair of Mig-29’s seem to have been lost.
Why they were there I don’t rightly fathom. The air bases in question were too close to the front and generally abandoned because of it.
The F-16 of course is riddled with contradictory benefits and concerns.
Where will they be based? How will they operate under constant Russian missile strikes? These are all but inevitable.
The only conceivable way around this is what I am told the now accepted as the only viable way to keep them flying: They will be serviced in neighbouring countries and armed in Ukraine before going on a mission. They will then be disarmed in Ukraine quickly and sent for maintenance outside of the country. Flying them to or from NATO on a direct mission would be seen as an act of war. I find it hard to see how this is even practical long term, but how is Ukraine to defend its bases without the air defences to do so? Let alone the hardened hangars and runways to cope with the missiles Russia will send their way.
The main news is that Greece is now willing to donate its F-16 Block 30 aircraft, of which it has 32. They are replacing them with 40 F-35’s.
Block 30 is old. I think we’re on Block 70/72 now. These aircraft will need serious refurbishing and updates to make them viable, likely taking at least 18 months by the time they have finished. Even then they’re so old that they are unlikely to be the best in class. 55 F-16’s were built in Block 30, all C/D variants.
Another possibility is the shipping of the Greek Mirage 2000-5’s but that seems a long way off if it ever happens.
If things pan out then that brings the total of F-16 pledges to Ukraine to 117.
The Russians play down the significance of the jets on the one hand, saying they mean nothing and will change nothing, while on the other hand getting freaked out by ‘escalation from the West’. They’ve already offered $150,000 to the first person to shoot one down.
I find it difficult to imagine how Ukraine will operate these aircraft at anything other than the most remote bases nearest Poland and even then they will require substantial multi-level layered air defence systems to remain protected.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians prepare the surrounding airspace for their arrival, eating away at Russian radars and defences in Crimea and elsewhere.
Soon they may have even more options. Ukraine has developed an ATACMS missile type of its own that is domestically produced and so free of the constraints the US imposes. The missile is expected to become operational very soon. I’ll have more details on that in the coming days.
Slava Ukraini !
F-16 UPDATES
It’s entirely possible that six of the aircraft will begin operating in Ukraine this month. It will be a welcome addition. In the past three weeks Russian long range spy drones have managed to target and call in attacks on at least four Ukrainian aircraft on the ground, mostly in the regions behind the front lines. A pair of Su-27’s and another pair of Mig-29’s seem to have been lost.
Why they were there I don’t rightly fathom. The air bases in question were too close to the front and generally abandoned because of it.
The F-16 of course is riddled with contradictory benefits and concerns.
Where will they be based? How will they operate under constant Russian missile strikes? These are all but inevitable.
The only conceivable way around this is what I am told the now accepted as the only viable way to keep them flying: They will be serviced in neighbouring countries and armed in Ukraine before going on a mission. They will then be disarmed in Ukraine quickly and sent for maintenance outside of the country. Flying them to or from NATO on a direct mission would be seen as an act of war. I find it hard to see how this is even practical long term, but how is Ukraine to defend its bases without the air defences to do so? Let alone the hardened hangars and runways to cope with the missiles Russia will send their way.
The main news is that Greece is now willing to donate its F-16 Block 30 aircraft, of which it has 32. They are replacing them with 40 F-35’s.
Block 30 is old. I think we’re on Block 70/72 now. These aircraft will need serious refurbishing and updates to make them viable, likely taking at least 18 months by the time they have finished. Even then they’re so old that they are unlikely to be the best in class. 55 F-16’s were built in Block 30, all C/D variants.
Another possibility is the shipping of the Greek Mirage 2000-5’s but that seems a long way off if it ever happens.
If things pan out then that brings the total of F-16 pledges to Ukraine to 117.
The Russians play down the significance of the jets on the one hand, saying they mean nothing and will change nothing, while on the other hand getting freaked out by ‘escalation from the West’. They’ve already offered $150,000 to the first person to shoot one down.
I find it difficult to imagine how Ukraine will operate these aircraft at anything other than the most remote bases nearest Poland and even then they will require substantial multi-level layered air defence systems to remain protected.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians prepare the surrounding airspace for their arrival, eating away at Russian radars and defences in Crimea and elsewhere.
Soon they may have even more options. Ukraine has developed an ATACMS missile type of its own that is domestically produced and so free of the constraints the US imposes. The missile is expected to become operational very soon. I’ll have more details on that in the coming days.
Slava Ukraini !
Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected and held a strong speech for Ukraine in the European Parliament, lambasting Orban for visiting Putin.
