Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BobKowalski]

There's never been a situation ("reality of history") which could end in a thousand-year nuclear winter. Why is this so hard to grasp?

I get the impression that people either (a) don't think Putin is mad enough to start a nuclear war, or (b) think nuclear war is "winnable". The last time I heard about a winnable nuclear war they were talking about getting away with as few as 20 million dead Americans.

I think the reasoning and mindset has changed after seeing the shambles of the first two months. The West genuinely thought Russia would win this conflict in a week or two, hence support was limited to strong words, sanctions and some weapons.

Two months on and we are now at the stage of Germany voting to send tanks and Biden offering $33billion in support. As for nuclear weapons, the West now thinks that as long as it doesn’t get directly involved with boots on the ground then nuclear weapons are off the table, and in truth, some are even doubting Russia has the capacity to launch these weapons , whereas the US et al, definitely do have the capacity.

Russia was seen as a first rate military power. Now it’s seen as a clown car. A brutal one when its opponents cannot fight back, but its performance has emboldened the West with Finland and Sweden deciding to get on board.

The die is cast now. Russia is in too deep and the West will keep ramping it up further. Negotiations to end this conflict will only happen when one side is militarily defeated, and the West is all in on Ukraine winning.

 

[ZenHalfTimeCrock]

There's never been a situation ("reality of history") which could end in a thousand-year nuclear winter. Why is this so hard to grasp?

I get the impression that people either (a) don't think Putin is mad enough to start a nuclear war, or (b) think nuclear war is "winnable". The last time I heard about a winnable nuclear war they were talking about getting away with as few as 20 million dead Americans.

The manner in which some posters on here are casually dismissive of posts like this one is understandable - Putin is certainly someone who should not be appeased - but the consequences of a miscalculation here would be irrevocable and catastrophic.

Wish I had their confidence, and that of Gary Kasparov, for all his logic and eloquence, which I actually do find impressive.

For what it's worth, I don't regard Putin as insane but he does seem to exhibit psychopathic traits. And I do think he would use nuclear weapons.

Psychopaths can be rational, but rationality is generally regarded as being in thrall to emotion by psychologists these days, which confirms what the Scottish Enlightenment philosopher David Hume once wrote about reason being the slave of the passions. You just deploy reason to justify whatever you have already decided to do in a post hoc manner.

Hume also famously observed that, “It is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”

Hope that's not how Putin is thinking.

 

[flook]

I know I was too lazy to back up and find the Op, Russian soldiers or not seeing someone cop it is grim.

don't watch it then. I don't particularly want to see someone killed either, so I didn't click the play button. its an easy decision to make for yourself without trying to sensor the board

 

[grunge]

don't watch it then. I don't particularly want to see someone killed either, so I didn't click the play button. its an easy decision to make for yourself without trying to sensor the board

there was no warning on the tweet or the post to say it was someone being killed. just that they came under fire.

easy to avoid if you know what it is, not so easy if you dont. but thems the risks

 

[BobKowalski]

That's kind of my biggest concern

Thats pretty much my concern. What we really seem to be missing is a strong American president who can lead and string a few sentences together and maybe he could hold some sway but because we haven't we have Johnson and Truss blurting stuff out trying to appear strong and putting us right in the firing line. Seems pretty dangerous to me.

Biden is betting a further $33 billion on Ukraine. They are upgrading Ukraine military capabilities on a day by day basis and supplying real time intelligence on Russian troop movements and god knows what else. Ukraine is becoming a NATO ready country, Sweden and Finland are being treated as de facto members.

The US leadership on this has been first rate, even predicting an invasion would happen when everyone else doubted it. Given all this, how ‘strong‘ do you want the US President to be? US$40 billion rather than $33 billion? What exactly?

As for Johnson and Truss. we are just one of many countries on this largely US driven train. Johnson and Truss have a role, but let’s not pretend they are leading this effort or their actions put us in any greater danger than other countries, especially ones who are a damn sight closer to the conflict then we are.

 

[discopop]

don't watch it then. I don't particularly want to see someone killed either, so I didn't click the play button. its an easy decision to make for yourself without trying to sensor the board

Wind your neck in, I have said in another post that a simple warning would be enough. Not trying censor anything.

 

[Scottyboi]

Thought it was pretty mild tbh. 2 girls one cup was worse.

 

[west didsblue]

Biden is betting a further $33 billion on Ukraine. They are upgrading Ukraine military capabilities on a day by day basis and supplying real time intelligence on Russian troop movements and god knows what else. Ukraine is becoming a NATO ready country, Sweden and Finland are being treated as de facto members.

The US leadership on this has been first rate, even predicting an invasion would happen when everyone else doubted it. Given all this, how ‘strong‘ do you want the US President to be? US$40 billion rather than $33 billion? What exactly?

As for Johnson and Truss. we are just one of many countries on this largely US driven train. Johnson and Truss have a role, but let’s not pretend they are leading this effort or their actions put us in any greater danger than other countries, especially ones who are a damn sight closer to the conflict then we are.

Some people are more impressed with the blowhard style of leadership rather than someone who quietly gets on with it and delivers.

 

[AlfGreyruinedmyday]

Things clearly going well. From Eurasia Group...

‘A senior EU source: “Putin has now taken day-to day-control of the conflict and delegated the running of Russia to the Prime Minister’

Hope he's as successful as his role model, Himmler, was in running the Eastern front in early 1945.

 

[BlueAnorak]

There's never been a situation ("reality of history") which could end in a thousand-year nuclear winter. Why is this so hard to grasp?

I get the impression that people either (a) don't think Putin is mad enough to start a nuclear war, or (b) think nuclear war is "winnable". The last time I heard about a winnable nuclear war they were talking about getting away with as few as 20 million dead Americans.

Not hard to grasp at all.
Anyone who doesn't worry about the outcome is either a liar or somewhere on the scale to being a phycopath.
Giving in though is definatrly NOT the option though because Putin will just keep taking more and more. (See Hitler, etc)
Stopping him now is about the ONLY way to prevent Armagedon. Stopping him means making the cost of success so great that even a phychopath would worry about their own future in power. That princuple seems to be difficult for you to grasp.
In addition handing the Ukrainians over to Russia to be raped, murdered and oppressed is unacceptable to myself and many others. Fortunately the vast majority of the Btitish population support Ukraine.