Russian invasion of Ukraine
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gordondaviesmoustache
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I think the issue of sanctions is much more of a hurdle that you imagine. I can’t see European countries going back to anything vaguely resembling a normalisation of ‘peacetime’ trading relations with Russia, and whatever the military reality, they will not want to directly provide Russia with any vehicle to rearm.
I also think Ukraine is unlikely to fall into line based on nebulous ‘security guarantees’ and who could blame them for that? If they are forced to cede territory then they are going to want far more assurance that it won’t happen again. De facto (or actual) membership of NATO being the only guarantee that’s worthwhile. Treaties can be subject to change if it is expeditious to do so. Don’t see any good reason this can’t be accommodated.
The notion of Ukraine losing all that territory AND not having any meaningful umbrella of protection is unconscionable in my view and would send out entirely the wrong signal.
As would doing business with Russia for as long as this regime is in place.
I did previously post on this thread about the danger of isolating Russia after this conflict, but that was predicated on the basis of them being repelled. If that isn’t the case then they cannot be seen to profit from what they have stolen, which means sanctions continuing indefinitely, and, as you (to some extent) say, the deployment of (all of) the frozen assets for reparations, or whatever they want to call it.
grunge
Well-Known Member
Kyiv says Russia has launched intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine
It's the first time such a missile has been used in the war - Ukraine says it was targeting the central-eastern city of Dnipro but the extent of the damage is unclear.
www.bbc.co.uk
Russia fired an ICBM with conventional warhead. targeted somewhere in Dnipro.
Giving Ukraine a few of them to drop on Moscow would liven things up a bitKyiv says Russia has launched intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine
It's the first time such a missile has been used in the war - Ukraine says it was targeting the central-eastern city of Dnipro but the extent of the damage is unclear.www.bbc.co.uk
Russia fired an ICBM with conventional warhead. targeted somewhere in Dnipro.
I don't get the hysteria to be honest. Listening to the media, you'd think we'd launched these missiles ourselves. We've donated this equipment, we're just stepping back on the restrictions that were originally in place and giving Ukraine more flexibility. They aren't long range missiles in the sense of they are not being allowed to be used in a range anywhere near their full capability & are clearly targeting specific military targets while strict restrictions are still in place.
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
Kyiv says Russia has launched intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine
It's the first time such a missile has been used in the war - Ukraine says it was targeting the central-eastern city of Dnipro but the extent of the damage is unclear.www.bbc.co.uk
Russia fired an ICBM with conventional warhead. targeted somewhere in Dnipro.
I posted about that yesterday but deleted as I thought it was just scaremongering.
Mr Kobayashi
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Perhaps a gradual pull back of sanctions and decoupling of them from the peace agreement.
I don't believe that it will go back to the prewar state in scale of trade but I just don't see the appetite for keeping them out in the cold indefinitely and encouraging support for another war.
grunge
Well-Known Member
You were on the money unfortunatly. I think a lot of countries thought they were going to hit Kyiv with all the embassy's closing
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
Apparently they were dummy warheads, they have just spunked millions as a show of force attacking a civilian city again like the cowards they are. It is the first ICBM ever to be used aggressively too.
ICBM OR WHAT?
A missile strike on the Dnipro steel enrichment plant this morning was allegedly from an ICBM. This struck me as unlikely and the warhead pattern - as many as thirty - suggests it was not. It would have required a completely unknown type of delivery bus (the distribution system for the warheads in space) and a new type of unseen warhead. Also MIRV’s have a very distinctive pattern when coming down from space - you can see them easily though not for long.
Western intelligence sources are now saying it wasn’t an ICBM. That’s born out by images of what looks like missile body parts - an ICBM would never have left such a signature on the target as they would have burned up in space.
My estimate is it may well have been an RS-26 Rubezh. These were shorter range ‘cut downs’ of the SS-24 ICBM designed to be road mobile, and in effect, at the time, illegal IRBM. These could carry a light MIRV package.
It could also have left enough ballistic debris fired at such a short range, that its trajectory didn’t destroy all of the missile.
The warheads don’t need to be big, the explosives coupled to the speed of kinetic impact would have been devastating, especially if concentrated in a small area as these appear to have been.
Hopefully we’ll find out in due course. I’m sure the Americans already know, but they won’t say much unless it adds any value.
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