Scottish Independence

[George Hannah]

If Scotland is taken out of the EU against the will of its people, and its people decide they wish another referendum (telling them they are not ‘allowed’ one is counterproductive), then its people might just decide one Union is preferable to an other Union.

The people of Scotand are a voluntary part of the UK and voted to remain so for a generation in the 2014 referendum. The UK voted to leave including several million Scots on both sides of the border.

 

[Ban-jani]

Quite a coincidence that the pro Independence Party in Scotland secured 45% of the popular vote and the pro-Brexit parties in the UK also secured 45% of the popular vote.

Yet the 45% vote in the UK election is seen as affirmation of the Brexit vote whilst the 45% vote for the SNP in Scotland is seen as a minority view against independence.

I don’t want Scotland to leave the UK but no-one can argue that there has not been a material change in Scotland’s status since 2014 when one of the main arguments for staying in the UK union was continued membership of the EU. There is no justification in denying them another referendum.

The affirmation of the Brexit vote is the Brexit vote itself, the general election doesn’t come close to affirming it as much as the referendum itself, regardless of which way the GE went.

My point is that we have the 2014 referendum as the affirmation and even if you were to try and suggest the general election was a mandate for another independence referendum, you’d better have the popular vote, as well as the number of seats, on your side.

Of which they do not.

 

[George Hannah]

I’m well aware that it is, but I’m also aware that a sizeable number of its people would prefer it not to be.

We won't get to find out how sizeable any time soon.

 

[Gabriel]

The people of Scotand are a voluntary part of the UK and voted to remain so for a generation in the 2014 referendum. The UK voted to leave including several million Scots on both sides of the border.

Indeed, but there was no condition in the referendum or compact that said it was an ‘agreed’ or ‘a once in a lifetime’ chance; politicians uttering it then means nothing now. It has the same weight as the SNP claim that Brexit changes the ‘agreement’.

 

[waspish]

I’m well aware that it is, but I’m also aware that a sizeable number of its people would prefer it not to be.

So taking them out of the eu without the will of the people? Uk had a referendum its not like that referendum in was a separate count in scotland. Anyway if they had another referendum for independence they will lose it again.

 

[west didsblue]

The affirmation of the Brexit vote is the Brexit vote itself, the general election doesn’t come close to affirming it as much as the referendum itself, regardless of which way the GE went.

My point is that we have the 2014 referendum as the affirmation and even if you were to try and suggest the general election was a mandate for another independence referendum, you’d better have the popular vote, as well as the number of seats, on your side.

Of which they do not.

I don’t think the government would agree that the election doesn’t affirm the independence vote. We’ve already been told by Johnson that we’ve voted to get Brexit done.

 

[Gabriel]

We won't get to find out how sizeable any time soon.

Perhaps, but it is not going to go away while the UK awaits the benefits of Brexit, which may not materialise for a generation.

 

[George Hannah]

Indeed, but there was no condition in the referendum or compact that said it was an ‘agreed’ or ‘a once in a lifetime’ chance; politicians uttering it then means nothing now. It has the same weight as the SNP claim that Brexit changes the ‘agreement’.

Perhaps, but it is not going to go away while the UK awaits the benefits of Brexit, which may not materialise for a generation.

"A few days before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, then-First Minister Alex Salmond said that the vote was a “once in a generation opportunity”. Yet just two and a half years after Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, the Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of holding a second referendum.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a generation as: “the average period in which children grow up and have children of their own (usually considered to be about thirty years)”. The public, however, is much more likely to put the figure at 20 or 25 years. Overall 41% of Brits believe a generation lasts 20 or 25 years, compared to 14% for 30 years, while a further 12% think it lasts ten years.

A separate survey that only asked Scots this question found much the same results – 39% think a generation is 20 or 25 years, 13% say 30 years and 10% say 10 years.

This Scottish survey did, however, reveal some significant differences between Scots on either side of the independence debate.

Whilst 20 and 25 years were still the most common answers given by both sides, Yes voters were much more likely than No voters to say that a generation lasts fewer than 20 years (28%, compared to 14% of No voters) – although only 2% of Yes voters consider a generation to have passed already.

No voters were likewise more likely to say that a generation lasts from 20 to 30 years (59%, compared to 46% of Yes voters).

Looking at the responses cumulatively, the point at which the majority of Scots say that a generation has passed is 25 years (this is true of both Yes and No voters). If we follow the “once in a generation” logic, these results would dictate that the next Scottish independence referendum be held in 2039.

 

[Gabriel]

So taking them out of the eu without the will of the people? Uk had a referendum its not like that referendum in was a separate count in scotland. Anyway if they had another referendum for independence they will lose it again.

Perhaps, but perhaps the margin would be even narrower in 2014. Were that the case, I’d still not expect the issue to go away.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Tbh I'd dispense with another referendum and accept the Scottish electorates rejection of brexit and endorsement of the SNP as a mandate for independence . Give the SNP a couple of years to fine tune the details for our future relationship and then let them choose to either put that to an in/out referendum, or stand on it at the next GE. I'm pretty sure once the argument for independence turns into coming up with a realistic plan for Scotlands independent future, the SNP will unravel like a badly wrapped kebab.