Scottish Independence

[George Hannah]

Perhaps, but perhaps the margin would be even narrower in 2014. Were that the case, I’d still not expect the issue to go away.

It'll go away with the SNP as soon as the Scots find another party acceptable enough to vote for.

 

[Gabriel]

A few days before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, then-First Minister Alex Salmond said that the vote was a “once in a generation opportunity”. Yet just two and a half years after Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, the Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of holding a second referendum.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a generation as: “the average period in which children grow up and have children of their own (usually considered to be about thirty years)”. The public, however, is much more likely to put the figure at 20 or 25 years. Overall 41% of Brits believe a generation lasts 20 or 25 years, compared to 14% for 30 years, while a further 12% think it lasts ten years.

A separate survey that only asked Scots this question found much the same results – 39% think a generation is 20 or 25 years, 13% say 30 years and 10% say 10 years.

This Scottish survey did, however, reveal some significant differences between Scots on either side of the independence debate.

Whilst 20 and 25 years were still the most common answers given by both sides, Yes voters were much more likely than No voters to say that a generation lasts fewer than 20 years (28%, compared to 14% of No voters) – although only 2% of Yes voters consider a generation to have passed already.

No voters were likewise more likely to say that a generation lasts from 20 to 30 years (59%, compared to 46% of Yes voters).

Looking at the responses cumulatively, the point at which the majority of Scots say that a generation has passed is 25 years (this is true of both Yes and No voters). If we follow the “once in a generation” logic, these results would dictate that the next Scottish independence referendum be held in 2039.

We’ve touched upon this before, but I still don’t think one utterance from Salmond holds any weight. ‘Okay Scottish people. Your then leader said this- yeah him, the one with the busy hands, you believe a generation is this, so shut up until 2039, when we might just give you another hearing.’ It doesn’t dictate anything and won’t resolve the situation.

 

[hgblue]

Agree, however, they have the mandate in This Holyrood parliamentary term, and the numbers in parliament, they don't need to wait till the next election.

But imho, they will. They will ask for a referendum, and use Boris refusing one to secure a majority in Holyrood dor the next five years first, and Then push for a referendum/independence. I could be wrong, but that is my gut feeling.

Speaking as an English unionist I don’t want the Scottish to be kept in a union that they don’t wish to belong to. If the Scottish people wish to leave they should be able to, our union is based on consent, it’s not a prison. The only way to take the toxicity out of this situation is to give the power to call a referendum to the Scottish Parliament. Let the Scottish people decide.

 

[George Hannah]

We’ve touched upon this before, but I still don’t think one utterance from Salmond holds any weight. ‘Okay Scottish people. Your then leader said this- yeah him, the one with the busy hands, you believe a generation is this, so shut up until 2039, when we might just give you another hearing.’ It doesn’t dictate anything and won’t resolve the situation.

He was the elected leader of SNP for 20 years and First Minister of Scotland when he said it (completely unchallenged at the time) obviously expecting to win. What happens to him now is not relevant.

 

[George Hannah]

Speaking as an English unionist I don’t want the Scottish to be kept in a union that they don’t wish to belong to. If the Scottish people wish to leave they should be able to, our union is based on consent, it’s not a prison. The only way to take the toxicity out of this situation is to give the power to call a referendum to the Scottish Parliament. Let the Scottish people decide.

They just can't be trusted - if they voted out they'd want back in within a couple years ....

 

[Coatigan]

The affirmation of the Brexit vote is the Brexit vote itself, the general election doesn’t come close to affirming it as much as the referendum itself, regardless of which way the GE went.

My point is that we have the 2014 referendum as the affirmation and even if you were to try and suggest the general election was a mandate for another independence referendum, you’d better have the popular vote, as well as the number of seats, on your side.

Of which they do not.

you are absutely right, on brexit, and any links to the GE result.

I think that is where you are confusing matters however on indyref2. The affirmation is the result of the 2016 election, the numbers in holyrood, and the fact the decision had been passed to allow the first minister to seek one. This GE result, is more symbolic than anything, really, so when you say it doesn't provide a mandate, you are right (symbolism and moral implications aside). But the mandate certainly is there, politically and more importantly, legally, to ask for one.

 

[Fame Monster]

Tbf, i was beinf facetious in my response to the first paragraph.

Re the second one, that is presumptious and imho not relevant. who decides that anyone should wait for the outcone of a done brexit to be clear before any further decisions are made on anything? there is a party, offering a choice between being a part of a brexit uk, and something else (whatever you or i may think of the merits of either). They continue to win commanding majorities, in both parliaments. They have the mandate. They may not have the desire potentially, fair enough, but there is no arguement anyone needs to wait for anything.

I don't get whether oeople deliberately ignore the last Scottish election result, and parliament's decision on the referendum, or just arent aware of it. But the mandate really is undeniable.

What constitutes a mandate is subjective.

You're saying Scotland have a mandate because:

1. The SNP have the most seats in Scotland in the UK general election
2. The SNP have the most seats in Holyrood

I'm saying they don't because:

1. They lost the last once in a generation referendum in 2014, just 5 years ago
2. The SNP don't have the popular vote in Scotland in the UK General election (the popular vote being far more relevant because that's how referendum outcomes are determined)
3. The SNP don't have the popular vote in Holyrood
4. The polling shows the Scottish people don't want independence
5. The UK hasn't finalised its exit from the EU and hasn't decided its future trading relationships
6. If Scotland want independence because of Brexit then they need to meet most of the basic criteria for joining the EU

Given that Scotland have consistently chosen to invest its sovereignty in the UK to make these decisions since 1707, I don't think the UK Parliament should hold a referendum on Scexit until those 6 different criteria have been met. Therefore, in my opinion, there is no mandate for Scotland to have another referendum.

 

[west didsblue]

Tbh I'd dispense with another referendum and accept the Scottish electorates rejection of brexit and endorsement of the SNP as a mandate for independence . Give the SNP a couple of years to fine tune the details for our future relationship and then let them choose to either put that to an in/out referendum, or stand on it at the next GE. I'm pretty sure once the argument for independence turns into coming up with a realistic plan for Scotlands independent future, the SNP will unravel like a badly wrapped kebab.

Agree with that. It’s how Brexit should’ve been dealt with before the referendum, rather than allowing it with just half baked plans for delivering it.

 

[Gabriel]

He was their elected leader of 25 years when he said it and it went completely unchallenged at the time - what happens to him now is not relevant.

Nor is what he said of any relevance now.

 

[Ban-jani]

I don’t think the government would agree that the election doesn’t affirm the independence vote. We’ve already been told by Johnson that we’ve voted to get Brexit done.

Of course any of them won’t admit to something that doesn’t serve their position of power.