Prestwich_Blue
Well-Known Member
Just been reading a really interesting article in The Economist, which someone mentioned in another thread and which illustrates something some of us have been saying for a while:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/12/competitive-balance-football.
They highlighted all sorts of stats to try to understand why the PL is so competitive and unpredictable this season and one graphic caught my eye:
It's the one on the right, in which the horizontal 'x' axis shows the average speed that teams advance the ball towards the opposition goal and the 'y' axis shows the average distance from the goal that we shoot from. Leicester move the ball the second fastest in the PL when attacking the opposition goal and we are the slowest, just behind Chelsea.
This is not necessarily a problem in itself but shows that we tend to camp on the edge of our opponent's area and keep the ball, rather than launch it forward like Leicester do. I suspect Arsenal were in our position a couple of seasons ago, trying to walk the ball into the net, but have changed their style to get the ball forward quicker in an attacking scenario. However they still like to be closest to the goal when having a shot. Chelsea, on the other hand, move the ball slowly but are shooting from distance and therefore converting fewer chances.
More ominously, the article talks about Leicester and how Kante and Drinkwater get the ball forward to Vardy & Mahrez quickly. It concludes that if you press them relentlessly, they are less likely to be able to do that. That suggests that Toure would be a liability in midfield and that we would be better off with Fernandinho, Delph and Fernando in the middle, all of whom are instructed to be in on Drinkwater & Kante quickly, in the way Liverpool were with Toure. Then I'd play Silva behind Sterling and Aguero, as Silva can also put his foot in when required. I'm sure we won't do that though and that we'll give the Leicester mid-field the run of the park, allowing them to put Vardy & Mahrez in behind our defensive high line.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/12/competitive-balance-football.
They highlighted all sorts of stats to try to understand why the PL is so competitive and unpredictable this season and one graphic caught my eye:
It's the one on the right, in which the horizontal 'x' axis shows the average speed that teams advance the ball towards the opposition goal and the 'y' axis shows the average distance from the goal that we shoot from. Leicester move the ball the second fastest in the PL when attacking the opposition goal and we are the slowest, just behind Chelsea.
This is not necessarily a problem in itself but shows that we tend to camp on the edge of our opponent's area and keep the ball, rather than launch it forward like Leicester do. I suspect Arsenal were in our position a couple of seasons ago, trying to walk the ball into the net, but have changed their style to get the ball forward quicker in an attacking scenario. However they still like to be closest to the goal when having a shot. Chelsea, on the other hand, move the ball slowly but are shooting from distance and therefore converting fewer chances.
More ominously, the article talks about Leicester and how Kante and Drinkwater get the ball forward to Vardy & Mahrez quickly. It concludes that if you press them relentlessly, they are less likely to be able to do that. That suggests that Toure would be a liability in midfield and that we would be better off with Fernandinho, Delph and Fernando in the middle, all of whom are instructed to be in on Drinkwater & Kante quickly, in the way Liverpool were with Toure. Then I'd play Silva behind Sterling and Aguero, as Silva can also put his foot in when required. I'm sure we won't do that though and that we'll give the Leicester mid-field the run of the park, allowing them to put Vardy & Mahrez in behind our defensive high line.