The 8 out of 27 ways City win the title versus United

[west didsblue]

Sky have nine versions:

City can become Premier League champions against United if...
City beat Everton, United beat Swansea
City will maintain their 16-point gap, meaning victory over United will seal the title.

City beat Everton, United draw with Swansea
City will open up an 18-point gap, meaning victory over United will seal the title. A draw against their rivals would mean only goal difference can deny City, if they lose their remaining six games and United win all six and overcome the goal-difference deficit.

City beat Everton, United lose to Swansea
City will open up a 19-point gap, meaning victory or a draw against United will seal the title.


City draw with Everton, United draw with Swansea
City will maintain their 16-point gap, meaning victory over United will seal the title.

City draw with Everton, United lose to Swansea
City will open up a 17-point gap, meaning victory over United will seal the title.

City lose to Everton, United lose to Swansea
City will maintain their 16-point gap, meaning victory over United will seal the title.


City cannot become Premier League champions against United if...
City draw with Everton, United beat Swansea
City's gap will close to 14 points, meaning there is no scenario where City can win the title against United.

City lose to Everton, United beat Swansea
City's gap will close to 13 points, meaning there is no scenario where City can win the title against United.

City lose to Everton, United draw with Swansea
City's gap will close to 15 points. Victory over United would not seal the title, but the 18-point gap would mean only goal difference can deny City, if they lose their remaining six games and United win all six and overcome the goal-difference deficit.

Not true. Tottenham can conceivably get 85 points which means we need to win both unless Tottenham drop points in their two games before the derby.

 

[Cobwebcat]

I'll simplify it for you. We have to get at least the same result as the rags in the Everton game as they get in the Swansea game then beat them in the derby.

Except with two scenarios we can afford to draw the derby

 

[brummie blue]

Not true. Tottenham can conceivably get 85 points which means we need to win both unless Tottenham drop points in their two games before the derby.

hahaha brilliant, Sky spent all that time and forgot about Spurs.

 

[SWP's back]

No, those 8 sequences have Ederson in net, Bravo plays in the other 19.

Well played.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Posters are right in that I have discounted Liverpool and Spurs who come into play in unlikely but possible circumstances.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Except with two scenarios we can afford to draw the derby

We can but we don't want to!

 

[Pokes28]

True, assuming Spurs win both their next 2 games, which are away to Swansea & Chelsea, and we lose all our remaining games while Spurs win all theirs and make up a 30+ difference in GD.

I don't know what would be more bizarre, us losing the rest of the matches, Spurs being perfect the rest of the season (with their latest injuries), or dropping 31 in GD in 8 matches. The odds of any of those three have to be bigger than the 5000-1 Leicester City champions bet. Maybe not Spurs winning out, but the other two certainly are.

 

[west didsblue]

Except with two scenarios we can afford to draw the derby

There are no scenarios where we can win the league on derby day without winning the match.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

There are no scenarios where we can win the league on derby day without winning the match.

If we beat Everton & Swansea beat them (unlikely I know) then we'd be 19 points ahead and could afford a draw.

 

[west didsblue]

If we beat Everton & Swansea beat them (unlikely I know) then we'd be 19 points ahead and could afford a draw.

But Spurs could equal our points total if they win them all and we lose the rest.