The Athletic Study: City have had the hardest cup draws of big six over last decade!

[dadnlad]

surely the further you go in tournaments the harder games appear, spurs n liverpool throw cup games away but never mentioned

 

[vmsuhail]

This is true when considering the decade. But, if taken in the Pep era, it's certain we've had the easiest draws. So, it's been balancing recently.

 

[Exeter Blue I am here]

By coincidence I’ve just done a piece for King of the Kippax on precisely this topic, only using a much bigger window. FA Cup and League Cup draws right back to 1992/93, the start of the Premier League era, for the so called ‘big 6’ clubs. The only data I omitted was that for Round 2 of the Carabao Cup, which European competitors ceased to play in from 97 onwards, because participation in that round carried a very high (75%) likelihood of drawing non-PL opponents. City played in that round 13 times and Spurs 10, whilst Arsenal never played in it at all, and including it would have skewed the findings. I also didn’t include finals, as they were a fait accompli with no draw involved.
Suffice to say, using a 28 year window and working on the premise that the notion of ‘rigged‘ draws was complete bollocks, I was expecting ‘luck’ to broadly even itself out....and guess what, it did.
I’ll sling the data up on here tomorrow

 

[2bluejacko]

always far too much detail for stats like this to be useful at face value;

for a start, if you make 8 (!) of the last 20 domestic cup finals over the last 10 years, then surely you meet a lot more better teams in the latter stages and naturally your average opponent is better

edit1: to be honest i havent read it because i cant but they may adjust for latter stages and make it relative to who is left in the draw - maybe someone who can read it can comment.

edit2: EIGHT?! fuck me we're lucky fans

No wonder I'm skint with all those semi final and final trips to Wembley

 

[Berts Neck]

There were times in the CL I thouhgt we had a raw deal,always Barca or BM. Toss a coin,you may get 5 heads in a row,but the truth is it evens itself out in the end ? This analysis does prove we are due a few more easy fixtures,just to even matters out !!

 

[spiny]

No surprise.
We are getting there and will soon be favoured as our popularirity continues to grow as others wane.
Bent?

 

[ninjamonkey]

Another needless use of stats in the game, it's becoming Americanised. How do they deem one tie harder than another? Most logical would be league position but even that's bullshit, say you face a top 10 side who has been on a poor recent run, has injuries and doesn't prioritise the cups, that would be classed a harder tie than a bottom half side who's on a good run of form, a fresh squad and puts out a full strength side when in reality that's likely a harder tie.

Even though it looks kindly on us it's a load of crap.

 

[Corky]

surely the further you go in tournaments the harder games appear, spurs n liverpool throw cup games away but never mentioned

Exactly, it isn't a surprise that the big clubs are all at the top. You can't tell what is an easy draw on paper either, a premier league team playing a 2nd sting or a championship team up for it.


If anyone draws city it is a harder draw for them than us normally too. There haven't been too may times you would think city were 2nd favourites in a cup comp in any game since 2011 bar the Chelsea game were we played a complete 2nd string.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

This is true when considering the decade. But, if taken in the Pep era, it's certain we've had the easiest draws. So, it's been balancing recently.

Last 3-4 years we must have have the easiest draws in the history of football!

It’s fucking well funny when we pull out another easy CL group or FA/EFL Cup draw and seeing the reaction of United and Liverpool fans.

One Scouser said recently “and have you seen their Premier League fixtures?”... what the ones where every team plays every other team twice?!