The Conservative Party

I honestly think the Tory party will split with a new hard right, very anti EU spin off that the likes of Farage will join.
 
blueinsa said:
I honestly think the Tory party will split with a new hard right, very anti EU spin off that the likes of Farage will join.
Click to expand...
I can't see it.

I used to think there was excellent opportunity for moderate, right leaning Labour MPs and moderate, left leaning Tories to come together in a new party and to say fuck em to the idiots on the far right and the idiots on the far left. The centre ground in British politics is nearly always where the big majorities can be found and yet neither party seems to want to make a play for it.

But it was pointed out to me that since the majority of Labour voters only ever vote Labour, and the same on the Tory side, then any new party will struggle get anything like enough votes. There aren't enough swing voters to appeal to, in order to win in any given seat. They could poll perhaps 25% of the national vote and end up with maybe 10 MPs!

The same logic applies to just a Tory split. Those contemplating it would realise than unless they could take the name Conservative with them, nothing like enough people would vote for them. So it would be the end of their political careers and I can't see anyone wanting to do that.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I can't see it.

I used to think there was excellent opportunity for moderate, right leaning Labour MPs and moderate, left leaning Tories to come together in a new party and to say fuck em to the idiots on the far right and the idiots on the far left. The centre ground in British politics is nearly always where the big majorities can be found and yet neither party seems to want to make a play for it.

But it was pointed out to me that since the majority of Labour voters only ever vote Labour, and the same on the Tory side, then any new party will struggle get anything like enough votes. There aren't enough swing voters to appeal to, in order to win in any given seat. They could poll perhaps 25% of the national vote and end up with maybe 10 MPs!

The same logic applies to just a Tory split. Those contemplating it would realise than unless they could take the name Conservative with them, nothing like enough people would vote for them. So it would be the end of their political careers and I can't see anyone wanting to do that.
Click to expand...

It should be remembered that UKIP took nearly 4 million votes at the 2015 GE, many coming from the right of the Tory party along with some of the poorer Labour areas of the country and if we don’t leave the EU, I can see those and more looking for a new home in the future.

It’s all on the next few months that’s for sure.
 
blueinsa said:
It should be remembered that UKIP took nearly 4 million votes at the 2015 GE, many coming from the right of the Tory party along with some of the poorer Labour areas of the country and if we don’t leave the EU, I can see those and more looking for a new home in the future.

It’s all on the next few months that’s for sure.
Click to expand...

How many MP's did they return to Westminster? Remind me.
 
blueinsa said:
It should be remembered that UKIP took nearly 4 million votes at the 2015 GE, many coming from the right of the Tory party along with some of the poorer Labour areas of the country and if we don’t leave the EU, I can see those and more looking for a new home in the future.

It’s all on the next few months that’s for sure.
Click to expand...
It's highly unlikely to be UKIP now that they've associated themselves with Yaxley-Lennon.
 
blueinsa said:
Due to our system not many.

That’s not the point we were discussing though before you barged in.
Click to expand...

Two Tory defectors ( Carswell and Reckless ) won seats for UKIP in by-elections they caused by standing down and one of them ( Reckless ) subsequently lost his seat at the next GE. Post his re-election Carswell defected back to the Tories. Not great is it? And thats why Chippy's answer is correct and there is no chance of success for such a party born out of a split.
 
aguero93:20 said:
It's highly unlikely to be UKIP now that they've associated themselves with Yaxley-Lennon.
Click to expand...

Absolutely.

Farage has already distanced himself ready to join a new ship that much is clear.

Batten and co are nobodies, pandering to their football hooligan cheerleaders.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Two Tory defectors ( Carswell and Reckless ) won seats for UKIP in by-elections they caused by standing down and one of them ( Reckless ) subsequently lost his seat at the next GE. Post his re-election Carswell defected back to the Tories. Not great is it? And thats why Chippy's answer is correct and there is no chance of success for such a party born out of a split.
Click to expand...

Thanks for actually discussing the topic at hand.

If brexit is abandoned as seems likely I just feel that there will be an exodus of voters from Labour to a lesser extent but definitely from the right of the Tory party and they will find a home in a new anti EU party. I used UKIP to show the amount of votes that can be won by such a party when people feel disaffected.

Only our voting system stopped UKIP getting a real foothold and it’s to be remembered the SNP ended up with over 50 mp’s despite getting more than half the total votes.

All on brexit and how it pans out.
 
blueinsa said:
Thanks for actually discussing the topic at hand.

If brexit is abandoned as seems likely I just feel that there will be an exodus of voters from Labour to a lesser extent but definitely from the right of the Tory party and they will find a home in a new anti EU party. I used UKIP to show the amount of votes that can be won by such a party when people feel disaffected.

Only our voting system stopped UKIP getting a real foothold and it’s to be remembered the SNP ended up with over 50 mp’s despite getting more than half the total votes.

All on brexit and how it pans out.
Click to expand...

The SNP run in Scotland only - its a different electoral landscape up there so 50 seats on their turnout is not representative of the whole. Think more of the SDP - formed in the 80's as a result of disaffected MP's from Labour and one Tory splitting and forming a new party having identified the need for a new "centrist" party. They polled around 3 - 4 million at each GE they stood in and got fewer than half a dozen seats each time. Your hope is a vain hope - the only real effect such a party would have would be on the results for the party from which the majority of the new one come from - i.e. if its a lot of Tories it will just serve to split the Tory vote and give Labour a free run by lowering the bar. MP's know that and aren't mad enough to risk it.
 
bluethrunthru said:
The SNP run in Scotland only - its a different electoral landscape up there so 50 seats on their turnout is not representative of the whole. Think more of the SDP - formed in the 80's as a result of disaffected MP's from Labour and one Tory splitting and forming a new party having identified the need for a new "centrist" party. They polled around 3 - 4 million at each GE they stood in and got fewer than half a dozen seats each time. Your hope is a vain hope - the only real effect such a party would have would be on the results for the party from which the majority of the new one come from - i.e. if its a lot of Tories it will just serve to split the Tory vote and give Labour a free run by lowering the bar. MP's know that and aren't mad enough to risk it.
Click to expand...
And this is why FPTP is a shite system.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Agree - but its the one we have - we blew the chance of changing it when we got it ...................I know lets re-run that referendum too !!
Click to expand...
AV was woeful as well, that looked set up to fail tbh. A proper PR system could have won that vote imo.
 
aguero93:20 said:
AV was woeful as well, that looked set up to fail tbh. A proper PR system could have won that vote imo.
Click to expand...

It was still a change though. Maybe break the mould of FPTP identify that AV wasn't the answer and in time move to PR. By letting the establishment cling on to FPTP they were given a mandate to say fuck off to all further suggestions of change.
 
bluethrunthru said:
It was still a change though. Maybe break the mould of FPTP identify that AV wasn't the answer and in time move to PR. By letting the establishment cling on to FPTP they were given a mandate to say fuck off to all further suggestions of change.
Click to expand...
Nah, they served up a pile of shit as an alternative so they could say people voted to keep FPTP, neither the Tories or Labour want to see that change, it keeps government between the pair of them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top