The Labour Government

[BigJoe#1]

But accurate bullshit( I won't embarass you by bothering to repeat what you put). Hope you're well and welcoming all of the investment into Wales. Better than Nigel wanting to come and dig up your back garden I bet.

Yet more complete bollocls. If you don't think for one minute increasing employers NI contributions has not raised prices then clearly you don't do any shopping and you need to go back to hospital and get your brain examined. The increase in Employers NI have had and will continue to hit prices more... as will the ridiculous energy prices we are having to pay. Now go bury your head in someone else's garden ,your arse has had far to much air time.

 

[bluenova]

Well im sure we both agree, unemployment and employment can't both be rising? Typical ONS ;-) Over 4000 people including contractors work there nr Newport would you believe!

Here's around 17000 words, where the ONS explains that it's quite hard to measure.

Comparison of labour market data sources - Office for National Statistics

Strengths and weaknesses of the main data sources used to produce labour market figures, advantages of new administrative data sources and current limitations.

www.ons.gov.uk

There's even a recent full fact where they say Kemi Badenoch's claim of a drop in jobs and Starmer's claim of an increase, are both "correct" :)

 

[hampshireblue]

Yet more complete bollocls. If you don't think for one minute increasing employers NI contributions has not raised prices then clearly you don't do any shopping and you need to go back to hospital and get your brain examined. The increase in Employers NI have had and will continue to hit prices more... as will the ridiculous energy prices we are having to pay. Now go bury your head in someone else's garden ,your arse has had far to much air time.

Now that really is deflection in the extreme! For someone who has always told us people are entitled to an opinion, 3 insults in 4 lines is quite impressive. Anyway well done to the government as my car insurance just came down by 10%......!!

 

[BlueAnorak]

I see labour's assault on Private Education is backfiring spectactulary and may cost the Treasury £660m PA. 11k pupils in England alone have bailed from Private Education rather than the 3k expected. The result more state cash going to state schools turning extra cash for schools into a defecit...

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Here's around 17000 words, where the ONS explains that it's quite hard to measure.

Comparison of labour market data sources - Office for National Statistics

Strengths and weaknesses of the main data sources used to produce labour market figures, advantages of new administrative data sources and current limitations.

www.ons.gov.uk

There's even a recent full fact where they say Kemi Badenoch's claim of a drop in jobs and Starmer's claim of an increase, are both "correct" :)

To my simple mind one set of employment figures would just off set the unemployment ones. That would make sense.

 

[west didsblue]

Yet more complete bollocls. If you don't think for one minute increasing employers NI contributions has not raised prices then clearly you don't do any shopping and you need to go back to hospital and get your brain examined. The increase in Employers NI have had and will continue to hit prices more... as will the ridiculous energy prices we are having to pay. Now go bury your head in someone else's garden ,your arse has had far to much air time.

I thought you had nothing more to say.

 

[west didsblue]

I see labour's assault on Private Education is backfiring spectactulary and may cost the Treasury £660m PA. 11k pupils in England alone have bailed from Private Education rather than the 3k expected. The result more state cash going to state schools turning extra cash for schools into a defecit...

Your figures don’t add up. An extra 11,000 pupils costing £660m would work out at £60,000 each which is 8 times the average. And that’s the best case if the increased VAT take from the isn’t taken into account. If it’s actually £660m more going out than coming in from VAT on the remaining 590,000 private school pupils, that would be an additional £2.3bn spent on state education or £210,000 per child.

Telegraph was it?

 

[metalblue]

Umm something doesn't seem right then.

One is a survey (shows a rise) the other is based on actual data (shows a decline).

I know which one I’d pay most attention to.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Your figures don’t add up. An extra 11,000 pupils costing £660m would work out at £60,000 each which is 8 times the average. And that’s the best case if the increased VAT take from the isn’t taken into account. If it’s actually £660m more going out than coming in from VAT on the remaining 590,000 private school pupils, that would be an additional £2.3bn spent on state education or £210,000 per child.

Telegraph was it?

some background - it appears VAT on fee's was not the only driver - there are many reasons for it that the OP chose not to include - also the article doesn't mention how many of that 11k had to leave schools that were closing as their fee's went up and up year on year ( average last year before VAT was up by 22.6% ) - the overall impact was forecast by the Govt to be 35 - 37k pupils moving overtime so 11k would indicate the estimates were correct.

Full extent of private school ‘exodus’ revealed after VAT on fees

There were around 11,000 fewer pupils in independent schools in January compared with the same point last year, Government figures show.

www.independent.co.uk

 

[bluethrunthru]

This is what people meant when they said the adults were in charge now. Labour have made deals and agreements and have policies going through Parliament right now that will impact on peoples lives. All the Tories did for 14 years was slash and burn - destroy and delete. The only deal they ever did was Brexit and that was so shit and amateurish that Foxy was trashing his own deal before the ink on the signatures was dry.

UK agrees post-Brexit deal over Gibraltar

Talks on rules governing the border of Spain and Gibraltar have been ongoing since Britain left the EU.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[bluenova]

I see labour's assault on Private Education is backfiring spectactulary and may cost the Treasury £660m PA. 11k pupils in England alone have bailed from Private Education rather than the 3k expected. The result more state cash going to state schools turning extra cash for schools into a defecit...

Those numbers just don't add up.

The prediction by the end of the Parliament was 37k (14k by the end of the 25/26 year). That's ahead of schedule, but then the prediction was that it would be raising £1.5b by that second year, and 1.7b by the end of the Parliament, so the extra kids clearly don't cost anything like that much.

It's also only a "cost" because the first year VAT take is predicted to be 400m, compared with 1.5b in year 2.

And then of course, school rolls are predicted to FALL by hundreds of thousands during the same period, so compared with today, the costs aren't particularly scary.

 

[Don Karleone]

I'm sure those people who will lose their benefits will be buzzing for a new fucking nuclear power plant!

 

[Vic]

Now that really is deflection in the extreme! For someone who has always told us people are entitled to an opinion, 3 insults in 4 lines is quite impressive. Anyway well done to the government as my car insurance just came down by 10%......!!

Premiums will be even less in Wales with the lower accident rates because of the 20mph limits.

 

[Brewster's millions]

but

but:

In the past year, the UK's employment levels have seen an increase of around 667,000. This represents a growth of 0.8% from the level a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics. Vacancies have also decreased, falling to 736,000 and are now below pre-pandemic levels, reports The House of Commons Library.

The measure of employment you're quoting there - the broadest available - has been essentially static since the turn of the year, and I would think is likely to show a fall in the next release.

It's measured by a survey over a three month period and the latest available (for February to April) placed employment only 15K above the December to February level, so the 667K gain over the year doesn't really provide an accurate picture of what's currently happening in the labour market.

Meanwhile the separate payroll data show a 109K fall in employment in May alone, the seventh successive monthly decline. The interesting development here is that while the initially large reported declines in payroll employment have tended to be revised to show smaller reductions over time, the opposite happened this time around, and the data now show a 55K decline in April rather than the first estimate of a 33K drop. So overall worrying data.

 

[bluethrunthru]

The measure of employment you're quoting there - the broadest available - has been essentially static since the turn of the year, and I would think is likely to show a fall in the next release.

It's measured by a survey over a three month period and the latest available (for February to April) placed employment only 15K above the December to February level, so the 667K gain over the year doesn't really provide an accurate picture of what's currently happening in the labour market.

Meanwhile the separate payroll data show a 109K fall in employment in May alone, the seventh successive monthly decline. The interesting development here is that while the initially large reported declines in payroll employment have tended to be revised to show smaller reductions over time, the opposite happened this time around, and the data now show a 55K decline in April rather than the first estimate of a 33K drop. So overall worrying data.

my daughter works for a major high street clothing retailer. When the increased NI costs kicked in they put a recruitment freeze on. Its work mostly done by students and young people on minimum wage and there is a lot of churn. They found complaints about lack of staff rose and more importantly shop lifting trebled. The freeze is now thawed.

 

[BridgyDids]

Now that really is deflection in the extreme! For someone who has always told us people are entitled to an opinion, 3 insults in 4 lines is quite impressive. Anyway well done to the government as my car insurance just came down by 10%......!!

Insurance premiums reducing (at present) are nothing to do with government. It’s more to do with investors and PE houses seeing there is a lot of money to be made in the industry, as by and large there has been fairly benign weather over the last few years (less catastrophic losses). Insurance is seen as recession proof, so more the Insurance companies and brokers are cannibalising one another.

Now they want more market share (ROI for those investors)- so they are slashing rates.

It is unsustainable; and will change soon (18 months) - so prices will raise in the medium term.

Again; this will not be a government issue. It’s a capitalism issue.

 

[Brewster's millions]

my daughter works for a major high street clothing retailer. When the increased NI costs kicked in they put a recruitment freeze on. Its work mostly done by students and young people on minimum wage and there is a lot of churn. They found complaints about lack of staff rose and more importantly shop lifting trebled. The freeze is now thawed.

The payroll data certainly appear more consistent with a hiring freeze rather than a surge in redundancies - a breakdown between flows onto and out of the payrolls are provided, rather than just the net change - but it won't really matter if the data continue as they are.

If they go into the Autumn Statement with the main measures of employment declining, then it will obviously be difficult for them politically given the likelihood of needing to raise taxes further.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

The more I hear from Tories on today’s announcements, the more I like what the governemment have put forward. Not everybody got what they wanted, but there was a good whack to go around.

What I’m seeing is Labour quickly reversing all the shit that the previous governments enacted, all stuff that wasn’t for the betterment of the people. They’ve gone that far, that fast, it’s got the Right/Right Wing spinning so much that they are actively lying, trying to spread a different narrative to the good stuff we’ve been hearing about.

Oh, and listened to some of Stride’s retort to Reeves. Sounded like he was back in Victorian times, telling the poor that they should have been grateful to get a spoon of gruel. The lies that came out of his mouth were so pitiful that I was actually laughing at him, along with the rest of the House.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Zia Yusuf - floundering when asked the question when answering the spending review - shallow as a puddle

 

[blueinsa]

GDP for April -0.3%.

Unlucky and cant catch a break with world events or a victim of their own policies with business tax hikes hitting jobs and confidence?