richards30
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De Bruyne, Mendy, Fernandinho and stones all due back as well will help!
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How many trophies will we win?
- Thread starter PR7
- Start date
BertTrautmann'sParachute
Well-Known Member
Anyone know what the situation is with any of these 4?De Bruyne, Mendy, Fernandinho and stones all due back as well will help!
This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.
I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.
Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)
(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).
Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).
The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
Where are u getting the probabilities from?
City have 80% chance of qualifying against Spurs and will almost certain be favs in the final regardless of who the other finalist is.
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Deleted member 81382
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De Bruyne, Mendy, Fernandinho and stones all due back as well will help!
The first three are back after the international break and Stones a week later apparently.Anyone know what the situation is with any of these 4?
Wafty Cranker
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This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.
I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.
Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)
(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).
Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).
The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
I can see the logic behind what you're saying, especially the bit about you can't use the bookies odds as a guide to probability of something actually happening, but your numbers are way off in my opinion. There is no way we are 28/1 for the quadruple. Realistically we're about 8/1 or 7/1 I reckon.
There is no way we're only 12.5% for the Champions League. I reckon you can double that to 25%. Using your own logic,which I agree with, you need to apply a probability to each outcome, and in this instance there are 8 outcomes for the outright winner that each need to add up to 100%.
I reckon something more realistic for the Champions League would look like this
Man City 25%
Jueventus 22%
Barca 20%
Liverpool 18%
United 5%
Spurs 5%
Ajax 3%
Porto 2%
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birchwoodgingerste
Well-Known Member
If we can win 15 games with a 3/4 strength team we can win 16 with a full strength team. its on like donkey Kong cmmon city we can do this.
Jordie
Well-Known Member
Was thinking the other day, if we do win the first three, that will be a very long two weeks in between.Almost a miracle is a bit strong, especially if Kev and Ferna are back and firing.
There’s also a decent gap between the end of the PL and the FA Cup final and a big gap between the FA Cup and CL finals.
BertTrautmann'sParachute
Well-Known Member
If this happens and they stay fit it could be the mother of all season-ends.The first three are back after the international break and Stones a week later apparently.
Well it's only opinion. It all comes down to your assessment of the likely outcome of each tie. I quote below each round and the Probability of a City win.I can see the logic behind what you're saying, especially the bit about you can't use the bookies odds as a guide to probability of something actually happening, but your numbers are way off in my opinion. There is no way we are 28/1 for the quadruple. Realistically we're about 8/1 or 7/1 I reckon.
There is no way we're only 12.5% for the Champions League. I reckon you can double that to 25%. Using your own logic,which I agree with, you need to apply a probability to each outcome, and in this instance there are 8 outcomes for the outright winner that each need to add up to 100%.
I reckon something more realistic for the Champions League would look like this
Man City 25%
Jueventus 22%
Barca 20%
Liverpool 18%
United 5%
Spurs 5%
Ajax 3%
Porto 2%
Quarter Finals: City v Spurs, 0.65
Semi-Finals: 0.50
Final: 0.40
Multiply the numbers out (0.65 x 0.50 x 0.40) and that's my Probability for City winning the Champions League (13%).
Anyone can do likewise for each leg and see what they get. Convert it to odds if you want and then compare to the bookmakers.
Everyone's likely outcomes will be slightly different depending on how we assess the ranking of each side. I would put City on a par with Juve, and slightly behind Barcelona. Of course Barcelona or Juve could well get knocked out so my Probability is possibly on the low side, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.
Wafty Cranker
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Well it's only opinion. It all comes down to your assessment of the likely outcome of each tie. I quote below each round and the Probability of a City win.
Quarter Finals: City v Spurs, 0.65
Semi-Finals: 0.50
Final: 0.40
Multiply the numbers out (0.65 x 0.50 x 0.40) and that's my Probability for City winning the Champions League (13%).
Anyone can do likewise for each leg and see what they get. Convert it to odds if you want and then compare to the bookmakers.
Everyone's likely outcomes will be slightly different depending on how we assess the ranking of each side. I would put City on a par with Juve, and slightly behind Barcelona. Of course Barcelona or Juve could well get knocked out so my Probability is possibly on the low side, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.
It's cool Marvin. I'm not having a go, I just don't agree with your numbers. If you're saying City are 13% to win, and Juve at around 13%, and say Barca at 14%. That is only 40%, which means you're giving the other 5 teams a 60% chance of lifting the European Cup, which I disagree with. I'd put City, Barca and Juve all at 20% or over, with Liverpool not far behind.
Overall, I'd put as at around 25% for the Champs League, 80% for the FA Cup, and around 67% for the league, and obviously 100% for the League Cup. when you convert that to odds for the quadruple it comes in around 15/2. In my opinion that's about right.