How many trophies will we win?

Marvin said:
You've converted your probability into odds incorrectly. I get 13/2 odds for your probability of 13.4%.

80% probability of an FA Cup win implies that you think the probability of winning the final is 90%. Do you really believe that? 67% for the League? I think you've overstated City's chances in every competition, but it's just opinion.
Click to expand...

I might have got a bit excited with regard to the FA Cup. I’ll give you that. If I drop the FA Cup to 70% and stand by my others that gives

FA Cup 70%
League 67%
Champs League 25%

That’ll give those odds I mentioned of 15/2.

I just can’t see how you have us at only 45% for the FA Cup and 13% for the Champs League. If that’s what you think there is some great value to be had for you backing the other teams.
 
Wafty Cranker said:
I might have got a bit excited with regard to the FA Cup. I’ll give you that. If I drop the FA Cup to 70% and stand by my others that gives

FA Cup 70%
League 67%
Champs League 25%

That’ll give those odds I mentioned of 15/2.

I just can’t see how you have us at only 45% for the FA Cup and 13% for the Champs League. If that’s what you think there is some great value to be had for you backing the other teams.
Click to expand...
13% comes from: Q-Finals (Spurs) 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. I multiply the outcomes of each round together, and get 13%. If you disagree with my outcome of 13%, then you need to say whether it's the QF, SF, or Final that you don't like.

I know 13% is low, but the ties are very evenly matched in my opinion. I've got City strong favourites to beat Spurs but thereafter roughly 50/50. To get to your 25% you have to have City down as strong favourites to win each CL round (63%) in fact. In my opinion that's totally unrealistic. OK for Spurs but thereafter unlikely.

For the FA Cup: Brighton 0.7, Final, 0.65 = 45.5%. Again that's broken down for you, so you can see where it has come from.

No good saying "I don't see how". I've shown you how. I've given likelihoods for each round so if you disagree,it's better to say which outcome of which round is wrong.
 
TheThirdDeano said:
5/1 sounds like crazy odds to me, way too low!
Click to expand...

It is to low. But that’s what it adds up to when you calculate all the competitions we are left in together.
Last time I looked we were 5/6 to win the domestic treble which sounds even more crazier to me because the feat has never been achieved before!
 
Marvin said:
13% comes from: Q-Finals (Spurs) 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. I multiply the outcomes of each round together, and get 13%. If you disagree with my outcome of 13%, then you need to say whether it's the QF, SF, or Final that you don't like.

I know 13% is low, but the ties are very evenly matched in my opinion. I've got City strong favourites to beat Spurs but thereafter roughly 50/50. To get to your 25% you have to have City down as strong favourites to win each CL round (63%) in fact. In my opinion that's totally unrealistic. OK for Spurs but thereafter unlikely.

For the FA Cup: Brighton 0.7, Final, 0.65 = 45.5%. Again that's broken down for you, so you can see where it has come from.

No good saying "I don't see how". I've shown you how. I've given likelihoods for each round so if you disagree,it's better to say which outcome of which round is wrong.
Click to expand...

Every round is wrong imo. Roughly for the CL, round by round I’d say
QF 75%
SF 60%
Final 55%

That gives you just under 25% overall.

Out of interest, what chance would you give Spurs of going all the way?

You’ve got us at 46% for the FA Cup! Do you actually think there is more chance that Brighton, Wolves or Watford will win the Cup than City?

Surely you’ve got to fancy us to lift the FA Cup?
 
the plasterer said:
The quad won’t happen, simple as that, winning 1 more cup will be a struggle, 3 more??, no chance
Click to expand...
We have a very good shot at the fa cup and the league so i think 3 is definitely possible but champions league is where we'll fall short i think but a domestic treble would be a great season if it happens.
 
- FA Cup: not only doable, but should be expected.

- Premier League: run in is not nearly as easy as Liverpool’s, especially considering when we play the two biggest games, so I think we might need Liverpool to drop points, as I think we will.

- Champions League: QF should be won. Juve in the SF is a Final. From there, if we get into the Final, I think we win because of the preparation time, even after a possible FA Cup Final.

Given the games left, this may be the best opportunity ever to do the impossible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.