The Scottish Politics thread

[Gabriel]

The four largest cities all have universities and large European communities, many of whom would have been No voters last time since a Yes vote threatened their EU status. That would be one demographic that could reasonably be expected to turn next time.

 

[Gabriel]

You missed it. It’s true. There was an assessment of age group voting. 65+ the only group to vote a majority, a big majority and fucked us all up the selfish old bastards.

Question is whether those who were in their 50s in 2014 are as ardent in 2023, or whether the fear of losing what they have makes them more reticent with age.

 

[blueparrot]

The four largest cities all have universities and large European communities, many of whom would have been No voters last time since a Yes vote threatened their EU status. That would be one demographic that could reasonably be expected to turn next time.

They would be the ones targeted, as would I. I could easilly tip over to Yes. That though would be dependent on what the EU offer and say before any referendum. Starmers no to S.M has made me voting Yes more likely than less.

 

[Coatigan]

Study examines referendum demographics

A study suggests the 'No' vote in the referendum was due to an unusual alliance of Scotland's youngest voters, its average earners, Protestants and women.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yeah pretty much says it isn't true, as only 3 of the 8 different age groups voted more for yes than no.

16-24s no, 25-50s yes, 50+ no.

Yes has the smallest span, of about 25 years, while no spans at the very least 45

 

[Coatigan]

The four largest cities all have universities and large European communities, many of whom would have been No voters last time since a Yes vote threatened their EU status. That would be one demographic that could reasonably be expected to turn next time.

Some sense in that. Really almost impossible to read though, oveall or let alone by any given demographic.

And that's before you even factor in Covid and the effects of that and how they will impact the thinking.

 

[Magicpole]

Question is whether those who were in their 50s in 2014 are as ardent in 2023, or whether the fear of losing what they have makes them more reticent with age.

One of the pledges is to raise the pension to EU levels. Well, they have witnessed how awful another couple of Tory gov’s have been. Hopefully that penny dropped years ago, and now with this shower of arseholes destroying our sectors with Brexit doubly so. We all know England will keep voting them in, which is their right, but we don’t and shouldn’t have to put up with them.

 

[Gabriel]

They would be the ones targeted, as would I. I could easilly tip over to Yes. That though would be dependent on what the EU offer and say before any referendum. Starmers no to S.M has made me voting Yes more likely than less.

The EU cannot and will not say anything that could legally or politically be construed as undermining a sovereign state, the UK, even one now outside its scope. I would be more interested in what it does not say and does not commit to.

Those who argue that Scotland would not be accepted or would have to perform remarkable feats are generally doing so because they fear the break up of the UK, but the evidence of who has been accepted and who will be accepted suggests strongly that Scotland would be in (around 5 years?) quite quickly and comparatively smoothly.

 

[Magicpole]

The EU cannot and will not say anything that could legally or politically be construed as undermining a sovereign state, the UK, even one now outside its scope. I would be more interested in what it does not say and does not commit to.

Those who argue that Scotland would not be accepted or would have to perform remarkable feats are generally doing so because they fear the break up of the UK, but the evidence of who has been accepted and who will be accepted suggests strongly that Scotland would be in (around 5 years?) quite quickly and comparatively smoothly.

We were a member and pulled out against our will, it won’t take five years. Many states want us back as they know it was daft cunts who took us out.

 

[Gabriel]

We were a member and pulled out against our will, it won’t take five years. Many states want us back as they know it was daft cunts who took us out.

That’s sentiment though, not reality. Finland was the fastest country to join and that was in just under 3 years and it was already an independent state. Scotland’s application can only begin once it has decoupled from the rUK, so it will likely take 5 years. It might be slightly accelerated for geopolitical purposes, but the evidence from previous cases is around 5 years.

 

[Gabriel]

One of the pledges is to raise the pension to EU levels. Well, they have witnessed how awful another couple of Tory gov’s have been. Hopefully that penny dropped years ago, and now with this shower of arseholes destroying our sectors with Brexit doubly so. We all know England will keep voting them in, which is their right, but we don’t and shouldn’t have to put up with them.

As I’ve said before, the economic conditions will be more in the SNP’s favour next year, with the UK likely in recession, one exacerbated by Brexit, so that would be different to the situation in 2014. That’s another reason why Westminster will be so keen to resist agreeing to a referendum.