The Scottish Politics thread

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blueparrot said:
That is the point, though initially the thought was it would prevent perpetual Labour governments. The system has only ever been ‘broken’ once when the SNP won a majority, every other time as the last session power has needed 2nd parties for support.
If they win a majority this time it would be the second time they have broken the system. More likely they will need Green support again though.
Although if they are only 1 or 2 short there may be other options for partners on a policy by policy basis.
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and @mancity2012_eamo


There are basically only two ways to win a majority. Win it all through just the constituency seats and no regionals. To do that a party would need to win over 91% of those seats, and then the fact they can't win any at regional doesnt matter.

OR, win the perfect storm of circa 70% constituency seats and circa 30% regional, which is about the only possible combination before any more of one cancels out the other. And obviously depends on other parties in the regional being relatively evenly split. Which is what happened in 2011.

Currently it looks like SNP will win between 85-89% of the constituency seats, which is enough to stop them winning enough at regionals to bridge the gap, but not enough for an outright majority. They could well end up with 60-62 constituency seats, and only needing 3 or 4 at regional level to get over the line, and because they did So well at constituency, they will have no chance of those 3 seats at regional despite having close to 50% of the vote.

A good example is the south region, where in the 2016 election they got 3 of their only 4 regional seats. Now, because two of the constituency seat gains (ayr and lothian) are both in the south, they are likely to lose 2 or even all 3 of those regional seats, with the same or higher percentage of votes, because the dividing factor is now 2 higher.




All that being said, I personally don't think the system (as perverse as it is) is THAT unfair. In terms of preventing a majority, sure, of course it is. But in terms of fairness and representation, by the time the two systems are combined, they kind of balance each other out. If you look at the overall resultant make-up of parliament relative to the overall voting percentages, it is broadly proportional by the time it all works itself out. Far more than Westminster.


I guess the only true PR would be to do away with constituencies and regions altogether and just go for a straight percentage of vote to percentage of parliament. But changes a whole lot of other things and might not be operational really.
 
BobKowalski said:
So, SNP strong in Scotland, Labour strong in Wales, Tories strong in England and in NI everyone unhappy with the situation foisted on them.

Bodes well for our Union. Not.
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Bloody silly to split up such a small island, but if that is what they want so be it.

There would have to be changes to the borders though judging by the voting.
  • Wales would have to be split vertically down the middle to North of the southern counties with independent Wales consisting of the West coast and Anglesey.
  • The Scottish border would have to be moved North above Galloway, Dunfriesshire, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire. Also the Orkney and Shetland Islands would remain part of the union.
  • Northern Island would be absorbed into Eire, no problems with that as far as I am concerned.
Personally giving NI, Wales and Scotland their own parliaments was asking for trouble. What if Scouseland was granted the same privilege?
 
Interesting BBC narrative on BBC Breakfast - clearly mandated from Downing St - seeking to divide a vote for the SNP from independence views... the two things are now separate. Maybe they are but Scotland’s future is for Scotland to decide. The UK would never have allowed European politicians to head over here to campaign for Remain in the Brexit poll...
 
Gray said:
Bloody silly to split up such a small island, but if that is what they want so be it.

There would have to be changes to the borders though judging by the voting.
  • Wales would have to be split vertically down the middle to North of the southern counties with independent Wales consisting of the West coast and Anglesey.
  • The Scottish border would have to be moved North above Galloway, Dunfriesshire, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire. Also the Orkney and Shetland Islands would remain part of the union.
  • Northern Island would be absorbed into Eire, no problems with that as far as I am concerned.
Personally giving NI, Wales and Scotland their own parliaments was asking for trouble. What if Scouseland was granted the same privilege?
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"Personally giving NI, Wales and Scotland their own parliaments was asking for trouble."

Therein lies the whole problem.
 
Dave Ewing's Back 'eader said:
Are yer desperate for a slice of the 'regional fund' currently spread between eastern 'n southern Europe?

*Deep-fired Mars bars tell us a different story, mp!
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Ah, here we go again. Because a few people like or make DFM, does not a nation make. It's like me saying all English people Morris Dance, because some people Morris Dance. Or, all English people cut about dressed a Pearly Kings, because some do. I have never eaten one, I have never seen any place making one and if someone offered me one I would give them the look.

As for the Regional Fund, if as being part of the EU again, please almighty Thor, and certain areas of our country qualified for it, then yes of course. I used to work on European transnational stuff and see the benefits of it. So, we will be fine, we will be happier, we will be free of Tory fucking Toffs telling us how we can live. These last ten years of these bastards lording it over us has taken its toll. Now don't get me wrong, there are fucking plenty of forelock tuggers and those who just love to bend the knee to the monarchy, to the Fleg etc, I view them as my ancestors would have viewed those lowland Scots who took the English gold to betray their own country. Cunts. It may very well be a difficult transition. But by fuck it hasn't been a bed of roses under Tories, Thatcher, may she burn in hell, destroyed our economic infrastructure, and every single **** of them that followed added a bit of misery. We will be in charge and yes, we will make mistakes, we will fuck things up, but we will always try to make it better. Our purpose will be to take decisions that helps our people, our industries, our relations with others. That is worth fighting for. And as a guest in my house at least, you will never find a fried mars bar, you would find a warm welcome, a place near the fire, a meal, a drink, a good conversation, a song or two and a promise that if I can help you in anyway I would. And that would be repeated across our country.
 
Boris will agree to give a referedum....


To Northern Ireland because he's a trolling **** and "the bantz" will put his poll ratings up with the Gammonati.
 
Fame Monster said:
I think you can pretty much sum up Scottish politics by saying, if in doubt, blame the English. The other 1% of issues sort themselves out.
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No. We don't blame the English. We blame the Tories who treat us like a fiefdom. We blame the BBC for for their bias. We blame forelock tugging Scots who love bending the knee and buy the shit about being too poor. I have more in common with English people who hate Tories than I ever could with those grovelling, spineless bastards and was the reason for the majority of my life I opposed Indy. I like the English and totally accept they en masse vote differently. I just wish the same courtesy would be extended to us as we haven't voted for Tories to run the show since 1955.
 
Magicpole said:
. . . . . ..

And as a guest in my house at least, you will never find a fried mars bar, you would find a warm welcome, a place near the fire, a meal, a drink, a good conversation, a song or two and a promise that if I can help you in anyway I would. And that would be repeated across our country.
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That's very kind of yer, mp, but can I bring my Morris Dancing kit and do a wee jig while yer sing to me!
 
Best thing Boris can do now is give Nicola a time limit to draw up a manifesto for INDref2. Get the referendum done and abide by result. Start negotiations with EU regarding keeping the Euro. This will not end until the Scots are their own masters. Let them get on with it IMO anyway.
 
Just short of a majority which does undermine Sturgeons absolute claim to mounting IndyRef2 but in her shoes I'd call it and then take Johnson to the courts - he already has 9 investigations into him, his party and his conduct so at some stage questions will have to be asked about when is he actually running the country if he is spending all his time in front of a judge or a committee?
 
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