The Title Race - 2021/22

[rowarta]

Said this in another thread:

Next 9 games to see out this calendar year are what we would call winnable if the best version of ourselves shows up, that'd put us on a 10 game winning streak:
Everton (H)
Aston Villa (A)
West Ham (H)
Watford (A)
Wolves (H)
Leeds (H)
Newcastle (A)
Leicester (H)
Brentford (A)



We're out of the League Cup and pretty much through in the Champions League, so no excuses. Max points has to be the focus here, do that and we'll be out in front on our own.

Pep always goes on about the winter period, November to Feb, being the most difficult. I think not having the 4 Caraboa games in Dec, Jan, Feb should help us

 

[Agueroooo9320]

If you subscribe to xG, then Chelsea are massively overperforming. They're scoring far more than they're expected to and they're conceding far less than they should. And historically, teams that overperform these stats as much as Chelsea do don't tend to keep it up for a full season (although it's happened).

By these fronts, City followed by Liverpool are the two teams that should be out ahead.

this is true but usually this happens because they have one or two players who have unbelievable shot conversion, like when Liverpool did with mane and salah. but i don't think chelsea have those kind of players. lukaku for all his strength is not that clinincal

 

[Manchester33]

It's always hard to tell at this point in the season. Our average points after the first 11 games has us finishing on 79. But we've played Chelsea, Liverpool, United, Leicester and Spurs away. Our problems have come mainly in the 'lesser' games though (Southampton and Palace). I think we'll finish around 85 points.

With Chelsea having the club world cup and Liverpool losing Salah and Mane to AFCON for a few weeks, I think their squads might struggle come the run in.

United are no-where near good enough and hopefully West Ham can cling on to the 4th Champions League spot.

 

[Agueroooo9320]

85 points will win it no question

 

[Octavian]

Two horse race after today. We’ll easily finish 10-12 points above Liverpool. Ole is clueless and has already sunk their season and they haven’t even dumped him yet. West Ham are obviously no threat to us.

So us and Chelsea. I just don’t see them topping us over a full campaign.

Long way to go yet.

Anyone can implode and anyone can put a series of results together.

We should be outright favourites mind you.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Two horse race after today. We’ll easily finish 10-12 points above Liverpool. Ole is clueless and has already sunk their season and they haven’t even dumped him yet. West Ham are obviously no threat to us.

So us and Chelsea. I just don’t see them topping us over a full campaign.

That's writing Liverpool off far too quickly, in my opinion. They'll be there or thereabouts.
However, I shall recognise one scenario which would put the kibosh on them. If you look into it, Salah's injury record in his time with them has been downright supernatural. The guy plays every game, and the guy is virtually never injured! It's just weird. Mane has nearly as good a track record, although there have been periods of say four weeks in the odd season when he's been out for them. If one of them is out for four weeks or more, it would seriously hamper them. If both are out, that's it.
Chelsea don't depend to anything like the same extent on one or two players, and we certainly don't. As we proved the year we won the treble without Kevin for most of the season.
West Ham don't have the squad to go deep into the league cup, the Europa league, and mount a serious title challenge. If they're fighting on all three fronts, it will do them in in the end.

 

[waspish]

That's writing Liverpool off far too quickly, in my opinion. They'll be there or thereabouts.
However, I shall recognise one scenario which would put the kibosh on them. If you look into it, Salah's injury record in his time with them has been downright supernatural. The guy plays every game, and the guy is virtually never injured! It's just weird. Mane has nearly as good a track record, although there have been periods of say four weeks in the odd season when he's been out for them. If one of them is out for four weeks or more, it would seriously hamper them. If both are out, that's it.
Chelsea don't depend to anything like the same extent on one or two players, and we certainly don't. As we proved the year we won the treble without Kevin for most of the season.
West Ham don't have the squad to go deep into the league cup, the Europa league, and mount a serious title challenge. If they're fighting on all three fronts, it will do them in in the end.

If salah and mane go to the African nation cup they could drop more points

 

[canadianblue]

I know it seems early to write them off, but they always slump Dec/Jan (except for the year they won it all) and the ANC will hurt them this year. They've always relied on a quick start to make up for their thin squad and they haven't got it this year. I'm quite confident they won't threaten us.

 

[Shaffer92]

I know it seems early to write them off, but they always slump Dec/Jan (except for the year they won it all) and the ANC will hurt them this year. They've always relied on a quick start to make up for their thin squad and they haven't got it this year. I'm quite confident they won't threaten us.

I'm not worried about Liverpool at all. They simply don't have the depth. It will come down to a two horse race between us and Chelsea.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

I know it seems early to write them off, but they always slump Dec/Jan (except for the year they won it all) and the ANC will hurt them this year. They've always relied on a quick start to make up for their thin squad and they haven't got it this year. I'm quite confident they won't threaten us.

I admit I had forgotten the ANC. That will surely affect them. If we have a good December run — as we should — then I think it'll be ours to lose.