The US Presidential Election 2012

[Matty]

Given the topics of conversation in The Cellar, X Factor, Derren Brown, ex-girlfriends, music etc I suppose something as potentially important as the next leader of America is easy to forget about!

With tomorrow being election day by this time on Wednesday we may well have a new president, or the same one again for a further 4 years. Whilst not professing to be an expert on politics, let alone politics in another country, I do find it quite a scary prospect that someone like Mitt Romney could be President of the USA. His politics, and his personal opinions, seem to be fairly clear for all to see, screw the majority, screw the population as a whole, as long as the stinkingly rich (himself included) are ok then that's fine.

People are dumb, voters in the main are dumb. For tens of millions of Americans it doesn't matter what Romney or Obama stand up and say. Romney could stand up and introduce a policy to remove the thumbs of every person whose name begins with a vowel and there would be tens of millions of Republicans who would step out tomorrow and cast their vote for the Republican candidate. The same is true of Obama and the die hard Democrate voters. Politicians only need to appeal to the (relatively) small number of undecided or floating voters, it's worrying that these "undecided" people may well be drawn to Romney, who is essentially McCain but with better PR and without the car crash that is/was Sarah Palin. Obama is by no means the knight riding in to save America, but you've got to believe his aims, and his policies, will benefit far more ordinary Americans than Romney's.

With US Voting, on the face of it it's a simple procedure to decide a president, the first one to achieve 270 electoral college votes. Each state have their own assigned number of votes, based I believe on population. So Wyoming for example has just 3 votes whereas California has 55. The general consensus however is that of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) there are only 12 "swing states" still in play. The other 39 look, according to the polls, to have a fairly clear winner. This means there are only 151 votes still effectively up for grabs with Obama having a narrow 196 to 191 lead from the (almost) certainties. The states (and votes) up for grabs still are:-

Nevada - 6 Votes (Obama)
Colorado - 9 Votes (Obama)
New Mexico - 5 Votes (Obama)
Iowa - 6 Votes (Obama)
Wisconsin - 10 Votes (Obama)
Michigan - 16 Votes (Obama)
Ohio - 18 Votes (Romney)
Pennsylvania - 20 Votes (Obama)
New Hampshire - 4 Votes (Obama)
Virginia - 13 Votes (Romney)
North Carolina - 15 Votes (Romney)
Florida - 29 Votes (Romney)

Obviously some of these are far more valuable than others. If for example Obama was to win in Florida and Pennsylvania he'd get 49 votes, whereas if he were to win in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin he'd only have 40. According to polls Obama is leading in most of these swing states, but only by very small margins, within the recognised "error" band so such a small lead as to be potentially reversable by simply error in calculation/collation.

Personally I think Obama will win, and if I had to guess I'd go for a margin of 272 to 266, extremely close indeed, and probably dragging on for the rest of the week, with legal challenges in closer states. As you can see above, even though I've guessed/predicted Obama will win 8 of the 12 "swing states" he'll only pick up 76 votes to Romney's 75 as Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida each carry a decent number of votes.

So, what do people think? Are we getting 4 more years of Obama, or 4 years of a megarich religious maniac who hates almost 50% of Americans, thinks airplane windows should be openable, doesn't believe Global Warming is caused by man and who essentially takes both sides of the agument in as many cases as possible so as to appeal to everyone whilst giving no-one any idea what he will actually do?

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Nearly 4/1 for romney to win now

 

[BoyBlue_1985]

I honestly think these muppets could vote in Romney. Im stunned that I am even saying that because 8 weeks ago he might as well have conceded the race.
Christ too many innocent people will die if he gets in charge

 

[TheMightyQuinn]

Anyone called 'Mitt' has to be suspect.

A cursory glance over his rap sheet kind of proves he's a total piece of work.

Obama is clearly just a stooge but he looked cool in that leather jacket last week.

It's the same old story with US politics. On the one side you have the gay haters, the women haters and the racists and on the other side you've got a misfit collection of reasonably nice blokes with amusing faces/character traits and very little political clout/nous.

Not much different to WWE really.

If a man called 'Mitt' is president, I'd probably expect nuclear war to be imminent.

 

[Bigga]

Anyone called 'Mitt' has to be suspect.

A cursory glance over his rap sheet kind of proves he's a total piece of work.

Obama is clearly just a stooge but he looked cool in that leather jacket last week.

It's the same old story with US politics. On the one side you have the gay haters, the women haters and the racists and on the other side you've got a misfit collection of reasonably nice blokes with amusing faces/character traits and very little political clout/nous.

Not much different to WWE really.

If a man called 'Mitt' is president, I'd probably expect nuclear war to be imminent.

Finally, I have to ask, cos we've had around 4 years of this comment from you that Pres 'O' is "just a stooge"; how do you come to this assessment/ conclusion??

And can you put that in evidence for the board?

Ta.

 

[SWP's back]

So, what do people think? Are we getting 4 more years of Obama, or 4 years of a megarich religious maniac who hates almost 50% of Americans, thinks airplane windows should be openable, doesn't believe Global Warming is caused by man and who essentially takes both sides of the agument in as many cases as possible so as to appeal to everyone whilst giving no-one any idea what he will actually do?

Lol, which one do you want to win Matty?

 

[BoyBlue_1985]

In fairness it like picking shit or shitter

 

[TheMightyQuinn]

Anyone called 'Mitt' has to be suspect.

A cursory glance over his rap sheet kind of proves he's a total piece of work.

Obama is clearly just a stooge but he looked cool in that leather jacket last week.

It's the same old story with US politics. On the one side you have the gay haters, the women haters and the racists and on the other side you've got a misfit collection of reasonably nice blokes with amusing faces/character traits and very little political clout/nous.

Not much different to WWE really.

If a man called 'Mitt' is president, I'd probably expect nuclear war to be imminent.

Finally, I have to ask, cos we've had around 4 years of this comment from you that Pres 'O' is "just a stooge"; how do you come to this assessment/ conclusion??

And can you put that in evidence for the board?

Ta.

He's the president of the United States of America, he's a stooge, they all are. The fact he's black doesn't render him above suspicion.

Also, not to be contrary but given that Ronald Reagan was once President, as was George W Bush, it's not really a position I hold in any great esteem.

Obama comes across well, he's likeable, as was Clinton, he's got an every man appeal to him but he's guilty by association. They all are.

 

[Matty]

So, what do people think? Are we getting 4 more years of Obama, or 4 years of a megarich religious maniac who hates almost 50% of Americans, thinks airplane windows should be openable, doesn't believe Global Warming is caused by man and who essentially takes both sides of the agument in as many cases as possible so as to appeal to everyone whilst giving no-one any idea what he will actually do?

Lol, which one do you want to win Matty?

Damn, I thought I hid it well!

As with most elections it's all about picking the "least worst" candidate rather than the best. You can't trust politicians, not a single one of them. I believe Obama is more interested in the welfare of Americans than Romney, and I think Romney's attitude to foreign policy could be dangerous in the extreme.

 

[Santiago Street]

Regardless of your politics I find it cringeworthy the way the British left wing media led by the appalling BBC portray any Republican candidate as an intellectually challenged right wing ogre.

I find it equally cringeworthy and indicative of the real state of racial equality that Obama is lauded for being a black president rather than judged on his record. Who cares that he's black.

I'm on Barack at 1.26 - generous price, fill your bags gentlemen