US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[mancboy]

Very low turnout in the <25 age bracket. Bad for Harris.

most of em arent out of bed yet

 

[mrbelfry]

FPTP says hi…

Screw UEFA. They tried to get us once. They'll fail again

 

[chesterbells]

You are most welcome. Also I enjoy seeing what folks from countries like the UK think about our elections. Glad to see most of BM doesn't want to see Trump elected any more than I do (I know Manchester has a history of supporting Labour, but my impression is there are even plenty of Tory voters that don't particularly want Trump in power)

Yes, I’m not sure it’s a straightforward overlay or transfer from UK politics to the US. I think there is definitely a complicating factor from the Republicans against Trump element, or even those who still support him but still ‘hold their nose’, which as you say, plays out from a UK angle too.

I was hearing analysis yesterday which maintained that he hasn’t really attempted to reach out beyond his base at all, that he’s not about swaying wavering voters in that sense. Instead he’s all about getting those who already support him to actually vote.

 

[SkyBlueAmerican]

Yes, I’m not sure it’s a straightforward overlay or transfer from UK politics to the US. I think there is definitely a complicating factor from the Republicans against Trump element, or even those who still support him but still ‘hold their nose’, which as you say, plays out from a UK angle too.

I was hearing analysis yesterday which maintained that he hasn’t really attempted to reach out beyond his base at all, that he’s not about swaying wavering voters in that sense. Instead he’s all about getting those who already support him to actually vote.

Yeah - I don't pretend to be any kind of expert on UK politics, but I do know that your Tories and our Republicans are pretty different.

You're mostly right about him not reaching beyond his base. He HAS made inroads with certain groups beyond his usual base but I think those are mostly the kinds of people who are swinging to him organically rather than as a result of a targeted effort.

Ultimately, it'll probably come down to turnout rather than "who changed the most minds."

 

[SWP's back]

Interesting defence here Elon.

 

[SWP's back]

My prediction of final battleground vote shares:

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump)
Georgia - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Michigan - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Nevada - 49 - 50 (Trump)
North Carolina - 48 - 50 (Trump)
Pennsylvania - 50 - 48 (Harris)
Wisconsin - 50 - 48 (Harris)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 286
MAGA - 252

Kamala Harris wins the election.

Pessimist.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Thanks for that, had forgotten about them - will they broadcast the regular NBC coverage or do their own do you reckon?

I pick it up on Apple Podcasts during the night ....

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Anyone got any good suggestions for which network to go with to watch/listen/follow this later on?

Choice of 3 in the UK but I'm going with CNN.

They were brilliant with graphics and explanations last election.

 

[SWP's back]

I’ve been convinced Trump will win for about two years and I’m not changing my mind now sadly.

It’s so tight and the polls always under estimate the right wing vote.

Hope I’m wrong and the “nauseously optimistic” Harris campaign’s numbers are right.

Your middle paragraph is not accurate.

Good news is you’ll be happy to be wrong, don’t stress, she’ll get over 300 EC votes.

 

[SkyBlueAmerican]

Your middle paragraph is not accurate.

Good news is you’ll be happy to be wrong, don’t stress, she’ll get over 300 EC votes.

Yeah - obviously there is a history of polls underestimating the GOP vote, but they also underestimated the Dem vote in our midterm elections in 2022

And this year has been a very challenging landscape for pollsters