I was saying for weeks that we need 71 points, but a week or so back I downgraded that to 69/70. But after last weekend's tremendous result by Sunderland, I am dropping it even further.
PROVIDING we beat Spurs at home, I think 68 points will be enough. Here's why:
If we can win 3 games, we are on 68.
Liverpool will surely lose to Chelsea away, so the MOST they can get is 67 if they win every other game.
I don't see Spurs coming out of Arsenal / Chelsea / Man U with more than 1 point. All of those teams are still in the title race and will be going all out to beat Spurs and they will do so. That means if we beat Spurs, even if they win at Bolton and Burnley, they will finish on maximum 65. We could even lose to them and still clinch 4th if our GD is better than theirs, which I expect it will be by then.
Villa need to win 4 and draw 2 to get 68 points, but their GD is not going to catch ours. They aren't going to win 5 and draw 1 when you look at their fixture list. They have us to play away and they have Birmingham and Everton as well. They aren't going to win every game.
We are in the chair, lads! :-)