The country is already heading into a recession and the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, which means food, fuel, and energy prices will remain high into next year, and that means inflation will continue to ride high, too. However, there is just no money to solve the current problems or to stimulate growth, and the country is already nearing a public debt crisis. These things have been known in Westminster for months.
There is also no plan within the party on how to deal with the post-Brexit realities. There’s no plan on the right of the party and no plan on the centre/left of the party, and there is deep distrust between both sides. That does not bode well for the remainder of the term.
By 2025, the Conservatives will also have been in power for 15 years, and fighting as the incumbent against the abovementioned backdrop. They also know that electoral fatigue has an inevitable impact on the voters and that Starmer cannot be portrayed as the bogeyman Corbyn was.
All of these things are known within the party and quite a few have acknowledged that it’s running out of energy and ideas and needs time out of office to recharge and rethink.