Fixing our 4-1-2-3 (rant, opinion, aguero, and theory discussion).

[Ell-ano]

I agree, I don't think Aguero needs replacing but in previous seasons Dzeko and Negredo certainly gave us a different, more physical plan B when needed, so maybe someone in that vein? Andrea Belotti maybe? Fullbacks are an absolute must, for me Clichy, Zab and Bac will be gone which frees space and gets the average age and wages down if nothing else (although it will be sad to see them go, Zab especially) I've seen Henrichs linked which would fit (a young, technical, attacking full back) and 2 more would do. The midfield should hold if Gundogan stays fit, although I would like to see a long term Silva replacement, someone like B. Silva or Isco. I think it's almost beyond doubt that a new keeper will be coming in to replace Bravo, I think he'll stay as No.2 and Willy released.

 

[cadds92]

I agree, I don't think Aguero needs replacing but in previous seasons Dzeko and Negredo certainly gave us a different, more physical plan B when needed, so maybe someone in that vein? Andrea Belotti maybe? Fullbacks are an absolute must, for me Clichy, Zab and Bac will be gone which frees space and gets the average age and wages down if nothing else (although it will be sad to see them go, Zab especially) I've seen Henrichs linked which would fit (a young, technical, attacking full back) and 2 more would do. The midfield should hold if Gundogan stays fit, although I would like to see a long term Silva replacement, someone like B. Silva or Isco. I think it's almost beyond doubt that a new keeper will be coming in to replace Bravo, I think he'll stay as No.2 and Willy released.

I just don't see Pep going into next season and thinking I need a big lad for a plan B.

Plus Belotti has had a season that probably justifies him moving to a bigger club where he will start or at least be first choice, which at City he won't.

 

[cleavers]

Let's go back to 2013/2014 to when we won the league. We played two strikers with a balanced / attack oriented midfield (Dezko, Aguero, and Negredo combined for 42 league goals, and we got 40 from yaya, silva, nasri, and fernandinho. We had goal scoring threats everywhere. We won the league and then opted to change the direction of the club and went from two strikers to a front three of David Silva, Aguero, and Jesus Navas (???)....(????) People have been complaining about the defense for three years now but the biggest issue for me was the attack. In what world does a front three with dave, kun, and navas seems like a better long term option? Or even Kevin for that matter. Waste!

We made the switch....scored 19 less. Our midfield scored 40 MP's first year and also scored 40 after the switch but we lost out on the goals from Dezko/Negredo. Yaya, Vinnie, Zaba we're always going to get older and regress but the last year and a half of MP's tenure was a slow death that I saw coming a mile away because of the lacy of dynamism in our attack. Year two of the experiment saw even more regression despite picking up Raz and Kevin! We lost the 5-10 goals per year from Nasri/Milner, yaya stopped scoring, and bony was a disgrace! We SCORED 2!, 2!, from our wingers Navas and Silva. We we're incredibly lucky that Kevin and Kelechi performed over expectation.

This takes us to year three and Pep's first season. We finally have proper wingers in Sane and Sterling. We somehow pulled off Gabriel Jesus and that still blows my mind. We also picked up Nolito, which I was so happy to see because it was going to spell the end for Navas. FINALLY. He has 1 goal in his last 82 appearances! I'm not sure he's ever won a penalty and only has 15 assists in the last three years combined! Things appeared to be looking up. I thought the additions of Nolito and Sane we're brilliant because it would put Silva/KDB back into the midfield where they belong. Unfortunately we're on pace for 74 goals and that isn't the improvement I was expecting. At all. We've gone 102, 83, 71, and now ~74. What makes this season even more frustrating is that Dave is back to himself (many we're writing him off), we we're expecting nothing from yaya and he covered for gundogan's injury, Aguero/Raz/KDB/Silva/yaya all stayed healthy, we we're lucky that AK turned into a serviceable CB, sane/gj surpassed expectations, and Aguero has adapted to the system better than I assumed. All of this and we've won nothing and we're sweating out top 4.

Let's take a look at our record vs top teams over the last two years. Last year we went 0w 7l 3d, this year we went 2w 3L 3D. That's 2 w's, 10 L's, and 6 d's! At this point...we are what we are. We have too much individual talent to be this poor vs equal competition so what's the deal? Fullbacks will go a long, long way and that will be sorted out. A GK is necessary, and I think we'll be in for a CB too. There's obviously so much value that we'll add here. But, I think we're having so much difficulty with the top teams because we're predictable and unbalanced on offense. We aren't hard to game plan for at all. Our fowards are linking up poorly and don't assist/create for each other, our midfield doesn't score, and we aren't a threat on set pieces. Our goals come from the occasional terrible defensive blunder and off of the counter. It's a pretty simple gameplan to beat us really. Sit back and wait for us to overplay with our pressing and hit us on the counter. We aren't a threat on corners, we aren't a threat on crosses into the box, and we don't like to shoot 'bad shots'. Just don't turn it over and the top players on top teams will take their chances against us when we get caught. We're also entirely too reliant on KDB. Some would add Aguero but I strongly disagree. Negredo bagged 23 in 49 as the second option. Kelchi has 21 in 50 and many of those games are as a late sub. GJ fit in like a glove.

We'll end up with about 17-20 goals from our midfielders. We used to get 30-40. That's a product of the system change obviously but that has to be made up somewhere. I have my doubts about a Gundogan, KDB, and silva midfield. Does it lack dynamism? Maybe. I think we definitely need a young highly skilled player like Isco or Bernardo Silva on the bench though. We're a KDB or Dave injury away from a total disaster.

If we're going to take the next step in our progression then Kun has to go. Sterling, Kun, and Sane combined for 28 goals, 7 assists. That's not even close to where it needs to be. Chelsea has 38/17. Bayern 40/20 and I'm not even going to look up RM or Bayern. We need Sanchez or Mbappe, imo. Badly.

I trust in Pep and the system but we've got more questions going into next season than I would have liked. What an incredibly important summer we have coming up.

From my POV..
1) We 100% need fullbacks.
2) We need a dynamic world class forward that's more fluid/well rounded than aguero.
3) A Pivot/DM to replace yaya/fernandinho. Tolliso would be perfect. Weigl too. I don't know enough about Carvlaho.
4) A Keeper.
5) A CM like isco/bernardo silva. Preferably a second with WC potential in the same vein as Sane/GJ. I'm incredibly disappointed that Aleix G wasn't giving a chance. I hope he get's his chance and that Pep isn't giving him the Kelechi treatment (as in he's not goo enough)
6) A CB.

I think that the switch to our formation with wings was the right long term decision but the transition hasn't been as smooth as we would have liked. We're trying to compete with Lewa/Robben/Ribbery, Bale/Benzema/Ronaldo, and Neymar/suarez/messi and even Hazard/Costa/willian for that matter. We have to get Sanchez or Mbappe in. We've gotten it right with Sane, Sterling, Kevin, GJ and potentially stones so I'm optimistic. The difficulty is getting 5, 6, maybe even up to 8 correctly in one window.

You'd be better emithering Pep than posting on here, f**k all anyone on here can do.

 

[pee dubya]

I just don't see Pep going into next season and thinking I need a big lad for a plan B.

Plus Belotti has had a season that probably justifies him moving to a bigger club where he will start or at least be first choice, which at City he won't.

If he wants he can just bring Unal back and park him on the bench rather spending however many millions on a back-up plan.

In fact it might make sense, give Unal a few chances and see if he can take them. If not i'm sure we could find a loan for him in January given how he's done this season.

 

[Pingu the Penguin]

2 fullbacks (at least), a CB, and a Gk. They are the priorities. We're stacked with attack minded players.