Who knows! The reality is that City had to announce their initial criteria based around the numbers who initially asked for UEFA codes. The overall percentage of those who asked for a code, to those who then purchase is anyone's guess!
I think there would clearly have been a high percentage take up for those who applied and are eligible in this 1st tranche, as those are the folk whom logic says attend most City games. As the points fall in each category, I think the financial and inconvenience consideration comes into play more.
If City hadn't persisted with this 40% cream off to to 'Various Groups', then I feel certain that all Seasoncard holders and possibly certain members would have got a shot! In fact it's still possible, and as Alex had already indicated, with some of the OSC allocation being returned. In fact more yet, of that 8,000 'syphoned off' ticket allocation, may well come back into the points allocated pool, as I am certain they won’t all be 'Sponsor' allocated freebies, and a good majority will have required paying for by whoever may have been offered them.