I disagree, I think there's a very good chance he wins reelection. Once the democrats nominate somebody the Fox machine will bring up some minor issue or lie and blow it out of proportion so much that it'll be all the mainstream media talks about. Look at how they labeled John Kerry a coward for his service in Vietnam while getting a draft dodger elected. You just mention Sen. Elizabeth Warren to anybody and the first thing they say is "Fake Indian" or "Pocahontas".
The other problem is that the GOP has perfected the "They're all crooks and my vote doesn't matter anyway" message. People literally believe that there's no difference between a neo-nazi sympathizer and a person who wants to improve healthcare and increase wages for American workers. This tactic really hurts the Democrats who are usually younger and more prone to wanting to be rebellious or "cool" so they either don't vote or make some moronic moral stand and vote for a 3rd party candidate (imagine where we'd be if Ralph Nader wouldn't have run in 2000?). GOP voters come out in droves for big elections no matter what.
It basically comes down to the fact that Americans have become painfully stupid and instead of being ashamed of it they're actually proud of it. It's the cult of ignorance, people believe that their ignorance is as valid as someone else's intelligence. They each vote and one vote is worth exactly as much as the other. Also, the religious-right is pretty much standing by Dumb Donald which is a massive advantage in American politics.
That's an awfully large brush!
America is multiple different countries all rolled up into one. In general, we are rural, urban and suburban, and we are essentially racially homogenous over about 80% of the country outside the large urban areas. There are pockets of population thathabe variously, and correctly, identified as "guns and butter" and a "basket of deplorables," but using those terms only allows them to be used against you with people you never intended. It would be nonsens eto suggest that there are not "guns and butter" voters, and I think we are seeing a sliver of the "basket of deplorables" firsthand.
Unfortunately, with unlimited, and virtually unfettered, finances in American politics, we are rapidly approaching the point where we literally purchase politicians to execute the policies of the ultra rich. It is abundantly clear that we have just gone through a cycle where Wall Street won, but the victory was described as a win for Main Street! Yeah, sure, if Main Street is people with millions invested in the stock market and living off barely taxed capital gains. We even have CEOs who request their income as stock, just so that they pay less than half the normal tax on their income.
We do have a large swath of uneducated and academically ignorant people who get up every morning, put in a uniform or jeans and a work shirt, sweat their asses off, go home, grab a bite to eat, go to bed and get up and do it all over again. They do this to eek out an existence that they can feel proud of. They live off their labour. They despise people on benefits, even though they get multiple tax breaks of their own and often never pay taxes themselves. They simply don't believe in handouts...and the right wing machine pounds the picture of the urban (read: usually black) loafer living off benefits, driving around in his SUV with 22" rims and hanging out all day doing nothing down their throats. Ignore the fact that most people on benefits in America are white!
We are a paradoxical country. We are ridiculously simple, yet complicated enough that multimillion dollar political consultants and the most invasive media in the world could not decode the pulse of the nation on Nov 8th. We send men to the Moon, yet can't figure out how to get healthcare to everyone, like other countries, without bankrupting the nation!
