NorCalBlue
Well-Known Member
Having spent the last few hours trawling through every competitive United game this season to gather data on goals scored, team goals scored and conceded, and minutes played by all four main strikers, (a) I feel dirty, and (b) I’ve come to the conclusion that Hernandez is their most effective striker and Welbeck, well, isn't.
So how did I reach this conclusion? Well, it turns out that if you look at goals scored per game (assuming 94 minutes per game), Hernandez has the highest scoring rate whereas Welbeck can’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo.
Goals per game (total games): Hernandez 0.76 (22.4), van Persie 0.71 (40.6), Rooney 0.53 (30.2), Welbeck 0.08 (23.7)
But perhaps Welbeck offers something else to the team instead of actually scoring goals (this is usually the line trotted out by Ferguson)? You can get a measure of what a player contributes to the team by looking at team goals for and against when each striker is on the field (this takes account of support play, assists, stretching the defence, keeping possession, harrying opposition defenders, etc.).
Team goals per game, for/against (difference): Hernandez 2.23/1.07 (1.16), Rooney 2.22/1.06 (1.16), van Persie 2.14/1.13 (1.01), Welbeck 1.77/1.10 (0.68)
So United concede about the same number of goals regardless of which striker plays (just over 1 goal/game), which means that Welbeck doesn't do anything extra to help them defensively. In terms of attacking, they score about the same number of goals when van Persie, Rooney, or Hernandez play, but they score considerably less when Welbeck’s on the pitch (about half a goal per game). This means that his general play really doesn’t make up for his lack of goals, and consequently, the team goal difference is much less when he plays.
So there you have it; Hernandez is their most effective striker and Welbeck's shit. But the important thing here is that no one let’s this information get back to United. As long as they think he’s brilliant, they’ll keep playing him and he’ll keep holding them back while we try to catch up (God knows how soon they’d have won the league this year if they’d f**ked him off at the start of the season and just played the other three). So shhh!, loose lips sink ships and all that.
p.s. the same goes for Cleverley.
So how did I reach this conclusion? Well, it turns out that if you look at goals scored per game (assuming 94 minutes per game), Hernandez has the highest scoring rate whereas Welbeck can’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo.
Goals per game (total games): Hernandez 0.76 (22.4), van Persie 0.71 (40.6), Rooney 0.53 (30.2), Welbeck 0.08 (23.7)
But perhaps Welbeck offers something else to the team instead of actually scoring goals (this is usually the line trotted out by Ferguson)? You can get a measure of what a player contributes to the team by looking at team goals for and against when each striker is on the field (this takes account of support play, assists, stretching the defence, keeping possession, harrying opposition defenders, etc.).
Team goals per game, for/against (difference): Hernandez 2.23/1.07 (1.16), Rooney 2.22/1.06 (1.16), van Persie 2.14/1.13 (1.01), Welbeck 1.77/1.10 (0.68)
So United concede about the same number of goals regardless of which striker plays (just over 1 goal/game), which means that Welbeck doesn't do anything extra to help them defensively. In terms of attacking, they score about the same number of goals when van Persie, Rooney, or Hernandez play, but they score considerably less when Welbeck’s on the pitch (about half a goal per game). This means that his general play really doesn’t make up for his lack of goals, and consequently, the team goal difference is much less when he plays.
So there you have it; Hernandez is their most effective striker and Welbeck's shit. But the important thing here is that no one let’s this information get back to United. As long as they think he’s brilliant, they’ll keep playing him and he’ll keep holding them back while we try to catch up (God knows how soon they’d have won the league this year if they’d f**ked him off at the start of the season and just played the other three). So shhh!, loose lips sink ships and all that.
p.s. the same goes for Cleverley.
