Post Match Thread: Election 2017

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inbetween said:
There is no such thing as a minority government, you cannot govern if you aren't able to govern..

What is the point in proposing legislation only for Labour to vote it down, what is the point in Labour proposing legislation only for the Tories to vote it down. The end result is always zero and what is the point in not having a functional government able to do anything at perhaps the most pivotal point in our recent history.

The DUP were democratically elected and their offering will be on confidence meaning they won't have any ability to chuck in stuff into the agenda.
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There have been minority governments in the past, most recently in 1974. They don't usually last long but is it likely that a Tory/DUP alliance will last the course? Even if they don't fall out there's the risk of losing seats at by elections, losing key votes due to rebellions (especially over Brexit), sick MPs not being able to vote etc. A minority Tory government might be able to limp along for nearly as long if Sinn Feinn don't take their seats and they call the DUP's bluff. Will the DUP really vote to bring down the government and put Corbyn in power?

If the Tories do have to fight an election in the next couple of years, I think they have a better chance if they don't stand accused of bribing the DUP.
 
cibaman said:
There have been minority governments in the past, most recently in 1974. They don't usually last long but is it likely that a Tory/DUP alliance will last the course? Even if they don't fall out there's the risk of losing seats at by elections, losing key votes due to rebellions (especially over Brexit), sick MPs not being able to vote etc. A minority Tory government might be able to limp along for nearly as long if Sinn Feinn don't take their seats and they call the DUP's bluff. Will the DUP really vote to bring down the government and put Corbyn in power?

If the Tories do have to fight an election in the next couple of years, I think they have a better chance if they don't stand accused of bribing the DUP.
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They can't fall out because the arrangement is not a coalition, it is a confidence and supply agreement. It means the DUP will agree to vote with the government whips, they have a free vote however on everything else. It just means that they are agreeing to form the majority by agreeing to vote with the government, they won't however have any say in the government as they won't have anyone in cabinet.

A minority government does not last long because it is impossible to govern. In this case a Labour minority government would require the support of 64 MP's elsewhere and that means they would require SNP, Lib Dem and also even Tory support on many things..
 
Polls on the election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40331136

Ipsos Mori (7505, before the election,weighted according to the actual results for each region):
25 to 34 age group was where Labour got the biggest swing from the Conservatives.
16 percentage points increase in under-24 voting from 2015 to 54%
Tories a 17-point lead among people with no qualifications - and a 7 pt lead with voters educated to below degree level.
Labour 15% lead amongst graduates
"The middle classes swung to Labour, while working classes swung to the Conservatives."
90% of 2015 Lab/Con voters didn't change
Labour +^5 to 54% with BME
BME turnout +6%
Remain voters: Lab/Con = 47/33
Leave voters: Con?lab = 46/39
most pro-Labour: Guardian, then Mirror

YouGov (52615 between 9-13 June):
Labour was 47 percentage points ahead among 18 and 19-year-olds
Conservatives 50 ahead among over 70s
over 70s vote 84%
"While the Conservatives' support decreases the more educated a voter is, the opposite was true for Labour and the Lib Dems,"
Labour 17% lead amongst graduates
83%/82% of 2015 Lab/Con voters didn't change
most pro-Conservative readership was the Daily Telegraph, followed by the Express and the Mail
 
The working classes swinging to the Conservatives should tell Labour all they need to know, they need to pull their finger out.
 
inbetween said:
They can't fall out because the arrangement is not a coalition, it is a confidence and supply agreement. It means the DUP will agree to vote with the government whips, they have a free vote however on everything else. It just means that they are agreeing to form the majority by agreeing to vote with the government, they won't however have any say in the government as they won't have anyone in cabinet.

A minority government does not last long because it is impossible to govern. In this case a Labour minority government would require the support of 64 MP's elsewhere and that means they would require SNP, Lib Dem and also even Tory support on many things..
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They can fall out over how much extra funding NI receives. Not just the over the deal to secure their support for the Queens Speech, or the next budget, but every fututre vote with significant financial implications. Those votes would not necessarily trigger a general election but if the Tories keep having to stump up cash for NI whenever an important vote comes round, they'll eventually decide its too big a price to pay.
 
Apparently we're now getting the deal with the DUP done after the Queen's Speech!

How much has it cost to rearrange the state opening of Parliament? And if it can then be cancelled for next year why do we bother at all?

Any bets on what Dennis Skinner will shout when Black Rod comes in?
 
Wonder if the tories might end up making a deal with the liberals?
 
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