Power Rankings in Europe

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

When I started following City nobody could have convinced me that they'd every be anywhere near the top ten let alone top three. I was ecstatic with a cup run and beating the scum at least once a year.

Exactly this ......I would never have dreamed in a month of Sundays that I would be watching City v Barcelona at home and we would be coming away with a win (i had to pinch myself that night)

 

[aguero93:20]

Another index I look at is the Euro club index:
https://www.euroclubindex.com
We are currently ranked 5th in Europe.
It also simplicticly predicts odds of individual matches and competitions. According to their predictions, there is a 95% chance of us winning the PL, and an 11% chance of us winning the CL. After each game points are awarded to change each teams ranking score.

They recently lost a lot of respect in my eyes by promoting Atleti above us and defending it on the grounds that they had drawn a game they needed to win and finished 3rd in their CL group while our heavily rotated team had lost a dead rubber against Shaktar and topped ours. This on top of our running away with the league performing best in Europe this season while they stuttered in one not performing as well.

 

[bluehousemusic]

Another index I look at is the Euro club index:
https://www.euroclubindex.com
We are currently ranked 5th in Europe.
It also simplicticly predicts odds of individual matches and competitions. According to their predictions, there is a 95% chance of us winning the PL, and an 11% chance of us winning the CL. After each game points are awarded to change each teams ranking score.

538 also quotes a 95% of us winning the league, which I'd assume would be what my own simulator would be saying if I could get someone to crack the coding fault on it.

We are 1.07-1.08 on the machine 93.45% to 92.6% with nearly £11 million matched and with large volumes on the both the back and lay sides

 

[Cobwebcat]

There are a dozen or so of these club rankings on the internet. Some are subjective (worthless) and some use interesting but flawed mathematics.

At this current time there are really only two that stand out and consistently predict club strength accurately.

These are

https://www.euroclubindex.com/

http://clubelo.com/

In my opinion,and in at least one test that I know of, clubelo is the best.

 

[bluehousemusic]

There are a dozen or so of these club rankings on the internet. Some are subjective (worthless) and some use interesting but flawed mathematics.

At this current time there are really only two that stand out and consistently predict club strength accurately.

These are

https://www.euroclubindex.com/

http://clubelo.com/

In my opinion,and in at least one test that I know of, clubelo is the best.

Could you explain why it's flawed mathematics? And also why in your opinion the above 2 rankings systems are better than 538?

 

[Tanzeylee]

every time I read the thread title all I see is power rangers in europe

 

[aguero93:20]

every time I read the thread title all I see is power rangers in europe

More likely than Glasgow Rangers tbf.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Could you explain why it's flawed mathematics? And also why in your opinion the above 2 rankings systems are better than 538?

No problem. There are many ways of calculating rankings and many ways of testing them. There are are also like minded people who are talking about these issues (geeks with mathematical brains beyond mine) but you can find quite a few articles on this subject. I'll post a couple at the bottom of this post. All these guys are constantly comparing notes including 538 people, Lars and Simon Gleave on twitter.

I actually like 538 and Nate Silver as it has quite a unique method which utilises expected goals amongst other parameters but it lets itself down using transfer values from transfermarkt. Despite its limitations I'd still have it as my third favourite because of what it is attempting to do including comparing teams across continents, which is very difficult. 538 also did a great article comparing club teams with National sides.

I used to have my own club rankings site many years ago but I gave up when I discovered http://clubelo.com/ as it did everything I was trying to do but better and it's database of results is huge.

http://www.sportingintelligence.com...s-accurately-predictable-as-you-think-260501/

http://www.few.vu.nl/~zszlavik/papers/IJAPR.pdf

If we win today City will have their highest clubelo rating of all time.

 

[Pam]

With minor corrections! ;-)


1. Barcelona (Catalonia Scum)
2. PSG (French Scum)
3. City
4. Scum
5. Spurs (London Scum)
6. Real Madrid (Spanish Scum)
7. Bayern Munich (German Scum)
8. Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukrainian Scum)
9. Napoli (S. Italian Scum)
10. Juventus (N. Italian Scum)

All scum, yes, other than City.

 

[kiam06]

PSG aren't second no chance.

Pub league that nobody watches.